OPENING DAY!

Opening Day!

I have to admit that it may be because of being busy, but I have less excitement about this opening day compared to any in a long time.  Usually there is excitement with a young player you want to see or a huge signing or just a team ready to compete at the highest level (usual for us).  However, this team is banged up at a pretty unprecedented level and there are no exciting signings or young guys stepping up.

That being said, this team is not as bad as everyone makes us out to be.  I saw some predictions of the Yankees being below .500 and I just don’t see that…even with all the injuries we are starting out with.

My main reason for optimism is that Rivera will be back for his last year!  We should treasure every single moment of this final tour of the Genius Maker and I hope he performs well.  I don’t expect the same performance as his last year, but I do feel he will be a solid/decent closer in his final year.  Soriano really did well, but I think he was fortunate and honestly lucky.  His overall performance was extremely effective, not blowing games, but you might be surprised to know his WHIP was the highest of his career since his rookie year (as long as he pitched at least 10 innings) and his OPS against was almost identical to his first year with the Yanks when he was setting up Mo (.645 in 2011 and .639 in 2012).  He put guys on and was able to wiggle out of a lot of jams.  The Yankees were very fortunate value wise that he left…even if his final product was a really good one.

The other reason for optimism is because of the entire pitching staff.  They should be very solid and while our older guys could fall off some, there are a lot of guys who could step up.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see Joba get better along with Nova and Phelps. 

While staying positive on the moves we have made…I think Youkilis is a wild card and while the coin was high, I am hoping he was banged up last year.  With the self imposed cap of 189 mil for 2014, he will not be on the books unless we want him to be and with the injury to Tex, Youk becomes a big cog in our offense.  He is a better defender than people think and hopefully the fall off was because of injuries.  I was not pleased that in his final 100 AB’s with the WS he didn’t hit well, but usually guys don’t fall off so much???  Because of the injuries, it ended up being an important signing, although I probably would have gone a different direction spending for the studs and bringing in more younger guys…but I will discuss more of that in a little bit.

I already discussed the poor choice in Ichiro; and one of my fears seems to be rearing its head in spring play and that is a guy with a terrible OBP being at the top of the lineup because he has some speed.  My philosophy is to get your OBP guys up in front of your better hitters and let her rip.  I hope Ichiro proves me wrong, but my money would have been saved and I would have let Chris Dickerson take his spot and used that money elsewhere.  Last year I wrote about us letting Maxwell go and he ended up with an excellent OPS against lefties…which is what we need now (he is better than we have now).  Then, we let Dickerson go so we can sign guys worse than him most likely?  This is my main issue with what we have been doing.  As I have said numerous times over the years; we have a payroll advantage, we should have a lot of stars, but we should have mostly stars, then you have rookies that you are grooming into one or 2 spots in the lineup and then you have specialists to fill out the roster.  These specialists are defensive wizards, speed demons or guys who crush lefties or righties.  This way when you make a move there is an advantage in doing so.  The issue I raised before is that we simply have not developed anyone and instead of seeing if a guy like Dickerson or Maxwell can develop into a specialist role (or even better) we eschew that choice with a guy with no upside as he is on the downside of his career and we are hoping to roll snake eyes just to give us about the same production as the younger guy could have done…and we do so at a higher cost.

For example, we have Ben Francisco who is supposed to be our right handed platoon against lefties, even though he is actually better against rigthties the last two years and for his career???  What is the point of that…even if he is cheap?  Why not try and develop someone?
 

Thankfully, we releases Juan Rivera as he didn’t make sense either and I actually like the Overbay signing, mostly because he is cheap but he is a specialist as he can field and be adequate against righties.

I also am OK with the Brennan Boesch move because he is 27, however, he doesn’t fill my role as a specialist because he is a left handed hitter who has been better against lefties?  At least he is 27 and has some upside.

Vernon Wells.  He has been very poor the last two years and while the cap number is OK for the 2014 hit as there won’t be one; we have put out a lot of money for a guy who by all predictions should be poor again.  So here we go trying to roll snake eyes once again and paying a lot of money for it.  Add up Ichiro, the Ben Francisco’s, the Wells and I won’t even count the heavy burden on Youkilis, along with I believe that we had to pay Juan Rivera 1 mil (not confirmed), we have roughly 15 million to spend on a real player that should be very productive!  Shoot, if you threw in Youk, then we could have enough to sign Josh Hamilton is dollars this year.  Is there anyone who wouldn’t rather Josh Hamilton over all those guys combined and filling the needs with rookies or guys we cut?  This is what I am talking about regarding poor decisions with money.

