Saturday, October 29, 2011

The Genius Maker 10-29-11

Let’s have a little fun with CC opt out.  He has a 4 year deal worth $92 million ($23/year) that he can stay and accept.  I believe the question is what does as an excellent 31 year old pitcher who is very overweight, has logged 2364 innings and struggled the 2nd half of last year and in the postseason -Career 4.81 ERA) worth if he went on the open market? 

Let’s compare some pitchers.  Beckett, who is 31 has logged only 1721 inning, 643 less (about 3 years).  He is getting $15.75 mil a year for the next 3 years.

Cliff Lee got 5 years at the age of 31 and had only 1409 innings before signing a 5 year 120 mil deal. ($24/year).  He also received a $27.5 mil option if he pitches 200 in 2015 or 400 in 2014/15 combined.  There is a $12.5 buy out also. 

The Lee is the most recent deal and gives perspective, but what CC has is not far off and while CC is a horse and hasn’t had the down turns Lee (or even Beckett) has had, CC hasn’t had the dominance either.  Postseason CC has an ERA about 2 runs higher also…and while he is not a choker, his stuff is not as dominant.  He throws harder than Lee obviously, but Lee has better control and movement.

The Yankee will be a much worse team without CC.  This is without question, but the Yanks need to be careful with all the other bad contracts they have.  ARod’s is looking like it may be bad for 5 years right now, Tex’s isn’t looking too good either.  Jeter’s contract is also a bad value one as well.  Adding another one that ends up bad will tie the Yankees hands.  CC has thrown a ton of innings and with his weight (which will be harder to control) could start getting knee issues let alone mileage issues on the arm.  In terms of mileage some guys can throw a lot and perhaps CC won’t have any problems?  Hard to predict the exact issues but the Yanks have to think about who would give CC a lot of money?

CC loves NY and the Yankees and when he originally put in the opt out it was setup only to give CC an out if he didn’t like NY.  I think he should stay for the money which is in line with what he gets and the Yanks could “help him” with 2 one year options based on whether he pitches 200 innings the previous year.  The salary should be the same.  This way if CC is still effective he gets a 5th and possibly 6th year.  The dollar amounts should be remain in my opinion, but I hope the Yankees don’t bid against themselves again as there is risk here.

I know people say CC needs to take advantage of the situation, but it would be nice if people also had some loyalty in the process.  Jeter took some hits in my eyes the way he handled his negotiations and tried to make the Yankee look like the bad guys.  Jeter is an icon, but he surely is not worth what he is getting on the field (perhaps off the field maybe – but my feeling is that a winning team gets the fans to spend more)

I usually don’t ask for people to respond, but feel free to post a comment or email me.

Next up is Swisher...This is interesting because Beltran is available.   I think Beltran would play better than Swisher and has less holes in his swing to perform against the better pitching (in the postseason), but re signing Swish is not a bad move as he could be traded as he has some value at the price range (even if we chipped in a little money.  I don;t think it is bad to let him go either, but you need to have Beltran signed.  We really don't have any minor leaguers who we have seen who could take over.  Dickerson is mediocre and is more of a reserve. 


  1. I agree re CC. Multi-yearcontracts are risky for the team. That goes double for pitchers. Just look at pitchers on the current Yanks roster who were disappointments: Burnett, Igawa, Soriano, Feliciano.

    Rumor is that the Yanks have offered to extend CC's contract 2 more years. I think that's a big mistake. It increases the risk a lot.

    Frankly, the way I'd like the see the Yanks handle CC and other players in his position is to offer whatever sweetener they're willing to do provided the player signs with them and doesn't opt out. But, they should tell that player that if he opts out, they will not offer him a contract. And, then stick to that promise. I don't think CC can better the Yanks offer if the Yanks aren't in the bidding.

    The trick would be to convince the player that the Yanks really mean it when they say they won't negotiate if he opts out. Chances are CC and his agent wouldn't believe them. I think they'd have to let CC walk in order for their threat to be convincing the next time this situation comes up.

  2. Now that CC is signed, what's next? Mostly starting pitching. What I'd like to see the team do is
    1. Don't trade Montero
    2. Sign Yu Darvish, whatever it costs.
    3. Get Burnett out of the starting rotation
    4. Give as many young guys a chance to show what they can do, even Joba.
    5. Sign Garcia and Colon as backup possibilities (although I doubt that they Yanks will catch lightning in a bottle twice.)
    6. Sign several more apparently washed up stars to minor league contracts -- guys who might be 2012's equivalent of Garcia and Colon.