Wednesday, December 9, 2009

2010 off season #2

Good to see all the responses from people!

I thought I would answer some of the thoughts/questions:

Yes, I will do my end of year in review to see how my predictions went.

Yes, I still like the Granderson trade after sleeping on it J He is only making 5.5 mil next year. It should be noted, even if it is absurd, but Joba and Hughes were who the Tigers asked for at the start…

No, I doubt the Yankees will correctly start Granderson only against righties. What I do hope though is that they use Granderson in all OF spots so that we can have our best defensive team in there, but Gardner should be in CF if he is playing. I get the feeling Melky will be traded.

Some people are concerned about Granderson’s low OBP and how it will work if he is at the top of the order. Yes, it was low last year, but that was mostly because of 180 AB’s against lefties. He has walked over 70 times each of the last 2 seasons with an average of about 60 walks against righties. The 72 walks last year were the same as Damon and Jeter so he does walk; his BA was just very low last year. The 2 previous years his OBP was .363. In fact, if you took his last 3 years, his numbers are basically what Damon’s were last year. I think those numbers would improve with less playing time against lefties and while not playing against lefties decreases his value, having an OPS over the last 3 years of .940 with a .378 OBP against righties is extremely valuable, especially out of CF.

I mentioned I get the feeling Melky gets traded and that is because he is an ok 4th OF, but he really doesn’t stand out anywhere. His defense on the corners is solid, but as a CF’r he lacks range. As a hitter he is OK for CF, but is too weak to be a corner OF’r. So he is a little bit of a tweener and I would trade him if there is a market.

I would let Damon go and be more likely to keep Matsui if the dollars worked, because he will pay for himself in marketing to Japan. Yeah, I know people are always quick to spend the Yankee money, but they do work within a budget and the money saved can always be used for the stretch run or a free agent next year.

Based on trading Melky, I would not be surprised if the Yanks went after Bay or Holliday. The only part is what do they get paid? They are just a notch below Texiera in value so will they get a 4 year deal worth $17-18 mil a year or so? That is probably about right. Not sure I want to invest them at this point in time. However, if the Yanks said they were dropping both Matsui and Damon and then they picked up one of those guys they would still have reduced they payroll slightly when you take into account Pettitte and Granderson…almost a wash. I think I would rather get Matsui for another year and then have the money freed up to grab Halladay as a free agent or whoever else is there. I don’t want to trade for Halladay based on his money and the people to give up.

I also would not shut the door on Lackey. I would definitely test the waters for him as he is a very good pitcher and throwing CC, Burnett, Lackey, Pettitte and Hughes would be a great rotation. If the money was the same, I would rather Lackey than the LF’rs and I would make due with less in other areas. We were able to free up 5 mil for Wang, I would drop Hairston (2mil), drop Molina (2+ mil) Hinske (1+ mil) and you will pickup almost 10 mil (taking away about a mil for Cervelli and Pena.

I don’t know what the Yankees are thinking, but I would keep Joba in the pen and move Hughes to the rotation. As you know, I think there is a lot more value in a starter than a setup guy, but Joba seems much more comfortable in the bullpen and Hughes has stuff that is better suited for the rotation.

Other notes: Pettitte signed for 11.75 mil for a year. I think they paid too much for Pettitte, but maybe it is a 1 year thank you. Not sure why they had to guarantee the money and they would have been much better off doing what they did last year, even if they started the base at 7 mil instead of 5 mil like last year…either way though a thanks you is OK.

Bruney – the player to be named later is the first pick in Thursday’s rule 5 draft that the Nationals had, so that it is actually pretty good.

Keep enjoying the fact we are Champions!

The Genius Maker tm is a tribute to Mariano Rivera who makes coaches look a like a genius...

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