We could win 90+ games if things fall well for us, but for us to not get to .500 we would need the injuries we have already sustained to not come back as the team as constructed now could compete for .500.   The staff is very good (although I was shocked to read that our pitching coach dismissed the advantage of two lefties and said he was more focused on the arms that the side of the arm.  While that makes sense form a logical standpoint, from a game standpoint it dismisses the large advantage of matching up and making the moves of opposing managers much easier.  It is very poor thinking to not have two lefties in the pen and last year should have showed that.  I am hoping Rapada is going to be OK because last year he was golden against lefties, striking out 33 of the 102 AB’s against him and limiting them to a .186 average and a .518 OPS against!  He also had to face the tough lefties a lot of times.  We need a 2^nd lefty in the pen!!!

Some stats…Here is one I read…20% of the Yankees opening day roster will be made up of players that were not with the Yankees when spring training started!  We traded for Kelley (they must see something in him) and we added Francisco, Overbay, Boesch and Vernon Wells in the last 3 weeks.  One more stat…the Yankees lineup on Opening day is expected to have only TWO players who were in the opening lineup last year…Brett Gardner (who missed a lot of the year) and Robbie Cano!

No matter what, I am a die hard fan and am looking forward to cheering for the Genius Maker…BRING ON THE GAMES!

Finally a post! 12-15-12

Longest drought of not writing for me in years.   The playoffs were so disappointing in that we played very poorly against a team (Detroit) that didn’t play that well against us.  When Detroit played a "real” team they got crushed.  Our pitchers did well mostly because Detroit didn’t swing the bats well and Detroit’s pitching while not terrible, looked like All Stars with us swinging the bat as poorly as I have ever seen.  I just didn’t feel like writing…

That being said I had a bunch of ideas that I just never got down on this site.  Maybe I need to use twitter to get my thoughts out?  Let me know if you have an interest in that?

Anyway, so here goes…

Why do I feel that I am the only person who does not (didn't) want to re-sign Ichiro?  I know he did really well down the stretch for us, but I have said for many years that signing players in the middle range (roughly 6-13 mil is usually a bad idea for teh yanks unless you know what you are getting.  I am in favor of the Superstar and then filling in with role players and rookies/young players.  Some people have talked about trading Cano; I would not do that, I lock him up.  I know he was horrible in the post season this year, but do you really think that is an indication how he will do in the future playoffs?

Back to Ichiro...His overall numbers were by far the best we could have hoped for with us, but at 39 I think he is shot and I would rather play Dickerson out there every day rather than Ichiro. My thought was if they could get him for a year at 4-5 mil then maybe worth it, but 13 mil for 2 years???  No thanks.  I do not believe that is money well spent...what do you really think is a realistic expectation of his OPS this year and next?  While with us he was decent/good, but I don’t think the 230 AB’s with us is an indicative of his playing ability as the prior 1800 AB’s where is OPS was about .670, especially when you consider he will be 39 next year and his game was mostly predicated on speed. Ichiro walked only 5 times in all those AB’s with us…I don’t like that part of his game…in fact I hate it. the Yanks go well when they wear down pitchers and I don't want guys who take away from that ability as a team to do it. First pitch outs kill a team.
Ichiro had 2 straight years as the worst every day player in the majors.  My guess is if he can get to .750 that would be at the top end of the specturm and the bottom end is 150 points less.  There are people that do no nothing but make these projections, but if I had to guess, .710 is probably about right...with pretty solid defense (but not great).  That is no where near worth that money and could be filled probably better with Dickerson.

Youk is hard to figure. He dropped off pretty darn quick and that usually doesn’t happen; the real question is was he hurt last year?  I do not know this, but that is the only area (and an important one to know) where this signing makes sense.  His numbers were mediocre overall (.745 - now look at Ichiro), but he played better with the White Sox; if he continued to play well for them I would have said that he just had a bad start, but his final 100 AB’s were not good either (under .700 OPS) and that is the one reason I would not sign him for $12 mil, even if it is only one year.  Youk is a pretty good defender and a hard nose guy and I do like the guys who work the count (one of the reasons Ichiro drives me nuts), but $12 mil is a lot of coin and if you take the two of them (Ichiro) that is 18.5 mil you could have signed a heck of a player, or wait until after the All Star break and pull two significant salary dumps into your roster of $20 mil type of players.  That would be a great shot in the arm.  This would also give you time to develop some players (my main issue last year signing all these old guys who don't project to be better than the young guys.

I would made a bold move and move Jeter to 3rd base as his range is shot at SS anyway and throw Nunez out there every day. I hate his Nunez' glove and honestly have doubts he will ever be average, but he does have the tools, if not the smooth glove.  Jeter should be fine at 3rd base and I would put Dickerson in RF and sign a platoon partner for the OF for a low level signing or a minor leaguer who could be tried.

Kuroda was a good signing for us and so was Pettitte.  $15 mil for Kuroda was probably at market value or below and getting him for one year was good for our $185 mil imposed cap.  I don;t necessarily have a big issue with this cap, but I think the team is not being managed consistently, if you are going to charge such exorbitant prices for seats you need to field a really good team.  the Yanks have been successful because they have spent money on the field which has led to significant money through gate receipts, memorabilia and concessions...if the product suffers so does the revenue brought in.  George understood that; not sure the sons do unfortunately.

