I didn’t get a chance to watch too much of the ceremony, but it was nice to see the team mob Matsui and also the way the fans gave him a standing ovation when he came to the plate. Andy Pettitte was classy as he stepped off the mound to allow Matsui to tip his hat. Then, Matsui went out and helped us again, going 0-5!
I thought Andy and Posada pitched/called a great game. They mixed up pitches extremely well and many times the Angels were looking for different pitches in different locations. Andy also didn’t leave too many pitches over the heart of the plate. Extremely well done by Andy and I have to say I am pleasantly surprised!
The Yankees really should have blown this game wide open with 22 guys on base, but with a 7-1 lead one would think the game was in the bag. After Robertson gave the Angels some hope, Girardi didn’t mess around and went right to The Genius Maker who didn’t disappoint. While his velocity was still low, his movement was MUCH better and he looked good. That was very encouraging because it appears that nobody is ready to take over for Rivera yet.
BTW, a few comments from some of you I will answer. I really like Nick Johnson in the 2 hole. Many people don’t like him clogging up the bases, but he isn’t horribly slow and you have to figure 70+ times the guys behind him will be hitting homers so he will be trotting around the bases.
Some have taken me to task about Granderson against lefties, but in the very small sample this year, he has a .664 OPS, which is 2 points behind Gardner’s .666. Of course, this is such a small sample, but I think Gardner will have a better OPS against lefties than Granderson after the year is over. That says something considering Gardner is not setting the world on fire right now, although he was robbed by a fantastic play by Aybar at SS with the bases loaded. The infield was in and Aybar dived (I still think this should be dove) to his right fully extended and snared the one hop and then threw home for a force out. I think we will see Thames bat against lefties every time, but the platoon partner will go back and forth between Granderson and Gardner unless one is a lot better. Swisher tends to be streaky so I think they will ride his hot runs and use Winn when he cools, but Swish is the clear starter and will only get a blow here and there. Swisher is a little better from the right side (.851-.801) over the last 3 years and Winn is identical so I would expect rest would come against a righty pitcher if it can be planned.
Don’t forget to check periodically the archives and specifically the predictions of the players. I have a bunch completed and will load them over the next week.
5-2!
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Sunday, April 11, 2010
The Genius Maker #6
4-2 after two road series' against power house teams in the AL; that is a very encouraging start!
On Saturday CC was very good. He threw a lot of pitches, but I think his pitch count was high because TB did a good job of not swinging at some close pitches. CC was nibbling a little as well. Either way, a very good game all around as the offense came to play also.
In the series deciding game on Sunday, there was a lot to talk about (at least in my view).
Jeter has been first pitch swinging almost every time. He will need to mix it up and make an adjustment because he has been making fast outs and this is against the philosophy of what the Yankees do well.
While I am on Jeter a little bit, the first inning was a classing example of one of the weaknesses Jeter has in the field and that is tagging runners out. the Yanks correctly pitched out on BJ Upton and the throw from Posada was release quickly, but a little on the SS side of the bag where Jeter took a long time to swing the tag around and tagged BJ on the shin rather than the foot. Replays showed it was a bang bang play, but a quicker and better tag would have given us the out call without question. This cost us an extra run and obviously more work for Burnett. AJ did settle down and pitch very well the rest of the way.
I am tired of every ball hit to the OF being "driven" according to Michael Kay. Mike, a little tip, when the ball is off the end of the bat or off the handle it is most certainly not "driven."
4th inning with the Yanks trailing 2-1, ARod led off with a double. Cano came up and he has shown better plan on how to handle early swings in the count. However, he did a poor job of trying to pull the ball as he flew out to LF on a pitch he should have been turning on. Just for clarity, I don't want many of the Yankees hitters giving themselves up just to move runners along, but it is OK to look for a pitch to pull and Cano missed an opportunity. After that Posada had a great AB to work a walk. He was really locked in laying off close pitches and working the walk. Unfortunately, Granderson and Swisher didn't get it done.
Nick Johnson has lined out about 4 times; his hits will come.
Shields was pitching well for TB, but most of the Yankees were working the pitch count very well on Shields and he entered the 6th inning at almost 100 pitches. After he got ARod out I was surprised that Choate didn't come in to face Cano. After Cano doubled though, I would not have brought in Choate (a true lefty specialist) to face the switch hitting Posada. Fortunately for us Posada took advantage of the mismatch and homered. Not sure what their coach (Maddon) was thinking? Either way, the Yanks plan of wearing down the starting pitcher and then creaming the bullpen worked great today.
