I am getting asked what I think of this game against the Red
Sox for the right to play Tampa in a 5 game series.
First, I like the playoff system the way it is. If after 162 games you have not been able to
distinguish yourself as the leader of the division, then it is fair that you do
not make the playoffs. However, by
allowing teams to get in for the wild card you make it a large penalty of
having to play an elimination game first and thus also rewarding the division
winners with the “bye.” It also keeps
some teams/fans interested later in the season which is good. This is the way a playoff system should work
as it also does not allow too many teams into the playoffs.
As for the game, as I stated before, this team can’t surprise
me. We could lay an egg, we could lose
with terrible defense, we could lose with terrible base running or an odd
managerial move. Hey, Cole could stink as
well. We also could pitch well, hit well
and blow them out. Nothing would surprise
me.
If I had to make a prediction based on an average outcome, I
would say the Yankees win 5-3, but I am not betting on this game, mostly because
of our inconsistent offense. Cole is a
better pitcher than Eovaldi, but Nathan is solid. I like the Yankees bullpen and honestly like the
Yankees offense better, but they have simply not played up to their expected
output. The Yankees have the worst
offense of any team in the AL and are actually worse than every team offensively
(based on runs scored) except wild card STL.
The other AL playoff teams averaged 836 runs and the Yankees scored
711. The NL playoff teams with the
pitcher hitting score more than the Yankees and the 5 teams averaged 774 runs
(STL scored 706 as the only team worse than the Yanks). Isn’t that a little shocking that the offense
is so poor?
A few quick comments:
1.
While Higgy isn’t very good all around, I am
glad he is starting over Sanchez. The
best-case scenario is that Higgy catches the entire game.
2.
With DJ and Voit out, I would go with our
defensive team and play Velazquez at SS and have Gio play 3rd. Being banged up after that amazing catch will
make it even harder for him to play SS at the level we need him to. Further, I think we are so much better
defensively with Gio at 3rd and Velazquez at SS. If you need to pinch-hit you can in a key
spot. I doubt the Yankees do that, but I
don’t want to give away any runs. Odor
has an OPS of .665 (.625 against righties) and is 1-14 over the last month. Velazquez is not a good offensive player with
a .594 OPS (but .651 against righties) and is 2-8 in the last month. Offensively, they are close against righties
but more importantly, the defense would be much better at 3rd and SS
and one play might tilt the scale.
Of course, Odor could hit a HR and he does have experience, but I would rather
give Cole our best defense and I would bet that having much better defense at
SS and 3rd is a larger difference than the bat against a righty.
3.
Having Loaisiga back is huge for us and honestly, he is the guy I trust most in the bullpen and he is just coming back from his
injury. But, Chapman, Holmes and Green
are quality arms. King and Severino give
us more help and I wouldn’t have any issue trusting Severino. German is a solid guy as well, but if he is
in that means something went wrong with Cole.
Peralta has been pretty good from the left side and is a little better
against lefties and Luetge has been our best guy against lefties (.520 OPS).
4.
In these games I believe we have a 26 man
roster. I have seen people say we should
have 13 and 13 pitchers/players. I don’t
think we need 13 pitchers, especially as you can’t mix and match as well as you
used to. So I am in favor of specialists
as players in this one game. I would bring
up Florial to get some speed and defense if needed. I would also look for specialists such as a
great bunter or more speed or defense.
But, we surely don’t need 13 pitchers for one game
I hope I get to write more!
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