Other points:

Excited to see Rivera come back; I hope he can be good...I don;t expect great.  Not resigning Swisher and Soriano but tendering them were very good moves so that we get draft picks for them leaving (and free up their salary).  Just for the record, Swisher is much more valuable than Ichiro as a RF, regardless if I wanted him gone (and I liked his energy)

Pineda should be ready for the latter part of this year; I still have very high hopes for him and even Campos, the other guy who got injured but was part of the Montero deal.  Hard to predict injuries and if you remember I was in favor of the move to trade Montero for them.  At this point what we got has been useless, but Montero proved he really is not a major league catcher and is probably just a DH (as I predicted).  Oddly, he had an OBP below .300 and a slug below .400 so he hit poorly also.  I would expect him to hit well, but if we get the pitchers like they were, we will be ahead in that deal.


I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season!

Post game 3

Girardi’s lineup was fine, but I would have played ARod over Chavez.  Mostly because Chavez was 0-11 and ARod had hit 2 dingers off of Verlander this year.  I was very much in favor of playing Gardner because he gives you better defense if he didn’t hit.  I would not have led him off, I would have batted him 9^th.  As it turned out Chavez made a nice pick for a DP with Cabrera up and he also misplayed a ball into an error that scored a run, so he didn’t do the job.  Gardner, didn’t hit (but should have walked instead of swinging at 2-3 balls-it was obvious he didn’t have his eye down yet).  Gardner did save a hit though as none of the fielders would have made the catch on the ball he came in for.

Hughes did OK, but made a terrible pitch to Young and hung a slider after the ump blew a call right down the middle on a pitch he was trying to get inside.  If the ump called that a strike the homer might never have happened.  The ump also gave verlander far too many outside pitches (even though that stupid box is too far to the left – meaning you need to move the box to the right so all those outside pitches to the lefty would be juts a little outside).  Actually, that box just simply isn’t that accurate and someone needs to fix it because it is annoying.  Anyway, I felt we were getting the short side of almost all the calls behind home plate.

I have no idea why Joe didn’t walk Cabrera with first base open, but Cabrera made us pay knocking in the 2^nd run.

The rest of the game we were sleep walking at the plate again, until the 9^th.  Verlander made a lot of bad pitches to Nunez and finally he got on fair and hit a HR.  Not sure why they didn’t throw him more fastballs?  Then after Gardner got out (he had one very hittable pitch but hit it foul), they brought in Phil Coke.  Coke has an OPS of .685 against lefties and 1.050 against righties and Ichiro is up.  I would have pinch hit ARod for Ichiro for a few reasons, although Ichiro has been our best average hitter and it is a risk, but here was my reasoning.  1) Ichiro is a little better against righties, 2) Coke is very tough on lefties and righties crush him, 3) if they make a move to their closer then if Tex gets on, Cano and Ibanez face a righty, 4) better chance for a HR, and 5) ARod has been hitting lefties even in the postseason.    Therefore, it is a move to help the lefties as well even if ARod gets out.  Joe stuck with Ichiro, which I do understand, and then you do have Tex facing Coke (which is another reason to leave in Ichiro), but I would have made the move.  Ichiro got out, but Tex and Cano both singled.  Now the other tough decision, do you leave the lefty Ibanez who really can’t hit lefties, but did get the one hit and has had some huge AB’s?  I answered I would pinch hit, and the people around me were split.  ARod does hit lefties well and I would have liked them to make a move; if they did, I would have brought in Swisher to face their closer if they made a move.  Ibanez really does not hit lefties and Coke is tough on them and that was my thinking.  I will admit though that Joe doesn’t have no doubt decisions here and he decided to go with the hot hand and eschew the statistical splits…one can’t scream about that; but I would have made a move with Ibanez being so awful against lefties for the year.  Fortunately Ibanez got some very hittable pitches and in good counts, but unfortunately he couldn’t square them up.  I called the slider and said if he can put it anywhere close to the outside corner this game will be over…unfortunately Coke delivered on the pitch and Ibanez swung to end the threat and make the season hang by a thread.

Lost in this offensive drought was a very nice job by Logan who looked very sharp.  Time for us to do what the Red Sox did to us…at least Cano got a hit!

Game 3 tonight against Detroit

First, I was away on business and couldn’t post and in fact missed the entire 2^nd game (I know crazy – did watch on video after the fact)

I know I predicted a win against Baltimore and that we would lose to Detroit; so why am I so down?  Why are all of us feeling like this series is over?  The obvious hits us in the face; Hughes is going against Verlander in the next game; this is a mismatch on paper.  The other obvious part is this offense has gone into a terrible slump at a bad time and to make it worse; it is not because we have faced some great pitching.  The Yankees have had a lot of VERY hittable pitches that they have either taken for strikes or missed; it has been bad hitting not good pitching. 