Granderson made a bunch of nice plays in the field. the best was coming in on a line drive and doubling off Burrell at first base. BTW, him going in a little hard after Texiera was not that big a deal. Not nearly as big a deal as the stupid comments made by Joe West. I wonder what fine Girardi would have if he said that West's crew was embarrassing and pathetic?
BTW, Granderson also made a good baserunning play by getting to 3rd which allowed him to score on a wild pitch with 2 outs.
Man, what a silly dome where an out turns into a hit. This is a professional game for crying out loud. Can you imagine if that was a playoff game?
After that crazy play it was 1st and 2nd with 2 outs and Burnett fell behind Pena 3-0. Burnett then walked Pena not giving in, BUT moving the tying run to 2nd base and the go ahead run to 1st base. This was the most interesting strategic part of the game to me for a variety of reasons. First, do you go after Pena or do you really put at risk a big inning? At the time, I was saying to pitch carefully with a weaker hitter in Upton on deck, but man it is risky. Then, after the walk I think many people would have said that Burnett should have come out of the game as it looked like he was frazzled after the pop up. This I did not believe and fortunately neither did Girardi as Burnett got Upton out and the end of the key threat in the game. I really believe there were a lot of people who would have Monday morning QB'd that one and said "it was obvious Burnett was flustered and he should have come out." Good job by Girardi and Burnett to get the job done.
Cano stroked a ball down the LF line very well in the 7th inning, but Crawford made an excellent running catch. Gardner, Ellsbury and Crawford are probably the only LF'rs who could have made that catch as it took some raw speed.
Job's velocity was back down to 93 as he seemed to be throwing a little more with his arm than his body to me. Posada worked in his curve twice and it was outstanding at both times.
The only little concern I have is that Rivera looked very weak again to me. Very little movement and his velocity was 89-91. It is expected to see a slow down from him, but after last years amazing year, I want to hope he can give us another really good year. So far, he has not looked to me.
Overall, 4-2 is a very good start!
On Saturday CC was very good. He threw a lot of pitches, but I think his pitch count was high because TB did a good job of not swinging at some close pitches. CC was nibbling a little as well. Either way, a very good game all around as the offense came to play also.
In the series deciding game on Sunday, there was a lot to talk about (at least in my view).
Jeter has been first pitch swinging almost every time. He will need to mix it up and make an adjustment because he has been making fast outs and this is against the philosophy of what the Yankees do well.
While I am on Jeter a little bit, the first inning was a classing example of one of the weaknesses Jeter has in the field and that is tagging runners out. the Yanks correctly pitched out on BJ Upton and the throw from Posada was release quickly, but a little on the SS side of the bag where Jeter took a long time to swing the tag around and tagged BJ on the shin rather than the foot. Replays showed it was a bang bang play, but a quicker and better tag would have given us the out call without question. This cost us an extra run and obviously more work for Burnett. AJ did settle down and pitch very well the rest of the way.
I am tired of every ball hit to the OF being "driven" according to Michael Kay. Mike, a little tip, when the ball is off the end of the bat or off the handle it is most certainly not "driven."
4th inning with the Yanks trailing 2-1, ARod led off with a double. Cano came up and he has shown better plan on how to handle early swings in the count. However, he did a poor job of trying to pull the ball as he flew out to LF on a pitch he should have been turning on. Just for clarity, I don't want many of the Yankees hitters giving themselves up just to move runners along, but it is OK to look for a pitch to pull and Cano missed an opportunity. After that Posada had a great AB to work a walk. He was really locked in laying off close pitches and working the walk. Unfortunately, Granderson and Swisher didn't get it done.
Nick Johnson has lined out about 4 times; his hits will come.
Shields was pitching well for TB, but most of the Yankees were working the pitch count very well on Shields and he entered the 6th inning at almost 100 pitches. After he got ARod out I was surprised that Choate didn't come in to face Cano. After Cano doubled though, I would not have brought in Choate (a true lefty specialist) to face the switch hitting Posada. Fortunately for us Posada took advantage of the mismatch and homered. Not sure what their coach (Maddon) was thinking? Either way, the Yanks plan of wearing down the starting pitcher and then creaming the bullpen worked great today.
