Wednesday, October 6, 2021

The End Of A Crazy Year

I liked the lineup Boone used.  I think it was the best lineup with what we have and how we are playing.  Rizzo leading off made more sense than Gardy.

Stanton hit a high fly ball in the 1st inning that he didn't hit that well and for some reason he watched it instead of running.  He should have been on 2nd base and even that pressure changes things a lot.  Eovaldi might have pitched around Judge as well?  I don't get not running hard in a game like this, especially when you clearly didn't get all of the hit?  Remember Tito Perez, of the Mets, when he didn't run against the Yankees in the World Series and we threw him out at home?  I thought that was pathetic.  Hard to be critical of Stanton when he is the only one who showed up in a big way, but it is a little head-scratching.

The big blow in the bottom of the inning happened with 2 outs and Cole walked Devers after getting him 1-2 and not throwing his change or his fastball where he wanted it.  Against Bogaerts, he threw a curve that he missed with, a slider for a strike and then missing after missing with the slider, they decided to throw a changeup?  I think this was a bad decision as it is the same speed as his slider, but it was worse as he threw it right down the middle of the plate and Bogaerts drilled it for a 2 run HR and the Yanks were in a big hole considering how poorly we are swinging the bats.

Cole got through the 2nd but did allow a double.

Cole only threw 3 curves, but he didn't throw any for strikes and that is his slowest pitch and an important one.  He missed many spots by a lot and some ended up being centered and the others were way out of the strike zone.  Contrast that to the Red Sox and when their pitchers missed they caught the other corner many times.  The Red Sox seemed to know what was coming and really sat on the fastball as the damage was done on it.  Schwarber hit a 1-2 fastball that was well above the strike zone for a pulled HR.  That happens when that is the pitch you are sitting on, otherwise, it is impossible to catch up to 97 that high.  We didn't have good pitch selection or execution of pitches.

Holmes did a great job.

Louisiga did his job.  The only question I had was sending him out for a 2nd inning after he hasn't done that since his shoulder injury and he wasn't that sharp.

Severino isn't at full strength yet as he usually has a fastball like Cole, but he was throwing 93-95.  I have faith in him, but he is not the same yet.

I was really surprised that they took Eovaldi out too early.  I was thrilled they took him out as he had good stuff (The best breaking ball I have seen from him) and he was hitting corners on 3-2 pitches.  He even hesitated his windup a little (minny Cortes).  We then greeted the weaker Red Sox bullpen with the play of the game.   Stanton hit a bullet out off the Green monster that I think would have been gone in most ballparks (They said 11, but I am not sure that is accurate), and Judge who was on first because he legged out a grounder to SS was waived around 3rd from Nevin and was out at the plate.  Nevin didn't give Judge any indication of what he was going to do until Judge was 3 steps from 3rd and had already slowed up a little and had to chop step and get going again.  What Nevin needed to do is waive Judge home (all the way from 2nd) so he stays at full speed and then hold him up at the last minute or you keep waiving him around, but by doing nothing so late, and remember Judge saw it didn't go out and the wall is close, Judge slowed up as he got close to 3rd.  You don't want to round the base and then get doubled off either.  Nevins indecision was the most important play of the game (Bogaerts 2 run HR was up there) and was simply a critically bad job on a tough call.  However, if he followed my advice, there is a solid chance that Judge would have been safe if he was running full speed the entire time or you just stop him.  

Nevin has been pretty good at 3rd base, but he has had some poor decisions and they might have been after he had Covid.  This was horribly bad though and had me cursing!

Stanton was the only player who really showed up.  

This team has had a ton of injuries, Britton was a key issue for us and all the pitching injuries were really absurd, but our pitching staff and the coaching knows what they are doing.  Turning Clay Holmes around is a good example and getting a lot from unexpected guys has been impressive.  

Our offensive injuries were hard to overcome.  Hicks was an important player for us (even if not a great player) because we didn't have a CF replacement.  Gardner was forced in again and was mediocre, but hard to expect more from a guy who will probably retire (sadly, he struck out all 3 AB's).  Voit had an injury-plagued year after we kind of made it hard for him.  I think the goal-line offense (Judge in CF and Stanton in RF) was needed for this team, but it never developed and Voit got injured again.  His bat was very helpful for us. DJ being hurt is a big deal and Urshela was pretty banged up in this game as well. 

We have Gallo for another year and I don't love his game.  I like that he does everything above avg, but he seems like a guy who feasts off bad pitching.  