Why have any optimism?  Think about it, we hit about as poor as possible; it simply can’t be worse as almost everyone outside of Ichiro and Ibanez (and Tex) are underperforming at epic levels.  With that in mind, we went into extra inning in game 1 and were really only down 1-0 in game 2.  If a couple calls and or breaks go our way we could have won both games.  Some hard hit balls find a hole and we are in business.  If Swisher plays 2 or 3 balls better we may win too.

Detroit has not played that well.  Maybe that is worse for us, but I think it is more of a silver lining.  I have some odd feeling we will hit Verlander…there is no logic behind this though as our offense is horrible and Verlander has been lights out.  In his last 6 games, he has pitched 44 innings and allowed only 31 hits and 3 earned runs.

Hard to understand how Robinson Cano can break a post season record for hitless AB’s…crazy.  Granderson, Swisher and ARod have been bad and Chavez has been 0-11 in trying to replace ARod.  Grandy and Swish have not been replaced and I think Gardner has to be looked at as a spark.  Verlander is a fastball pitcher and normally both are good fastball hitters so waiting until game 4 may be the answer though? 

What about our starters?  Does it make sense to skip Hughes altogether so that we finish with CC, Pettitte, Kuroda, CC and Pettitte all on 3 days rest?  It clearly is an option, but it is hard to know what Kuroda and Pettitte could do…Kuroda already pitched well on short rest, but could he do it again?   Hughes scares me, even if he pitched well against Baltimore, I think Baltimore didn’t swing the bats well.  I would skip him and have a sense of urgency.

Switching gears to something Girardi said.  First, his arrogance in press conference still pisses me off, but I have to say that he can’t be blamed for what has happened to the offense.  He has pushed the buttons as best as possible.  Of course, he should be blamed for having Robby Thompson on 3^rd and other situations, but not this Detroit series (he better be correct about Hughes).  Anyway, he was talking about using instant replay for close calls on the bases.  I am not a fan of IR in football and I think the balance of flow in the game has been jeopardized and football is a timed game very different than baseball.  Girardi said something that I have said in the past but had forgotten.  He said in the time it took him to argue a call they could have replayed the play.  I think in baseball where time is not an issue and flow really isn’t either IR makes more sense.  Further, it is more easily reviewed compared to football where you can’t review every single player who is holding or whatever.  The idea that coaches can go out and argue a call is kind of silly when you think about it.  They could make calls just like balls and strikes where you can’t argue them, but you can request a review (x times a game).  I think it would actually speed up the game as the arguing takes longer than a review and getting rid of the arguing would probably be good as kids must watch that and scratch their heads. 

Swisher being booed.  I don’t understand why people boo other than for lack of effort or not running all out.  The Yankees all have had situations where they were not running hard all the way and while it doesn’t matter usually, there were a few times where it might have mattered (Tex and Cano come to mind).  What does booing accomplish; don’t you want your player to do better? 

Game 4 Baltimore

Just a quick update on last night’s (or was it this morning’s game?)

The Yankee offense should be embarrassed.  When our best hitter goes 0-6 we are in trouble, however, Baltimore was equally bad.  The pitching was not nearly as good as the hitting was poor and the hitting is what led to such a low scoring game.

The key point in the game was in the 8^th inning.  Ichiro and tex lead off with a single so we have 1^st and 2^nd with nobody out.  Cano is up in this perfect bunting situation.  However, I would have eschewed the bunt and let Cano hit away.  As it turned out it didn’t matter as he grounded out and moved the runners over.  Now the real managing comes into play.  ARod has hit lefties in the postseason but has been atrocious against righties. When O’Day entered the game, Girardi should have pinch hit Chavez as he doesn’t waste a move.  I would bet that Buck would have walked Chavez and then we would have had bases loaded with Swisher up and the infield at least half way, if not in.  At this point you could be real aggressive and pinch hit Ibanez for Swisher, this made the most sense to me because you would force Buck to stay with O’Day or go to someone he doesn’t want to.  Regardless, Girardi decided to let ARod bat (not sure why) and I was hoping ARod would come through.  I looked at the people and I said, I would do something very surprising here and I would squeeze with ARod and Ichiro on 3^rd.  ARod may be sucking against righties but he has good bat control and I bet he could get a bunt down…it wouldn’t even have to be good, just get it down and we win the series.  I know the chances were 1%, but I think it would have been an incredible call.   When ARod swung and missed the first pitch right done the middle, I knew we/he was in trouble.  In fact, I would have been OK pinch hitting AFTER the first pitch as well and I said that to the people I was watching with.  If he couldn’t get a piece of that one; he was in trouble.  Of course he got out and Swish weakly flew out…that was the game in my opinion.