Granderson made a bunch of nice plays in the field. the best was coming in on a line drive and doubling off Burrell at first base. BTW, him going in a little hard after Texiera was not that big a deal. Not nearly as big a deal as the stupid comments made by Joe West. I wonder what fine Girardi would have if he said that West's crew was embarrassing and pathetic?
BTW, Granderson also made a good baserunning play by getting to 3rd which allowed him to score on a wild pitch with 2 outs.
Man, what a silly dome where an out turns into a hit. This is a professional game for crying out loud. Can you imagine if that was a playoff game?
After that crazy play it was 1st and 2nd with 2 outs and Burnett fell behind Pena 3-0. Burnett then walked Pena not giving in, BUT moving the tying run to 2nd base and the go ahead run to 1st base. This was the most interesting strategic part of the game to me for a variety of reasons. First, do you go after Pena or do you really put at risk a big inning? At the time, I was saying to pitch carefully with a weaker hitter in Upton on deck, but man it is risky. Then, after the walk I think many people would have said that Burnett should have come out of the game as it looked like he was frazzled after the pop up. This I did not believe and fortunately neither did Girardi as Burnett got Upton out and the end of the key threat in the game. I really believe there were a lot of people who would have Monday morning QB'd that one and said "it was obvious Burnett was flustered and he should have come out." Good job by Girardi and Burnett to get the job done.
Cano stroked a ball down the LF line very well in the 7th inning, but Crawford made an excellent running catch. Gardner, Ellsbury and Crawford are probably the only LF'rs who could have made that catch as it took some raw speed.
Job's velocity was back down to 93 as he seemed to be throwing a little more with his arm than his body to me. Posada worked in his curve twice and it was outstanding at both times.
The only little concern I have is that Rivera looked very weak again to me. Very little movement and his velocity was 89-91. It is expected to see a slow down from him, but after last years amazing year, I want to hope he can give us another really good year. So far, he has not looked to me.
Overall, 4-2 is a very good start!
Saturday, April 10, 2010
The Genius Maker #5
I am not sure why the managers are allowing their starting pitchers to throw 100+ pitches on their first outing? In theme, I also don’t know why Girardi sent Vasquez out on the mound to start the 6th inning after not having good command all day and fortunately getting through the 5th inning unscathed after a terrible 4th inning. His control was off and he had little movement of speed on his fastball (which was getting hammered). I would have ended his night on a positive note after 5 innings. After a leadoff double in the 6th, I would have most certainly ended it, but instead Girardi kept Javy out there and after allowing a homer, the game for Vasquez and the Yankees was over.
Not much of note that stood out in the game, other than Thames missed a fly ball double that Gardner would have easily caught (that is at least 2 balls this week that were sure catches) and Granderson is off to a bad start against lefties. Now I know it is very early and Texiera is 0-16, but track record shows Tex will be OK and Granderson probably will not be (against lefties).
All is fine with this team, although I would have been much happier with Javy looking a little sharper. His track record in the AL is just OK, but after last year’s NL dominance the hope was he learned a lot. So far his grade is a D/D-. Also, Posada’s throws have not had much on them to 2nd base.
Not much of note that stood out in the game, other than Thames missed a fly ball double that Gardner would have easily caught (that is at least 2 balls this week that were sure catches) and Granderson is off to a bad start against lefties. Now I know it is very early and Texiera is 0-16, but track record shows Tex will be OK and Granderson probably will not be (against lefties).
All is fine with this team, although I would have been much happier with Javy looking a little sharper. His track record in the AL is just OK, but after last year’s NL dominance the hope was he learned a lot. So far his grade is a D/D-. Also, Posada’s throws have not had much on them to 2nd base.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
The Genius Maker #4
Very solid game! Lackey pitched very well and so did Pettitte. Andy was all around the strike zone and pitched extremely well. When he missed it was very close.
I thought Posada called a very good game, but I was upset when they gave Ortiz the fastball and he knocked in their run. It was not a good time to be cute.
I think we saw Curtis Granderson’s ability today. Key spot a lefty (not a great one) comes in and makes him look foolish and then when a good righty is on the mound he takes him deep for a game winning extra inning homer! When I criticize Granderson against lefties, understand that I liked getting him and think he is great player against righties, but one must understand that he is a bad hitter against lefties and he should bunt more often against them. They also must be willing to pinch hit in a key spot very late in the game.
