161 More To Go!

OK, it was the Orioles and their lineup was more of a AAA team, but a win is a win.

Most of the action was around our first baseman.  Luke started things off after both Judge and Stanton went through the right side for hits.  After taking a strike from a fastball and then taking a fastball, change and a slider for balls, he saw a low slider over the middle of the plate that Voit launched into CF for a 3 run HR that we never looked back from.  The plate discipline set that up and as I mentioned in my post yesterday, I think he is a really good hitter and a great find from Cashman.

Bird was visible yesterday as well as he struck out 3 times (the 3rd was a ball outside) and also contributed to an error on a long throw by Andujar that I thought was Bird's fault.  Bird didn't stretch to the ball (he does that too often) and the ball ticked off his glove on a fly; I think that was Bird's error.  Later, Bird got a break on a terrible 0-2 pitch by a lefty where a hanging slider was put into the crowd for a HR.

Every Yankee got on base via a hit or a walk so that was good to see and 8 of the 9 starters got hits (Gardner didn't)

I liked the Yankees pitchers only walking one guy all game

Ottavino impressed me with his fastball.  His slider is excellent, but I was surprised to a 95 MPH fastball that had great tail to it.  This gives him two pitches at different speeds that move in opposite directions.  I can see why he is deadly on righties.

Tulo has kind of a sweeping uppercut when he swings; it is a little strange

1-0 and we have a 1 game lead on the Red Sox as they got crushed 12-4 by Seattle (Sale took the loss)

On to Saturday!

OPENING DAY!

I hope everyone is ready for opening day!

I want to get right into some of my thoughts on the offseason moves:

Overall, I like the way the Yankees have approached most situations since Cashman got deep into his role.  The one I was very outspoken against was the signing of Ellsbury and that was just because we gave elite money for just a good player (the fact he hasn’t been good is not really Cashman’s fault, but paying elite money after a career year was a mistake.

This was an interesting offseason with Harper and Manny out there.  I was OK with either one, but I think they both got more than they should have (too long for so much money).  That being said, I am not a big fan of signing ok to decent guys for middle dollars (6-12 mil).    This is not a rule, but a general concept and here is why.  I have been a huge supporter of Gardner over the years and he is still valuable, but the value at 7.5 mil (the 2 mil was his no matter what) isn’t great.  The value of Ottavino at 9 mil isn’t great, the value of LeMahieu (I know I will misspell his name most of the time) isn’t great.  I actually like the Paxton signing for 8.6 mil as I think he was a clear need and worthy.  Any combination of these guys may end up being great value or poor value (nothing is exact), and to be fair, none of the signings was a head-scratcher like the Ellsbury signing (although LeMahieu/Ottavino was a slight head turner) – and I will go through each one, but here is my thought process.  Are the Yankees a better team with Gardner, Ottavino, and LeMahieu or Bryce Harper, “Jonathan Loaisiga” and “Tyler Wade”?   The answer is Harper for similar money.  Now the longevity of the commitment matters, but the concept still holds.

The Yankees traded Sonny Gray for Josh Stowers a fast OF with a minor league .790 OPS.  He was the 10 best prospect with Seattle and is 22.  We need some OF help and hopefully, he can bring that in a year or two.

Gardner: Coming off a 690 OPS which was the worst of his career is a concern.  I actually think he may do a little better this year (700+ ops?) and still play a top-notch LF for us, but he should not play against any lefties (when we are at full strength.  Gardy works hard and I have been a huge supporter of him but this is it for him and he is getting a little more than he is probably worth, but with a lack of depth and injuries, along with waiting for Frazier to get healthy and shake off the rust (he had a terrible spring), this is a needed and reasonable move.

CC: 5.28 IP per start is too low, but his 3.65 ERA was really good.  At 8 mil that is not a bad price for only a one-year commitment.  Still much better against lefties and can be used as a LOOGY if needed.  I would be happy with a 4 ERA from CC, but as a #5 that is pretty good!

Ottavino: 33 years old – 3 years at 9 each seemed on the high side for me.  He has a whiffle ball wicked slider and coming from Colorado is a plus for a pitcher as that is a tougher place to pitch (even is somehow he was better at home).  He was not good in the postseason getting a loss and a blown save in 3 appearances.  He will be good out of the pen, but I didn’t think this is where I would spend 9 mil – (Update: with Betances banged up this helps)

DJ Lemahieu – 30 years old -  2 years at 24 mil barely more than the 11.75 Didi makes.  In reverse of having a Colorado pitcher, DJ may be a product of “playing on the moon” in Colorado as his OPS is about 80 points higher in CO.  That is not a crazy split though, what he has a larger split is against lefties and righties where his OPS is almost 250 points higher against lefties over the past 2 years.  He is a stellar defender and he is probably about a .725 OPS guy with the upside to do more, but also has a downside.  If Didi wasn’t hurt this signing would never have happened, but I also wonder what happens after Didi comes back?  I would not surprised if DJ plays every game against lefties and a few against righties as we see Tulo start to tire a little at SS.  I would rather keep Torres at 2^nd base all the time (with some rest) rather than jumping him back and forth and letting DJ play some SS and be a defensive replacement for Andujar (who I would let play a lot defensively so he gets some confidence and doesn’t feel that he will be replaced).  I don’t expect great defense from Andujar, but guys can get better and let’s support that process in the early part of the season (and his career).