 

It did go on and Phelps was hitting spots really well, but made a terrible pitch and they took advantage of it; it is a shame as he was really good.  It was similar to the terrible pitch Jeter swung at (that had to be a one of the worst pitches I have ever see a batter swing at – the other one was the 3-2 pitch Granderson swung at) and then the pitcher followed up with a grooved pitch to Jeter.  Sometimes you have to scratch your head.

Lineup today…I doubt ARod plays against the righty, but isn’t Granderson worse?…even if he could hit a HR?  I think I would play Gardner to try and spark the team.  The offense is stagnant.

Swisher  2-15  with 2 walks

ARod 2-16 with 2 walks

Cano – 2-18 (2 doubles) with 1 walk

Granderson 1-16 with 1 walk

This is PUTRID.  I play Gardner and give Granderson a blow and he becomes the Ibanez that you use when you need a HR.  So if we do find a way to win, we come back and play Saturday with no rest and we have used CC and two extra inning games the 2 before that.  MLB should be as embarrassed as the Yankee hitters with how they screwed up the schedule.  They don’t make the WC play on no rest but they would make the Yanks or O’s do it here??? 

Game 3 against Baltimore

So Much for being undefeated after 7 innings!    WOW!!!  A guy hits a pinch hit solo homer to tie the game and then gets up again and homers to win it!  Amazing.  Regardless of how mediocre he was during the season, Ibanez was amazingly clutch (again) and almost single handedly won the game (have to give credit to the pitchers too)

Finally, outside of batting ARod 3^rd (he shouldn’t have), you have to give Girardi credit for making the move benching ARod and putting Ibanez in.  Also, a very big play was the positioning of Nix on the line drive off Soriano that would have given Baltimore the lead…and instead turned into a DP to end the inning. 

Robertson was very sharp and I agreed with all the pitching decisions.  Robertson should have gotten out of the way of the popup but Tex should not have looked at the others and should have just called them off from the beginning.

Ichiro was 0-5 and Granderson has been awful and is far more lost than anyone.  The issue is that Granderson could homer at any time.  However, Saunders is pitching for Baltimore and lefties are usually shut down by him and righties hit him well.  Gardner would be an interesting play, but I doubt Joe makes that move.  ARod should play tomorrow, he should not be benched.

I would try something odd with the lineup tomorrow.  I am not sure if Jeter can play, but assuming he could play, I would drop Ichiro to 9^th and I might consider batting ARod 2^nd (just a hunch).  If that is too much to ask I would bat Swisher 2^nd and Tex 3^rd, then Cano and ARod.  ARod hits more like a #2 guy anyway and normally has good bat control.   One other odd choice could be to play Nunez or Nix in the OF against the tough lefty and bench Grandy.  I doubt that would happen.  I gave you some scenarios but if I were making the lineup I would bat Swisher 2^nd and ARod 5^th.   I would DH Nunez and Nix plays if Jeter can’t.  WE haven’t been hitting so throwing righties at Saunders may be the ticket.  BTW, Gardner is 6-7 against lefties this year…yeah that was surprising.

 Great job by Ibanez!!!

Game 2 at Baltimore

Very sloppy game for a 3-2 game.  Each team made 2 errors but really had 3 or 4.   Tex let one through his legs, Jeter made one official error and another that should have been real costly but JJ Hardy assumed Jeter would make a play that almost any SS would make and stopped at 3^rd assuming there would be a play at 3^rd.  I know Jeter has little range, but that was a play that has to be made by a major league ball player and to make it worse he failed to keep the ball in the infield; but we caught a break.  Cano had the same issue, although it was a really hard play, but I would have liked to see him dive to keep the ball in the infield, just knock it down; it cost us a run (even though a much tougher play).  That being said, the play that got me very mad at a time I was supposed to be happy was watching our 3^rd base coach make yet another terrible decision getting Ichiro thrown out by 15 feet.  Somehow the catcher didn’t move his feet and Ichiro got around the first tag and then did a little of the swim move and avoided the 2^nd tag to get in for one of our 2 runs!  Robby Thompson should have been fired 2 years ago, but if he doesn’t get fired this year then we are not holding our coaches accountable for bad play; the guy is simply the worst 3^rd base coach I have ever seen.  Jeter made another error on a bad throw that he stayed back on the ball and honestly looked very shaky on a few other plays.  I don’t know why he is sitting back and waiting for the ball to play him, but he has not looked good defensively.