We have to deal with Torres now at 2nd base and we have all this money in DJ who had a poor year.  Putting him at 1B is not a great solution.  We should blow up our Catcher position as neither is the answer.  I like Rizzo, but do we want to spend a lot of money on a 32 year old who didn't play well for us?  Surprisingly, his defense was avg and that was one thing we thought would be excellent.  He also had the last 2 years where his OPS 80 points less than his career so he is showing decline.

Coaching and GM?  I think they both know what they are doing, but neither has gotten the job done to extend the year toward the WS.  The grass isn't always greener (Giant fans know that Gettlemen was a horrible choice).  Have to think about this.

Either way, we need to make some overhauls.  I like using minor leaguers and studs.  I am not a fan of the middle-priced guys on the Yankees other than some bandaids.  Judge is a big decision.  He is arbitration-eligible in 22 and at the least, we do that.  He is 29 and will be 30 at the end of next year.   I don't want a long-term deal with him, but overpaying for 3 years could work.  He is our best player, but his injuries are a concern and they probably will get worse.  Maybe he gives us a discount?  No idea, but I do not want to lock him up until he is 35.  

This is a little all over the place, but I wanted to get down some of my thoughts...

Thank you all for reading this year and the feedback/emails!  It is hard for me to write often, but I will keep trying!  Stay healthy everyone!


Tuesday, October 5, 2021

It Comes Down To One Game

 

I am getting asked what I think of this game against the Red Sox for the right to play Tampa in a 5 game series.

First, I like the playoff system the way it is.  If after 162 games you have not been able to distinguish yourself as the leader of the division, then it is fair that you do not make the playoffs.  However, by allowing teams to get in for the wild card you make it a large penalty of having to play an elimination game first and thus also rewarding the division winners with the “bye.”  It also keeps some teams/fans interested later in the season which is good.  This is the way a playoff system should work as it also does not allow too many teams into the playoffs.

As for the game, as I stated before, this team can’t surprise me.  We could lay an egg, we could lose with terrible defense, we could lose with terrible base running or an odd managerial move.  Hey, Cole could stink as well.  We also could pitch well, hit well and blow them out.  Nothing would surprise me. 

If I had to make a prediction based on an average outcome, I would say the Yankees win 5-3, but I am not betting on this game, mostly because of our inconsistent offense.  Cole is a better pitcher than Eovaldi, but Nathan is solid.  I like the Yankees bullpen and honestly like the Yankees offense better, but they have simply not played up to their expected output.  The Yankees have the worst offense of any team in the AL and are actually worse than every team offensively (based on runs scored) except wild card STL.  The other AL playoff teams averaged 836 runs and the Yankees scored 711.  The NL playoff teams with the pitcher hitting score more than the Yankees and the 5 teams averaged 774 runs (STL scored 706 as the only team worse than the Yanks).  Isn’t that a little shocking that the offense is so poor?

A few quick comments:

1.       While Higgy isn’t very good all around, I am glad he is starting over Sanchez.  The best-case scenario is that Higgy catches the entire game.

2.       With DJ and Voit out, I would go with our defensive team and play Velazquez at SS and have Gio play 3rd.  Being banged up after that amazing catch will make it even harder for him to play SS at the level we need him to.  Further, I think we are so much better defensively with Gio at 3rd and Velazquez at SS.  If you need to pinch-hit you can in a key spot.  I doubt the Yankees do that, but I don’t want to give away any runs.  Odor has an OPS of .665 (.625 against righties) and is 1-14 over the last month.  Velazquez is not a good offensive player with a .594 OPS (but .651 against righties) and is 2-8 in the last month.  Offensively, they are close against righties but more importantly, the defense would be much better at 3rd and SS and one play might tilt the scale.  Of course, Odor could hit a HR and he does have experience, but I would rather give Cole our best defense and I would bet that having much better defense at SS and 3rd is a larger difference than the bat against a righty.

3.       Having Loaisiga back is huge for us and honestly, he is the guy I trust most in the bullpen and he is just coming back from his injury.  But, Chapman, Holmes and Green are quality arms.  King and Severino give us more help and I wouldn’t have any issue trusting Severino.  German is a solid guy as well, but if he is in that means something went wrong with Cole.  Peralta has been pretty good from the left side and is a little better against lefties and Luetge has been our best guy against lefties (.520 OPS).

4.       In these games I believe we have a 26 man roster.  I have seen people say we should have 13 and 13 pitchers/players.  I don’t think we need 13 pitchers, especially as you can’t mix and match as well as you used to.  So I am in favor of specialists as players in this one game.  I would bring up Florial to get some speed and defense if needed.  I would also look for specialists such as a great bunter or more speed or defense.  But, we surely don’t need 13 pitchers for one game

I hope I get to write more!