Grienke did not impress me or scare me last night. He doesn't hurt himself with walks and is usually a very crafty righty, but he left too many fastballs (at 90) in the heart of the plate and we didn't take advantage of them, in fact, we took many for strikes and didn't get good hacks on others. After 3 innings we had no runs and I thought our approach was to blame as we were looking for the breaking ball and we gave up too many strikes not being ready for a very hittable fastball. I was going to list the players, but it was almost everyone. Greinke also missed his spots often and was a little lucky that they ended up on the opposite corner of what he was shooting for. We got 3 runs in 6 off of Greinke but I felt we left at least 1-2 runs on the table.
Gleyber got us going with a double on a 1st pitch slider that was over the heart of the plate. Torres' next time up saw him jump on a first-pitch fastball centered as well for a dinger! The next time Gleyber came up was the AB of the game. 7th inning, 3-0 lead and with 2 outs and nobody on, Didi and DJ singled before Judge lined a hard hit to RF that was a questionable decision to send Didi home. It was a good call to hold him up, but the throw was really weak by Tucker as it was up the 3rd baseline and had many hops. Tucker had made a weak throw before so that is something to look for as usually, one would expect the RF to have a decent arm, but not in this case. The first pitch was a slider for a ball (smart move by Houston to not throw him a strike on the 1st pitch, but a closer pitch might have had him chase. He then took a great curve for a strike before swinging through a high strike fastball. Gleyber than took a fastball and what looked like a cutter for a ball (it was faster than a slider). The runners are now going on a 3-2 count and Pressley throws Torres a slow curve that ended up just out of the strike zone, but Gleyber was able to stick the bat out and bloop one into CF with a huge 2 run single. We caught a break on the location, but we also had plenty of hard-hit balls caught as well. Huge play!
Tanaka was outstanding! I thought he was a little lucky against Minnesota, but also the bite on his splitter was better and his slider has been good as well. Last night was the best he has pitched, maybe ever. He was on the corners all day and the bite on his splitter was as good as we have ever seen it. His slider was also good and was located great. He didn't leave his fastball over the plate, even if he did throw a few higher than I would have liked (loses its effectiveness if it isn't close). Tanaka now has an ERA of 1.32 in 7 postseason games (41 innings) and is now a record holder for not allowing more than 2 ER in any of those first 7 postseason starts (the records will get turned upside down with the bullpen starter now). So why would Boone take Tanaka out when he was in full and complete control and had thrown only 68 pitches and had faced the minimum batters (18)? In the 6th, Houston popped out weakly twice and struck out? It was a bad decision that worked out, but that doesn't excuse the decision. I am of the philosophy that the less they see us of our bullpen the less they can adjust and get used to them. More important was that Tanaka was in complete control, not showing any negative signs, in fact, he might have been better. Now, if you are so bold to say that he might use Tanaka in game 4 and game 7, I could see limiting him, but I thought he was a pitcher who liked his rest (I could be wrong)? Anyway, rushing to pull Tanaka to get Ottavino in, who has not pitched well, was also surprising. With the righty Springer up and the lefty Brantley you had two guys who are better against righties, followed by the two guys you would want Ottavino to face, Altuve and Bergman as they are lefty killers and Ottavino is so tough on righties. So why not let Tanaka pitch to the first two batters and see what happens? If you really felt like Tanaka might struggle, have a lefty (CC if he can pitch or Tyler Lyons) ready to face Brantley if Tanaka doesn't get Springer out and then bring Ottavino to face the two righties. This was not thought out well but thankfully did not hurt us.
Some Notes:
- DJ made a bunch of scoops yesterday and had an excellent defensive game
- Didi and Gleyber had a mix up on a grounder up the middle on the SS side. Allowing that single made it 1st and 3rd with one out and could have been a huge play if we didn't get a DP right after that. I think it was Didi's fault, even if he thought Gleyber was playing up the middle more and was going to get it, why didn't Didi break harder to the bag?
- Judge found another way to get the job done with a nice line drive catch and then making a strong and accurate throw to double up Bergman who didn't do a good job reading the play. Judge is such a good defensive OF, saving a lot of bases/runs with his arm.
- EE bad game, he was not swinging at good fastball strikes and then striking out on a 3-2 count on a slider that wasn't close. He wasn't swinging poorly, it was all his approach at the plate and if he was guessing, he guessed wrong almost every time. He can flip the switch tonight!
- Sanchez doesn't look good; getting the one hit on a very high and outside pitch that floated into CF
- Urshela seems to be getting the groove back with a line out to Bergman who made a great play and then homering to RF. Stanton also had a single and a line HR to RC.
- This win was important though as Houston will throw Verlander and Cole 4 of the remaining games. We will have to beat them at least once and tonight is as good a time as any!
- Loaisiga looked sharp with a fastball at 99 and then at 97 he had a lot of run/fade on his fastball. If he can harness the control part of it he can be a big plus.
- Hicks being on the roster was very interesting. I noted that it will be interesting to see if they use him as a defensive replacement and they did not. That means that he is still not ready yet in their minds because they had their chance to give him a shot in a game with a lead and they chose not to use him. A few more days may be needed for him, but our best defensive lineup is having him in CF and Gardner in LF.
- We have to beat Verlander or Cole at least once; let's get that out of the way tonight!
Boone likes to take out his pitchers after they have faced the opposing lineup twice. It doesn't matter how well they are pitching; he takes them out. Tanaka's statistics the third time through the order are terrible, and that is just about the only thing Boone considers.
ReplyDeleteI believe as much as you do in learning from the statistics and using them in your decisions, but I feel that taking out a pitcher who is pitching flawlessly and whose pitch count is low is being too much of a slave to the statistics. It's not just because the batters have seen you twice already that they perform better. Pitchers are usually getting tired by that point, and that is a huge factor. It's doubtful that Tanaka was getting tired. Also, there was a 5 run lead just in case keeping him in proved to be a mistake.
Our pitchers are not going to shut down this Houston lineup all series long. Any chance to rest the relievers without downside (I don't think the plan is to have Tanaka pitch games 4 and 7) is an opportunity to gain advantage in a series. There are dinosaurs who refuse to believe that analytics have any value, and that anything new that wasn't around when they were kids is ignorable trendy nonsense. GMs and managers who fall into this group of dinosaurs are rapidly disappearing because they are no longer being successful. However, there are also those who blindly follow analytics regardless of the situation, and that is not optimal either. Boone and Cashman seem to have bought into this 100%, and are ignoring the eye test almost completely. It's working extremely well, so it's hard to argue with, but I think a little bit of flexibility would make it work even better. I think last night's decision to take Tanaka out is a perfect example of this.