Pettitte had excellent movement and location on his pitches most of the night.  I felt he got squeezed a little more than Chen, but he pitched well and that is encouraging.  He made two big mistakes; one where he walked JJ Hardy on 4 pitches with 1^st and 2^nd and 2 outs (after a broken bat hit and another off the end hit) and the 2^nd right after that when he hung his slider out over the plate to Chris Davis who lined a single scoring 2.  Chris Davis is perhaps the only guy who has hit the ball sharply for Baltimore.  We really should have taken 2 the way they hit, but our own offense didn’t do well and when we did we hit it at people.  ARod’s numbers look bad, but in the first inning he hit a line drive shot that Jeter took off on and got doubled up.  That is a tough play for Jeter to read, but you are taught to freeze on line drives and Jeter didn’t while Ichiro did otherwise we would have had a triple play.  That was a tough break for us.  ARod did line another ball through the left side which was good to see, but didn’t do anything the rest of the game.  I think against righties, ARod needs to drop to the 5 spot.  I also don’t love Ichiro batting 2^nd against a lefty as he didn’t hit the ball out of the infield.

The 7^th inning was a big chance for us after we got two cheap hits in a row (Nunez bloop and Jeter’s hit) using Nunez’ speed.  After a FC to Ichiro, O’Day was brought in to face ARod (a good move by Buck).  It was a good battle, but on a 3-2 pitch and Ichiro running, O’Day made a great sweeping curve that was right on the black and ARod missed it.  We needed ARod to foul that off, but you do have to tip your hat when the other team pitches well and that was a perfect pitch.  In fact, I thought Chen made a lot of quality pitches on the black.  After ARod got Buck had the lefty Matusz walk Cano to face the switch hitting Swisher.  Matusz gets hit by righties to the tune of a .932 OPS against righties, but Swisher has bad numbers off of him.  In Game 1, Swisher took two pitches down the middle (one a breaking ball) so I expected him to be a little more aggressive this time.  The first pitch was in the dirt so that was easy to lay off (in fact both runners moved up) and the next pitch was huge as Matusz once again caught the middle of the plate but Swisher watched it; a big chance lost.  After another ball Swisher watched another strike before making the count full.  He then missed fastball off the end of the bat and flew out fairly weakly.  This was our last chance big chance as it turned out.  Tex did lead of the 8^th with a single and you could have pinch run for him with Gardner, but in a one run game I understand NOT doing that.  You have to tie it before you win it so perhaps it should have been done.  If it were the 9^th I think you have to but I can see not doing it in the 8^th so I am not being critical, but perhaps we needed to be more aggressive there?

In the 9^th, while we needed to do whatever we could to come back, I said to my brother Jeter will ground out on the 1^st pitch and that is what he did.  My feeling was that Johnson would have his better sinker and I was afraid Jeter would try to swing at it after not seeing such a good sinker all game.  I wish he would have taken it.  Johnson looked overpowering unfortunately.

The offense (and defense) needs to be better as there is little excuse for scoring only 2 runs in that small ball park…and it would have been only one if Ichiro didn’t pull a Houdini at home.

I still believe we will win this series and struggle next series, but nothing would surprise me.  They have Gonzalez going (righty) and he has a 2.74 ERA on the road this year.  He is a little tougher on righties but righties have him more HR’s off of him so his overall is pretty equal (he is slightly better against righties (.685-.701).

Jeter

Ichiro

Tex

Cano ( I like splitting up my lefties, but Cano could bat 3^rd)

ARod

Swisher

Granderson

Martin

Ibanez (Gardner)

I think he will start Ibanez, but I like Ibanez being the pinch hitter for Martin and I love Gardner’s defense, but I understand this as Gardner has not seen a lot of time. 

With Kuroda on the mound this is the game we should win.  Hughes is up next and he scares me.

Game 1 at Baltimore

Before I get to the game, I had written the first two paragraphs below and wanted to send along.

My prediction is the Yanks will win the series against Baltimore.  I do think we probably won't advance beyond this round as I expect Detroit to win and unless our hitters get really hot, I don't think we will beat Detroit...but in a short series anything can happen.People are making a big deal of this playoff format.  The 2-3 format is still an advantage for the team with 3 home games!  If you lost both games on the road then you have to win all 3 at home; it is simple.  Either way that will be the formula and if you win on the road then you can afford to lose one at home?  I think people are making a much bigger deal than it is, although my feeling is that the WC teams should be penalized more and I would go 2-2-1 and if the extra day is something baseball doesn’t want to waste then have the WC team fly immediately to the division winners home and play the day after the wild card game and then do a 2-2-1.  Further, nothing says you need more than one day of travel for the 2-2-1 format?  Just go ahead and give one day in between the 2^nd and 3^rd game and then if a 5^th game is needed there is no travel day.

The Yankee 25 man roster was the same one I would have used.  To me, the only question was Nova or Lowe and I can see taking Lowe.  Nix had to be on the roster just so we had someone who could play defense at 2^nd base and SS if we happen to get an injury and Nunez will be in the DH spot with Jones off the roster.