Chan Ho Park pitched excellent and Girardi stayed with the hot hand even after 2 very good innings. I was OK with him starting the 3rd inning, but I would have taken him out after the Beltre fly out. If I remember from my review of the playoffs he was a little better against righties and with Drew coming up and Beltre hit the ball hard, I would have made a move. Girardi stuck with him and he allowed a single to Drew. Now with Cameron up I most certainly would have made a move as I thought he was pushing it with Park, but he got away with a bad pitch and Cameron almost got a cheap green monster double, but instead flew out. Girardi stuck with Park again and Scutaro hit one on the screws but right at Gardner. It worked so maybe I would have been wrong to take out park, but I don’t understand having him finish his 3rd inning of work? Either way, I did like staying with him for the full 2 at least as he was throwing very well showing a good fastball, slider and breaking ball.
I really like our defensive OF when we have a lead. There is some serious speed out there when Winn is in RF.
The Genius Maker was not sharp at all. In fact, he had very little movement on most of his pitches, but he did get through the inning (thanks to Pedroia for swinging at ball 4). 2 saves already and we now have a one game lead over Boston!
I thought Posada called a very good game, but I was upset when they gave Ortiz the fastball and he knocked in their run. It was not a good time to be cute.
I think we saw Curtis Granderson’s ability today. Key spot a lefty (not a great one) comes in and makes him look foolish and then when a good righty is on the mound he takes him deep for a game winning extra inning homer! When I criticize Granderson against lefties, understand that I liked getting him and think he is great player against righties, but one must understand that he is a bad hitter against lefties and he should bunt more often against them. They also must be willing to pinch hit in a key spot very late in the game.
Chan Ho Park pitched excellent and Girardi stayed with the hot hand even after 2 very good innings. I was OK with him starting the 3rd inning, but I would have taken him out after the Beltre fly out. If I remember from my review of the playoffs he was a little better against righties and with Drew coming up and Beltre hit the ball hard, I would have made a move. Girardi stuck with him and he allowed a single to Drew. Now with Cameron up I most certainly would have made a move as I thought he was pushing it with Park, but he got away with a bad pitch and Cameron almost got a cheap green monster double, but instead flew out. Girardi stuck with Park again and Scutaro hit one on the screws but right at Gardner. It worked so maybe I would have been wrong to take out park, but I don’t understand having him finish his 3rd inning of work? Either way, I did like staying with him for the full 2 at least as he was throwing very well showing a good fastball, slider and breaking ball.
I really like our defensive OF when we have a lead. There is some serious speed out there when Winn is in RF.
The Genius Maker was not sharp at all. In fact, he had very little movement on most of his pitches, but he did get through the inning (thanks to Pedroia for swinging at ball 4). 2 saves already and we now have a one game lead over Boston!
The Genius Maker #3
First play of the game, Ellsbury hits a blooper that drops in between Jeter and Thames that would have been easily caught by Gardner. Ellsbury then steals 2nd and goes to 3rd on a bad throw by Posada. He ends up scoring…Gardner would have stopped it. For contrast, later in the game, Tex broke his bat and Ellsbury made the catch; end of rally.
Burnett made good pitches to Victor Martinez who fouled off a good fastball and did not swing at two good breaking balls to work a walk (he is a solid hitter). Martinez continued his excellent AB’s with a 2 run homer later and another hit. His defense is very bad, but he can hit.
Granderson had a bad AB against Lester (a lefty) with bases juiced and one out when he struck out waving at two bad pitches. Granderson did get a hit later in the game against a lefty which led to a great AB by ARod. Twice Lester beat ARod on fastballs inside and then ARod made the adjustment and doubled to tie up the game.
I still think Granderson will end up being platooned and Gardner will probably be a better hitter against lefties than Granderson.
Every reader of this blog knows I am a huge Posada fan, but I think when he hit into a DP it had be the slowest double play in history; I can’t believe they turned 2 on such a slow grounder to SS.
I think Boston swung the bats very well because Burnett pitched well and the Red Sox swung at good pitches and showed good control on the bad ones.
Great game by Ace! Aceves put up 2 perfect innings. I keep saying it but I am a big fan of his; he is a rare crafty righty.
Nick Johnson is an on base machine!
