The end of a successful year. 100 wins and the implementation of Torres and Andujar into our infield. Andujar’s defense is still weak (when a defensive substitution is Neil Walker at 3rd you know you have some issues), but his offense has been excellent. We also overcame numerous injuries and didn’t mortgage our minor leagues to get here. We are in excellent position for the future…but the future starts this Wednesday!
Let’s get right to the decisions and the good and bad.
The big question is who should we start? This is part of “the bad.” The answer should be Severino without hesitation. However, he has not been very sharp for some time. His OPS against was .580 in the first half (2.31 ERA) and .821 OPS against with an ERA of 5.43 in the 2nd half. Severino had an ERA of 3.56 against Boston in 5 starts and 6.23 in 2 starts against Oakland. I don’t think starting Severino is the best solution. I know some people have talked about Happ being able to pitch twice against Boston as we will need him to win that series. This may be true, but you do have to get there. Happ has pitched once against Oakland going 6 innings allowing 2 hits and one walk. Not a huge sample size, but he pitched well. Happ has an ERA of 1.99 against Boston in 4 starts. He did allow 6 unearned runs in 22 innings though (which is a huge amount). His OPS against is an excellent .564 (.478 against Oakland for that one start). Tanaka is an option as well and has not pitched against Oakland this year. I actually like that because not knowing what a guy actually looks like is a plus. Tanaka has been awful against Boston in his 4 games; having an ERA of 7.58 and an OPS against of over 1. Tanaka’s last 5 starts have been good and I have confidence in him. I think our best chance to win the game is Happ and followed by Tanaka. Based on the goal of winning the World Series, our best overall chance is to roll the dice with Tanaka so that Happ can pitch twice against Boston. That being said, you have to get there first and starting Happ can’t be questioned. I do not think Severino is the right answer.
Bad: I have little confidence in our bullpen. This was something I did not expect to think or write. But, who do you trust? I might have said Britton and then the other day he simply couldn’t throw a strike with anything but his straight fastball. Overall, he has been our best pitcher down the stretch and the guy I trust the most. Betances started the year terribly and then since then has been good. Down the stretch though he wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t as sharp; remember last year he struggled down the stretch far worse than this year. He could throw a ball over the backstop or nail a wicked curve on the outside corner, but he is always a risk with runners on base. Robertson is hard to have any confidence in as he simply is missing spots at an alarming rate and has been awful in the final 2 weeks. Holder has a 5 ERA in the 2nd half and I would not pitch him unless very early in the game where you need some innings. Chapman was having a really good year and then struggled with his injury. He has pitched 4.1 innings since coming back and has walked 3 batters while only allowing 2 hits and striking out 9. That is a line that shows what we can expect out of him and guys like Betances and Britton. They all have great stuff, but can they control their repertoire? Green has been solid over the last month and is probably the guy to trust the most, but he hasn’t been sharp in his location either. Overall, a 2.50 ERA is someone you could pitch and feel good about most of the time though. I thought the pen would be a huge advantage for us, but it just hasn’t been.
Hitting:
We have our team back and that is really good. The most important part of getting healthier has been Judge. He changes the lineup substantially. Unfortunately, since coming back he simply hasn’t been Judge. His OPS is only .675 since coming back, but he has been getting better of late (.763 over his last 5 games.). He needs to be a weapon for us!
Didi – He was playing great until he got hurt sliding head first into home plate (this really should not happen unless a critical play in the postseason.). Same as Judge, he hasn’t been sharp since returning (hand injuries are tough to swing through)
Stanton – Overall, his year was below expectations at .852, but the hope is he can be a force in the playoffs as he tends to be streaky
Sanchez – Someone who can be a difference maker for us. Unfortunately, he had an awful year at the plate finishing with an OPS of .697. Like a lot of our team, we finished the year better, but was that because we were facing weaker pitching in non-leveraged situations? Regardless, confidence is important and he had a good last week and hopefully he can contribute offensively, otherwise, he won’t start every game (hoping we have more than 1 game)
Romine – I would not start him against Oakland, but he is an option in a series to catch a game here and there if Sanchez doesn’t hit. When playing every day (which is hard for a catcher because of all the little dings and hits you take every game) as well as returning to the mean showed a huge difference as he had an OPS of .825 in the first half and a .597 in the 2nd half.
Luke Voit – What can you say about this guy. Bird faltered and this guy stepped up HUGE. .333/.405/689 for a 1.095 OPS! This was in 132 AB’s also so not a very small sample size. He has adjusted very well and while he has a hole up and in, pitchers are not good at throwing there often/consistently. For perspective, if you took what he has done and gave him the same amount of AB’s as Stanton (617), he would have 65 homers and 154 RBI’s. This gives you an idea of how good he has been and he has finished the year stronger with an OPS of 1.128 over the last month.
Andujar- This guy is a hitter; his 47th double tied the rookie major league record! He has been the most consistent guy for us and finishing at .855 is extremely respectable and promising.
Torres – Struggled after coming back and his OPS dropped to .822 (which is still solid for a slick middle infielder).
Hicks – Overall has done very well considering he had 220 more AB’s this year than in his entire career. .833 OPS was very solid playing CF. He also was pretty consistent by month considering he was always a streaky hitter)
Walker – The guy I predicted would be much better in the 2nd half, did come through for us. He had an OPS of .788 (compared to .563 in the 1st half) and hit righties well. That still is not a great OPS but respectable. He will be a guy off the bench and possibly a pinch hitter.
McCutchen – He has played well for us (.892 OPS) and I really liked the pickup as it gives us depth and options.
Even though we have our team back, with so many guys not playing their best down the stretch, we need to turn it up to have a chance to extend the season deep into October.
267 homers is the most ever by a team! The offense will have to be strong for us to compete and while we have struggled since coming back from all of our injuries, we are a very formidable team. I hope we beat Oakland and think we have a better than 50% chance, probably closer to 60%. Then we have a below 50% chance of beating the Red Sox, but one thing at a time.
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