ROTATION
CC Sabathia
Andy Pettitte
Hiroki Kuroda
Phil Hughes
BULLPEN
Rafael Soriano
Dave Robertson
Boone Logan
Joba Chamberlain
Clay Rapada
David Phelps
Derek Lowe
CATCHERS
Russell Martin
Chris Stewart
INFIELDERS
Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eric Chavez
Eduardo Nunez
Jayson Nix
OUTFIELDERS
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Ichiro Suzuki
Raul Ibanez
Brett Gardner

This game was ours from the first inning.  We were hitting the ball hard and CC was hitting spots while they were throwing far more hittable pitches.  The game was only close because of some HORRIBLE base running and some bad luck.

In the first inning after a single and a double the Yanks had an early one nothing lead and Ichiro on 2^nd and nobody out.  Ichiro was guilty of stealing 3^rd at some non meaningful times during the stretch run and actually was thrown out once but didn’t get called out.  However, you do not try and steal 3^rd with nobody out with your best hitters coming up IN THE FIRST INNING.  The first inning is the one where pitchers are trying to find their rhythm, trying to find their feel of their pitches and their location.  You don’t do them extra favors, especially when you are already in scoring position with your speed.  Of course, if they give you the base, you can take it, but this was not the case and this terrible decision ran us out of an inning and it had little upside.  It seemed like it was a planned play because ARod faked a bunt?  I am not sure whether it was planned/called or not, but when Girardi was asked about this and when Tex got thrown out trying to stretch an almost homer into a double after not running hard out of the box, Girardi gave one of his idiotic, useless comments that drive me crazy.  I understand you don’t want to call out Tex for not hustling out of the box and then making it worse by trying to get to 2^nd, but instead of discussing the bad timing of the Ichiro play, Girardi just chalked it up to “good aggressive play that we encourage.”  Really, Joe, well if you encouraged and perhaps called for the Ichiro play, then you really are a dunce.

Also, how is it possible Girardi didn't pinch run for Ibanez in the 9th inning?  I was going nuts.  Then, after he does a hit and run with Ibanez, and he is on 3rd base he brings in Nunez?  Are you kidding me?  Girardi was asleep.  What would have happened if Jeter missed the pitch?  Luckily Buck was asleep because he had the 2nd baseman cover instead of the SS with Jeter up (a bad move).

These two plays were the reason why the game was close.  The Tex play also had some bad luck involved as that ball was hit hard enough to go out in most parks and hit right at the top of the wall. 

The Orioles found the holes with their ground balls and we were hitting some line drives at the first baseman and we found ourselves 2-2 after Ichiro hit a grounder right at the 2^nd baseman and they threw out Martin at the plate (who got on after a very good AB where he worked a walk.)

Buck made some odd decisions that didn’t hurt him (the 2nd baseman covering did hurt them) and ironically the one decision that made sense to me (bringing in their closer Johnson) backfired in a huge way.  I was surprised Buck allowed Matusz, who is similar to Rapada to face Swisher and Tex in a tie game in the 8^th inning.  Swisher took 2 pitches right down the middle (I don’t know what he was thinking) before watching strike 3 (questionable call) and Tex walked.  Grandy struck out taking two good pitches himself before swinging at ball 4 (very bad AB by Granderson).

Martin’s homer in the 9^th was great and we got lucky Johnson fell behind and really gave martin another hittable pitch (we had a lot last night) and he came through!  Getting all those extra runs was big because in this park you get a guy or two on and one gapper can be a HR as the power alleys are as short as anywhere.  Martin also made the excellent play in the 5th inning on the dribbler down the first base line.  Martin got rid of the ball quickly and accurately but he bounced the throw and Tex not only made a good play to not let it by him, but he caught it and got a huge out.  This one play could have turned the game around as it could have been 2nd and 3rd with nobody out.

CC did a good job with his location, but his stuff was not very good.  CC was throwing about 91 -92 MPH with his fastball and his change didn’t have great movement along with an average slider that wasn’t too sharp.  He did have good movement on his fastball, sometimes sinking it and along with the good location of his fastball he got by as Baltimore did not swing the bats well.  The location of his change was not too good, but it was effective.

CC was a wily veteran out there and based on how many hard throwers are out there, CC is almost a craft lefty as he only hit 93 a few times.

Every Yankee got on at least once.

Jeter’s error almost cost us big time, but we got out of it.  We were a little too sloppy with 3 “errors” as they were all mental errors (Jeter should have charged his ball and compounded it with a physical error)

Overall, the announcers did a pretty good job…they called pitches and got into the strategy; it is rare that I can say that. 

Getting at least one in Baltimore puts us in the drivers seat in this format!  Great win and an exciting one where their closer gets beat and maybe their late inning confidence is a little shaken. 

Last game of the year!

Not only did we win the division but we ended up with the best record in the AL!!!  That is a nice accomplishment.  Of course, it means very little unless we leverage it into at the minimum a 1^st round victory.

