Thursday, August 13, 2020

The Save

I will post about the most recent game and confirm comments I have made many times.  I believe managers use their closer's differently because of the save rule.  Last night was a great example.  The Yankees had used all their most reliable relievers going into the 9th inning and had a 4 run lead.  Why not just bring your closer in at that moment?  I get that 4 runs is more than 3, but the goal is to win the game while also setting yourself up for a better chance of winning in the future.  Bringing in Britton, does not accomplish the latter, but clearly reduces your chances in the present game.  It reduces your chances in a few ways, first, the closer will not be in as good a mental and even physical spot if he has to come into the 9th inning after it has started.  He has to loosen up just in case, but does have to start to throw (not just stretch).  If he has the 9th from the start, he is preparing and timing his throwing to coincide with the end of the bottom of the 8th.  Second, with the new rule, this makes even less sense, as the reliever must face at least 3 batters so the game could be a lot closer if you feel the need to go to your reliever.  I don't believe the closer will be as sharp being in limbo.  I know that this may be opinion and I usually need some facts to back this up, but the new rule is, well, new and I am not sure if there are specific stats about not starting the 9th for a closer and what their OPS against is compared to starting the 9th?  It is probably somewhere, but I don't have it.  At the end of the day, if Britton is ready to pitch the 9th, don't screw around with Holder, just bring in Britton and close out the game.  Yes, Holder could have pitched a perfect 9th, but Britton still stretched and had to do some throwing so it isn't like he had a full day rest (remember I am a fan of giving a guy a full day off with no actvility as that is a true day off.)  Finally, there is a chance that Britton is not needed the next game in a Yankee blow out or a loss where he isn't needed.  In this case, we had a day off so even more reason to close out the win!

I want to go back to the loss against the team that is our largest competition in our division (TB).  The Yankees were up 3-0 going into the bottom of the 7th inning.  Paxton was pitching well but I would have taken him out and locked in those 6 good innings and built off of that.  He had 81 pitches and I believe the pitchers are still not up to full strength; especially Paxton who is 3-4 MPH under his norm.  8 pitches later, including an 0-2 pitch hit for a 2 run HR, the score was tied and we had one out.  We end up losing the game because of this decision and some continued awful defense by Sanchez.  He allowed another ball to not be blocked that probably should be and with the runner on 3rd base, I believe Britton is reluctant to throw his heavy sinker because a PB or WP is likely.  

While on Sanchez, he has had numerous WP's that should have been blocked and already a few passed balls.  His defense is worse and this idea of getting down on one knee was a bad one; it didn't make sense to me when I heard about it and the outcome has been terrible so far.  Further, his hitting has been horrible.  He did hit a HR yesterday after having a really good AB the previous day that ended with a bullet for an out, but he is still struggling mightily.  Maybe he is coming out but his overall numbers are a .454 OPS hitting .104 with 25 K's in 48 AB's

Frazier had a great game last night, coming across and making a decent running catch in RF and going 3-4 with a HR and a double!  It would be great if he can contribute

Gardner is still a step slower and another ball yesterday fell in that he would have had in the past.  His offense has also been weak.  Hitting .171, but 3 HR's has his OPS at .676 (not good but not terrible)

DJ is now hitting .431 and while he doesn't have much power or walk a lot, his OPS is still at 1.048.  He needs to hit .330 because of the lack of power and walks.  His defense has been a little shakier than normal, but he is such a great guy to have on the team in so many ways...and fun to watch.

With Stanton out, this may be a big time for Ford to show that last year was not a fluke.  He is lefty which is helpful, although last year in only 33 AB's against southpaws he had more HR's than he did against righties 100+ AB's against righties.  His OPS was 1.389 against lefties and .766 against righties.  While not statistically valid, he is 0-5 against lefties this year and has a .734 OPS against righties in only 22 AB's.  If I had my choice, I would rather him be awful against lefties and a .800+ OPS against righties; our team is so right dominant.

The final comment is about Torres.  I feel comfortable he will turn it around, but he is struggling badly (.509 OPS).  He was up in a big spot with the bases loaded and 2 outs and struck out on 3 pitches.  His defense won't be as good/steady as Didi's, but after hitting really well for his two years, I am comfortable he will hit much better; 50 OPS points better than Didi is a good number to look at.  Right now he is 265 OPS points behind Didi, so it will be interesting to watch.



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