Let's Step Back and See Where We Are

After I get into observations of the west coast games, I will discuss "where we are and where we are going." 

I have recorded or watched almost every Yankee game.  I haven't missed 2 games in a row, but I did miss all 3 Oakland games (business travel); which might have been for the best.  It appears poor starting pitching and lackluster hitting brought us down.  But, the team rebounded nicely with 2 out of 3 against LA and a sweep of a weak Seattle team.

In LA, I want to focus on the 9th inning in the 2nd game.  Didi leads off and has a 3-1 count on him.  This is a good pitch to drive, but he decides to bunt down the 3rd base line.  Not sure I would do that on a 3-1 count, but I am 100% good with laying one down when they give you that much room and still am OK with doing it on a 3-1 count.  The problem was that it was ball 4 and he should have let it go (pulled the bat back).  Didi's (lack of) understanding of the strike zone has been his hitting issue all year and why he isn't walking more.  But getting back to the bunt, I think more players need to do that.  However, bunting with 2 strikes, especially on a 3-2 count was idiotic!  I heard that Boone said he didn't have a problem with it and while I know he is protecting his player (who made a bone head move), I don;t want Boone to fall into the Girardi disingenuous comments line of answering.  For Boone, it is OK to say that you like the idea of bunting there with 0 or one strike, but with a 3-2 count the odds are better to swing away (you don't need to use my choice of words (idiotic).

That out was a huge issue as the Yankees loaded up the bases with only that one out.  An important note here was that Gio grounded to 3rd and they tried to get the force out at 2nd base but Gardner barely beat the throw and took out the SS on the play.  While the SS was lying on the ground, Torres started to go home but the ump called time out.  Some people had said the ump should not have called time out on his own, but that was not accurate because the pitcher for LA called time out and at that moment Torres hadn't broken off of 3rd base and the ump called time out just after Torres broke.  I think the ump did the right thing with the player being down, but the issue was that Torres was on the bag and should have been off the bag as the player went down and then took off home immediately; either Torres, the 3rd base coach or both were sleeping over there.  If Torres would have started home the ump should not have granted time and we would have tied up the game.  Regardless, we have bases loaded and one out and should tie the game at least...Unfortunately, Tauchman had a bad AB and struck out on 3 straight pitches and then Sanchez barely does better with a 4 pitch strikeout.  Frustrating game.

After the pitching dual, we had German against Kershaw, both guys let up HR's in the first AB, German's was on the first pitch of the game.  German, went the next 18 outs without allowing a run and we pulled away 5-1.  My comment in this game surrounds Didi getting hit by a pitch.  I am not saying it was intentional, but I do want us to protect our players in a game that isn't a critical game and without putting the game in risk.  Didi was hit in the 1st inning with a fastball and it was on his throwing arm (an issue for him).  After a 1-0 lead, German should have thrown inside to the first batter - maybe hit him but at least one of those that backs him off the plate and if nothing else sends the message that this is your plate and/or you don't hit our players without us protecting them.  Instead he threw a fastball over the plate that was hit for  HR.   I bring this up because I was annoyed Didi got hit and I stated I wanted a very inside fastball as the first pitch of the game.  Plunking him would have been much more desirable.

Overall, 5-4 on the west coast was salvaged winning the last 4.

So let's take a look at where we are now:

We are tied with LA for the best record in baseball, only 1/2 a game ahead of Houston.  Home field matters because the Yankees have been very good at home (49-20); Houston has been great at home (51-16).

Overall, while we have had some performances that were unexpected (Gio, Tauchman, Maybin, Ford and even LeMahieu), our injuries have been absurd, our pitching has been below expectations and we are in a great spot.  The key is that we should be better!

The injured guys are all looking good to contribute this year.  It is more likely than not that we will be adding Voit (tomorrow), Stanton, EE, Hicks, Severino, Betances and even Montgomery has a shot.  I probably missed someone, but think about this for a moment; that is an enormous amount of talent.

It is hard to know whether Severino would be used out of the pen or not, and you don't for sure how quickly everyone will get up to speed, but it is very encouraging.

Think about our lineup against a lefty - order could be adjusted:

Rough Order:
2nd: DJ
RF: Judge
SS: Torres
LF: Stanton
DH: Voit (or EE)
C; Sanchez
1B: EE (or Voit)
3B: Gio
CF: Hicks

That is a sick lineup!

Starters:
German
Big Maple
Severino
Tanaka
5th??? probably not used.  BTW, They were talking about Happ's issues and I disagree with them, I think while he has had fastball command issues, I think everything is off because he simply can't spot his changeup fading away on the lower outside corner.  When he is effective, he is nailing that corner with his changeup and everything else plays off that pitch.   While on pitchers, Green needs to stay on top of the zone with his fastball.  He gets hit when he gets it down.