James Paxton – 30 yrs old – We have to be cautious here as his highest inning total was last year at 160 IP, but if you step back and look at his innings he has increased from 67–121-136-160 and that is a nice progression.  Of course, we have to be smart not to overwork him as the postseason is what matters.  He has a real live arm and I thought this was a great signing. 

No Brainers:

Gio Gonzalez: 33 years old, signed only a minor league deal and 3 mil if he makes the 25 man roster (which he didn’t out of spring training) and I believe 300k a start on top of it.  He may be better to use as a lefty out of the pen as well based on an OPS against of only about .550 over the last 2 years (appx. 722 OPS against righties), but worth a shot if needed and if not you dump him

Tulowitzki – 34 years old, but getting some possible SS help for the league minimum is a great move.  I don’t expect greatness here, but I expect play that if it were a rookie would be exciting.  We should get adequate production while Didi is out, but make no mistake that Didi needs to come back and produce for us.  Tulo had an OPS of around .720 over the past 3 years away from Colorado and at 34 it is hard to expect great defense or a huge turnaround.  He did have a great spring training, but as the new shiny cheap toy, I think the .970 OPS is out of reach.  We should be happy with a mid .700 OPS and decent defense.

Andujar – I already spoke about his defense, but the stick is great and he is the reason we don’t have Manny.  If you don’t trade Andujar you can’t get Manny.  People talk about Manny at SS, but he is simply not a good defensive SS, but he is an elite defensive 3^rd baseman.  I think Andujar could hit with Manny, but the defense is a big difference.  That being said the value of Andujar over Manny is tremendous and allows us to sign a Paxton, Ottavino and LeMahieu for the same money.  Just so you don’t confuse what I said earlier, the difference here is that Andujar is incredibly valuable at his current salary.

First Base – Bird is having a good spring and while he was behind the fastball and ahead of the curve last year, he does have a plan at the plate.  His swing is a little slow so he has to cheat when he swings, but he was able to hit a HR off of a very tough lefty (Andrew Miller) in the postseason.  He has a swing for Yankee stadium and in such a right-handed lineup he is an important player for us to be productive.  That being said, I think we found a really good hitter in Voit.  He is 27 so he isn’t so young, but he has been a hitter at every level and he should continue to rake for us.  I don’t expect a .1.095 OPS like he had for us, but I think he is our best hitting first baseman and my hope is that he will DH with Bird playing well at 1B.  He will also play some 1b, especially against some lefties (we probably won’t see that many) and we can give Judge and Stanton some rest.  When Hicks comes back we will see what happens with Bird, but I don’t think Voit is a Shane Spencer and we won’t hear from him again; I think he will remain a productive major league hitter.

Other additions – Mike Tauchman made the roster instead of Tyler Wade (who had a very good spring).  Tauchman is an OF who from the stats doesn’t belong on our team.  My expectation is he won’t be for long and I don’t understand why a minor leaguer wouldn’t be a better choice (other than waiting on arbitration) 

Tarpley – Sinkerballing lefty who is 26 – He was part of what we got in the Ivan Nova trade and with us last year

Injuries:

Didi: - We really need him back, but hopefully Tulo can help us.  I have no idea what we will do when Didi comes back, but trades will happen.

Betances is out and this does make the Ottavino signing better, but we do have a lot of arms and we need to hope Kahnle can get going again and don’t forget we have Green…Our bullpen is still excellent without Betances and thus why I thought the Ottavino signing was a little overkill.  I would expect we deal some of the bullpen arms at some point.

Hicks – Back issues are a concern, but the hope is he will be back in 2-3 weeks

Severino is key for us as we need to get him back and he needs to be an ace.  We won’t have him until mid-May probably

Montgomery – He should be back at the end of the year but hard to expect anything this year

Ellsbury – Not counting on anything, BUT, if he is healthy, he could help us in our OF right now.  Maybe we get him for the 2^nd half and he has a resurgence?  Can always hope

I keep getting asked what I think of this team?  Outside of the injuries, this is a very good team.  I think Boone is very competent and showed the ability to adapt.  He made some mistakes, but he is at least as good as Girardi and he has more upside.  The starters, when healthy are better than people give us credit for even if not a top 5+ rotation, but our bullpen is the best in the majors.  Our offense is really good and our defense is decent (hard to know what we get out of Tulo).  This is a team that will get to the playoffs barring a lot of injuries and can win the World Series.  We are one of the best 4 teams in the majors and that is what you want going in.

One quick note, baseball changed the trade deadline and move it closer to the start of the season to stop teams from buying a one-year championship.  I actually like that rule, but something to keep in mind later in the year/

Let’s have a great year!