I want to go back to last night’s game (Tuesday).  It is very easy to get on Girardi for all the inconsistent and sometimes head scratching decisions, but I thought he made the right move in starting Phelps over Nova and I liked the lineup with Nunez in there.  I would have batted Tex after the hot Cano, but I agree with batting Ichiro down against the lefty.  Further, I thought Girardi timed his move to take out Phelps at the right time and I thought he used all his pitchers well with one exception and that is I would have let Robertson go another batter or 2 in the 9^th knowing that the game was probably in extra innings.  This in turn made him stick with Soriano for more pitches than I was comfortable with.  But, I would let him throw a lot in the postseason and in many ways it was a postseason game.  I also said to my son in the 9^th that this was the perfect spot for Ibanez to come in as we needed a HR.  Bailey obliged by grooving a pitch and Ibanez did the rest with a clutch line drive 2 run HR.  That was an enormous hit.  I wanted us to end the game in that 9^th but it was not to be.  I also thought ARod ended when he crushed the ball to LC but the heavy air and rain kept the ball in the park and Ellsbury made a terrific catch covering a ton of ground.

Going back to 1^st inning, Jeter was very heads up on a fly ball to RF where he tagged up and went to 2^nd, but unfortunately got left there after Tex started his horrific game by hitting into his 1^st of two double play grounders with 1^st and 3^rd and 1 out.  Later on with bases loaded and one out he popped up to shallow center on a broken bat where he actually got jammed on a pitch over the plate (Cone and Singleton called that wrong)

Say what you want, but Girardi had a good game Tuesday.

Wednesday had Granderson hit a towering fly ball that had underspin and carried for a 3 run HR to give us an early lead and Cano and the yanks never looked back.  Cano had a monster game adding to a great finish that saw him end the year with a .929 OPS! 

Kuroda also did a nice job against a fairly weak lineup.

OK, we now wait until Texas and the O’s play and then we travel to one of their places for 2 games and then come home for 3.  A lot of people are making a big deal out of this but I would always want the extra home game and I am fine going on the road twice too come home for 3.  It isn’t as much an advantage as 2-2-1, but they have to play another game and I am fine with it.  I would rather play Baltimore as the travel is easier and I feel we can beat them.  I was worried about Detroit and they still scare me and I think they are the favorite to win the AL pennant so I will be rooting against them.  We finished up in a good spot!

I will post on our rosters next, but the key questions are who is our 4^th starter, Phelps or Hughes and who do we keep on the PS roster out of Lowe, Garcia, Nova or Eppley?  It may depend on the team we play and I want to look at this.  I actually think the answer is Eppley or Lowe.    I would absolutely keep Gardner as our best lineup may be Gardner in LF and Ichiro in RF with Swish DHing and ARod playing 3^rd (Maybe Chavez with a very tough righty?)  I love the OF of Gardner, Granderson and Ichiro defensively.  Again, who we play matters and I will look up what I would go with.

Enjoy the moment folks!  I am not that confident in our team, but I feel much better after Texas lost all those games and even Baltimore lost their last two…at least in the first round.  The playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot so we have a shot!

10-1-12

Please read the post I made Monday below (9-30) about the playoff tie breakers.

The good part Monday was that the Yankees won and Baltimore lost.  Further, with Texas losing, the Yanks are in position to win the best record.  However, Oakland winning eliminated Tampa from the playoffs and they no longer have anything to play for.  We now control our own destiny and that is always good!

Boston played a AAA lineup, CC threw strikes and the results were very good…as should be expected.  His breaking ball had good downward movement and he threw a lot of changes in big spots.  Fastball was still not good, but he threw strikes with it. 

It was good to see the offense erupt with 9 runs and obviously that is enough to win most games.  However, I would have liked to see some more scoring in other innings (only 1 additional run).  Cano is locked in right now and that is exciting as our best hitter (player) needs to be very good for us to win.  Seeing Tex in the lineup makes a big difference and I was thrilled to see Gardner in the lineup and swinging the bat.  I would imagine they will be careful with him, but he will have a lot of time in the off season to take care of anything he needs to.   I love the defense he brings us and if he can get into a little groove should start IMO over Ibanez or Ichiro.  Right now Ichiro plays and Swisher DH’s if Gardner plays.  Ibanez is a PH as needed.  I get the feeling Gardner won’t show enough the next 2 games though and Ibanez will be the DH and Gardner used as a PH and defensive replacement.  Granderson is probably safe because of his HR, but it would be nice if he could get going a little…he is a wild card that could be big.

The other interesting side of this is Swisher over ARod at DH against a righty who is tough on righties.  Chavez has been swinging a good bat and it is not absurd to start Chavez and even Swish while sitting ARod.  We have some flexibility and that is a good thing.  The matchups (splits) and who is swinging well are very important.

Depending on who we are playing I will give you what I would do.  On that note, a questions was posed as to whether I start Nova again and my answer is no, I go with Phelps.  I think Nova has great stuff, but he can’t pitch as a starter right now as he is getting hammered.  I would not have an issue with him being moved to the pen, but he might not make the PS roster

This is a fun time of year…enjoy these playoff like games