The bullpen should be lights out with Betances back and CC could be used against a lefty or as a middle relief guy as I don't see him in the rotation for the playoffs.  I also like that Boone has started to use Ottavino more as a righty specialist instead of a full inning guy.  I think that is his best use even if he can give you more than a few batters.  With Betances, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman, we can easily finish the final 4 innings of a game and in a key game if we started Green, I think we could go with all good pitchers the entire way.  I could see Green going 2 and then matching up CC/Cessa/Ottavino to get another 2 and then you could easily get 5 innings out of Betances, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman, by riding the hot hand for 4 or 5 outs.  If it were an elimination game, each of those guys could throw 2 innings if needed

Bottom line - get your playoff plans in order!

Split with Cleveland

The first game was just a disaster.  Cleveland really had some very good AB's and then it just got out of hand.  Green didn't have good control, but he made some pitches a team struggling would have offered at and Cleveland was very disciplined and then crushed the others.  The game might have been different if Torres didn't rip a line drive right at 3rd base with the bases loaded.

The 2nd and 3rd games were thoroughly enjoyable to watch not only because we won, but the pitches were so critical almost every step of the way.  The game really was hanging in the balance on so many pitches and that is what makes it exciting to me.

In the 2nd game, Tanaka threw very well and allowed only the 2 solo HR's.  Leading into the 8th 3-2, every runner mattered and Britton came on and induced a ground ball that Didi threw to 1B and Ford simply didn't catch it.  That is a very rare occurrence but no all of a sudden the leadoff batter is on in a one run game (and it wasn't form our usual leadoff walk which drives me crazy.  After a sac bunt, Britton was able to get the last two outs.  In the 9th, guess what happened?  Chapman made me crazy by walking the first guy on 5 pitches.  After that, Chapman was very sharp getting a pop up and 2 k's for the save.

In the 3rd game, we had some fireworks in the 6th inning.  The umpire had a terrible call on Maybin striking him out.  Maybin had a reasonable reaction and calmly told the ump he didn't agree with the call.  As he was going back to the bench he was still annoyed and the Yankees bench started in.  Eventually, CC, Grander and Boone got tossed.  Boone protected his players so I didn't have an issue with him, I am not sure what CC said, so lets assume that was warranted as well.  My issue is with Gardner and his childish banging the bat on the dugout roof.   Yes, the umpire should not have been looking into teh dugout and yes, Gardner was thrown out the other day when he didn't say anything and teh umpire lied that he saw him talking (which is total BS), BUT, he was banging on teh dugout roof and that should not be allowed in my  opinion.  If a player wants to hit something once when they are mad at themselves that is fine with me, but instead of yelling at the ump they create loud noises, should not be allowed...and it is childish.  Maybe we are getting a reputation, but I will say the calls have been bad at times.  Chapman got his 35th save and was very sharp, hitting 103 for the first time this season (at least from my memory) and having his good breaking ball!

The 4th game was really decided a lot by the home plate umpire.  It was a terrible game for him and is the reason I am all for the digital umpire to make the calls.  I assume they can adjust the strike zone for each player up and down and if so, I would rather have that then this inconsistent garbage we are getting.  Judge took a ball very low that was called a strike then swung through a FB before doing a good job taking a slider that was low AND away.  Strike 3 and he is walking back to the dugout.  In a game where we kept leaving 2 guys on base early on, the terrible calls made a huge impact on the game.  There had to be 8 other calls I was pissed at.  That is unacceptable and I would like to see the umps get suspended or "benched" for poor play.

One last note, as much we have noticed Sanchez has been better behind the plate.  He threw one into CF yesterday and I realized that he has now made 13 errors this season.  Keep in mind the errors are not what we usually have an issue with Sanchez on; usually it is his poor framing or poor blocking of balls or just getting mixed up.  While he has been better there, 14 errors for a guy who has missed a decent amount of games is a lot.  There are two other guys who have 10 errors so he has 40% more errors than the next closest guy.

Ok, really one last note...Ryan Ruocco did a very good job in place of Kay and he brings more to the table than Kay.  Ryan goes to a lot of stats, but he understands the context they need to be used in and also understood most of the nuances of the issues with most some of those stats.  Good job Ryan

Sorry To See Baltimore Go

16 straight wins against Baltimore...and we bludgeoned their pitching.  Torres (13) and Sanchez each hit 10 HR's against them this year; first time since a few guys named Gehrig and Ruth did it.  The team also hit 61 HR's against Baltimore this year; a MLB record. 

Last nights game was pretty close because we didn't hit as well as we could have, Happ continues to struggle more than he should and Boone had the wrong reliever ready in my opinion

Outside of a bullet line drive homer to dead center by Sanchez (who did have 3 hits) the Yankees offense was fairly quiet.  The other huge hit was a 2 out single by Ford to LF.  Ford is not long for the majors as he is more of a minor league player, but he hasn't been awful and has contributed some.  His OPS of .664 leaves a lot to be desired at 1B, but when you have 3 guys down you need some help.  No need to go crazy right now, but our best lineup until Voit comes back is DJ at 1B...it may still be our best when Voit comes back too as Voit can DH.

Happ has to get consistent with his changeup.  he simply has not been able to nail that low outside corner with it this year and it is a huge pitch for him.  If I were the pitching coach, that is what I would be focusing on as last night he spotted his fastball much better but he didn't have a secondary pitch and he needs the changeup as well as working in his curve.

I didn't have a problem with Cessa starting the 7th inning after mowing down Baltimore in the 6th.  After getting the first out he allowed a double and I would have had Kahnle ready with a switch hitter and lefties coming up (one righty).  After walking Mancini I would have taken out Cessa, but Boone had Ottavino up and ready and with a lefty up he stuck with Cessa (not terrible, but I think wrong reliever)...Cessa did get the next batter to fly out but Cessa was not as sharp and got away with some pitches.  Now with the righty Nunez up Ottavino had to come in, but no Boone stuck with Cessa and the hot Nunez doubled scoring 2.  Ottavino was then brought in to face the lefty and Ottavino has a .784 OPS against lefties this year (Kahnle is .589 because if his changeup).  Ottavino allowed a double and we were in a one run game now.  Ottavino is our best pitcher against righties with a .551 OPS against and he should be used more as a righty specialist and not a guy who holds down an inning.  This is one area that I would like to see some movement from Boone.  he is big on Kahnle for the 6th and Ottavino for the 7th, Britton for the 8th and Chapman for the 9th.  I think you need more flexibility based on the situation.  Britton is a little better against lefties and Chapman is outstanding against lefties and we should use that to our advantage.  BTW, when Chapman has his slider break down it is a great strike out pitch.  Britton has also started to use his "slurve" more as it has been very sharp.

A few other notes:

• I was hoping Judge was getting out of his funk on Tuesday as he hit a couple of rockets for outs, but last night he was back not centering pitches and then complained about a strike 3 on the corner (not like him) that was probably the correct call and then watched another strike 3 go by.  Think about this, the Yankees team OPS is .833 and Judge's OPS is now .842.  That is pretty bad for him.
• Sanchez had a good game and hopefully he is starting to heat up as he is an enormous game changer at the catcher position.  I will say that I don;t love his pitch selection at times, but he is a lot better than he was.
• Didi - I have not mentioned him as I was trying to give him some time to get back in the groove, but his .734 OPS is as disappointing as Judges OPS.  What is really concerning is that he is simply not walking at all and he hasn't been able to drive pitches to LF.  I like that he tried to bunt the other day with the shift on, but he needs to be more patient at the plate and drive the ball the other way.  He has hit some very weak balls on the outside corner.  For perspective, he hasn't walked in his 10 games this month and his OBP is a terrible .287.  He has walked 8 times in 200 AB's this year and last year he walked 48 times in 504 AB's.  That is 9.5% in 2018 compared to 4% this year.  NOT GOOD

Cleveland for 4 before we head to the left coast!

It Has Been Too Long

Since my last post!  Busy schedule, I went to the HOF to see the Genius Maker inducted and then had a vacation, but I watched most every game.  I will discuss the yesterday's double header and then go back to some of the notes I took:

Baltimore does not have a good pitching staff, but it is ridiculous what the team has done to Baltimore pitching and even more so (what is more than ridiculous?) what Torres has done to Baltimore!  He has hit 13 HR's against Baltimore this year which is a record since 1969 (divisional play).  He also has 13 homer runs against every other team this year.

This is Torres's stat line against Baltimore (I could be slightly off)

24-54 .414/.492/1.138 for an off the charts OPS of 1.630!

So when Baltimore faced Torres again with 1st and 2nd 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th inning, it made statistical sense to intentionally walk him to load the bases (as absurd as that is).  It did work as Gardner who has been swinging well, grounded out.  It looked even smarter when Baltimore rallied to score 2 runs and have bases loaded with 1 out and the score 11-8 Yankees.  The winning run stepped to the plate, but Ottavino struck out Villar and then got Mancini, and his 29 HR's to fly out to end the game.

Other Notes from over the past week:

• It is amazing that we keep plugging on with so many players still on the IL.  Sanchez is back now and that helps (assuming he will hit better than our backups who stepped up and hit great).  Need Sanchez to hit like he is capable as he is a difference maker.
• While on Sanchez, the other day he took a foul tip off his throwing hand because he had it hanging on his leg rather than behind him.  I have harped on this for all catchers for 20 years as it makes ZERO sense to not have your hand behind your leg/back when there is nobody on base.  There is no excuse to get a foul tip off the hand with nobody on; it is just dumb (with 2 strikes on the batter you may bring the hand out to block a pitch in the dirt).  Many catchers do the same thing and it is mind boggling to me.  Even if he could play afterward, it has an impact as you are not 100% (a catcher is never 100% but you are less than whatever % you are at).  I argue, even with runners on base you keep it behind and you react to move it if the runner is stealing  or if the ball is in the dirt.
• Sanchez has an OPS of .797 which is still a lot better than Romine (.698) but needs to be at least .825 and should be mid .800's
• Judge has been swinging very poorly for a long period of time.  It shows how great a player he is that his OPS is still .860, but his path to the ball has too much of an uppercut and he is just not hitting it is consistently as he should.  He missing very hittable pitches and this has been going on for a long time.  It looks to me that he is dipping his back shoulder too much, but someone needs to compare his swings as he has not been swinging well at all.  In his last 65 plate appearances (15 games) he has a .189/.348/.283 stat line for an OPS of .631.
• Ford is not really a major league player.  He has not been awful, but he is just not able to hit at the major league level, especially for a slow footed 1B.  We need one of our three 1B back soon (it will be Edwin and/or Voit)
• Tauchman - What can you say about this guy?  He has been a huge help to us, supplying very good defense (including making an outstanding leaping catch to steal a HR where his shoulder was above the wall on his leap) and a very surprising OPS of .941, which is 2nd on the team!  Tauchman has about 225 plate appearances as well so it isn't just 50 or 100 AB's.  He has played outstanding and is a large part of why we have been so good.  He has an odd swing that I don;t think plays as well as he has played, however, he does hit to all fields which could keep him in many AB's and is harder to pitch to.  He will come down some as teams adjust, but he has the ability to adjust as well.  He is 28 and a late bloomer as he started to hit well in the minors at the age of 26.   Great pickup!
• The other surprise has been Maybin.  A 32 year old who likes to hug, has been a mediocre at best MLB player, who had around a .695 OPS coming into this year and has an OPS of .917 for us in almost 200 PA's.  His defense is fairly decent, but he is weaker than any of our other OF'rs not named Frazier (who should be better than he played)
• The biggest surprise so far this year has been Urshela.  He has played excellent defense and has our best OPS at .963!  He also stepped in after Andujar went down and has been a fantastic player.  The only question right now is whether he has been the MVP so far or whether it is ...
• LeMahieu - .916 OPS and has been so valuable playing good defense at 3 infield positions.  This flexibility out of he and Torres has been huge to whether our absurd amount of injuries.  Also, while hitting with RISP is not a repeatable skill (stats tell us this), you can perform well in those spots and DJ has been excellent with runners in scoring position (1.078 OPS with a .418 BA in 113 Plate Appearances).  He has an OPS of only .697 in late and close situations (57 PA's), but his avg is .298 which is fine.  Urshela has an OPS of .901 with RISP and an OPS of .835 in late and close, but you can choose either one if you ask me.  Urshela was unexpected so I would say he has performed much better than expected.
• Switching gears, I was Surprised that Houston has the highest OPS of any team at .839, then Minnesota (expected) at .833 and then the Yankees at .832.  In the playoffs, anyone can win a series, but Houston has an excellent team.
• This Yankee team can play better.  Yes, we have had people step up and play better than expected, but we still have our best starting pitcher (Severino), our 2nd/3rd best reliever (Betances) and we have two huge upgrades at 1B waiting to get back into the lineup.  I would rest players as needed, but in the meantime, I would play DJ at 1B most of the time until they come back.  We also have Hicks and Stanton to come back while Sanchez and Judge have room for improvement.  
• The above is why I was 100% fine that we didn't mortgage the future for a pitcher that MAY have been better than what we have, but was no sure thing.  I gave my opinions on going after an ace, but getting another 3rd type of starter didn't make sense to me and clearly not at the price we were being shaken down for.  I think Cashman has done a great job as we have a team that can win the World Series and we are poised to be a playoff team for many years.