In the 8th Girardi did the right thing starting Robertson, although he did not get the job done. He then did a good job going to Marte and then it was great to see Joba with 2 k’s and hitting 96. When he can get up to 97 consistently I will be very happy, but he had a very good breaking ball showing great downward movement on his slider against Drew.
Cano’s solo homer was a big insurance run!
And we have a sighting! The Genius Maker comes in and closes out the game. I thought Scutaro was out on strikes and the ump blew the call, but Rivera still got the job done. Great to see his first save of the year.
Burnett made good pitches to Victor Martinez who fouled off a good fastball and did not swing at two good breaking balls to work a walk (he is a solid hitter). Martinez continued his excellent AB’s with a 2 run homer later and another hit. His defense is very bad, but he can hit.
Granderson had a bad AB against Lester (a lefty) with bases juiced and one out when he struck out waving at two bad pitches. Granderson did get a hit later in the game against a lefty which led to a great AB by ARod. Twice Lester beat ARod on fastballs inside and then ARod made the adjustment and doubled to tie up the game.
I still think Granderson will end up being platooned and Gardner will probably be a better hitter against lefties than Granderson.
Every reader of this blog knows I am a huge Posada fan, but I think when he hit into a DP it had be the slowest double play in history; I can’t believe they turned 2 on such a slow grounder to SS.
I think Boston swung the bats very well because Burnett pitched well and the Red Sox swung at good pitches and showed good control on the bad ones.
Great game by Ace! Aceves put up 2 perfect innings. I keep saying it but I am a big fan of his; he is a rare crafty righty.
Nick Johnson is an on base machine!
In the 8th Girardi did the right thing starting Robertson, although he did not get the job done. He then did a good job going to Marte and then it was great to see Joba with 2 k’s and hitting 96. When he can get up to 97 consistently I will be very happy, but he had a very good breaking ball showing great downward movement on his slider against Drew.
Cano’s solo homer was a big insurance run!
And we have a sighting! The Genius Maker comes in and closes out the game. I thought Scutaro was out on strikes and the ump blew the call, but Rivera still got the job done. Great to see his first save of the year.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
The Genius Maker Blog #2
Game 1 is in the books and the outcome was not what we hoped. Things looked promising after Posada and Granderson hit back to back homers and the Yanks ended up with a 5-1 lead going into the bottom of the 5th.
CC struggled with his command all night and could not work his changeup effectively. In the bottom of the 5th he struggled, but got out of the inning with only his 2nd run allowed and I felt, in game 1 of the year, I would have taken him out. I believe is pitch total was just about 90 and I would have turned it over to a very deep and rested bullpen. As it turned out, Joe left him out there to start the 6th and after walking Pedrioa I would have most certainly taken him out. If I had targeted a number of pitches at the start of the game 90 would have been my number. I was very surprised CC stayed in to allow another double and triple after the walk and also to throw 104 pitches in game 1 of the year. You can ride your horse, but why push it in game 1?
Now the outcome of the game may not have changed as the bullpen was ineffective at almost every turn, but perhaps things would have been different if Robertson started the inning?
A couple of other notes:
• Posada did a poor job defensively which contributed to the go ahead run. He was a hitting star though.
• I like having 2 lefties out of the pen. I can’t say I know how good Boone Logan is, but the threat can be important.
• Boston used Showenweis (Kind of like their Boone Logan as he was the last guy to make their team) against Granderson with 2 guys on and 2 outs and Granderson struck out. Granderson did work out a walk against Okajima later, but did not look good in doing so (0-1 with a walk against lefties)
• Gardner had an errant throw, but had a very good game offensively while stealing home. Man, he is blazing
• Chan Ho Park was the big goat though as he allowed 3 hits, including the bog blow the 2 run HR to Pedroia. I thought the ump missed a breaking ball to Dustin which made him come in with a fastball that was deposited over the fence, but either way a poor job.
• Marte didn’t do the job either (with some help from Posada). Marte is really a key guy for us in the pen. I hope his shoulder holds up.
• Nick Johnson will fit in perfectly into this team. He hit the ball well twice (for outs) and worked 2 walks.
It is only game 1 and doesn’t mean too much, but when you are up 5-1 with your best pitcher on the mound and a rested bullpen, you should win the game!
CC struggled with his command all night and could not work his changeup effectively. In the bottom of the 5th he struggled, but got out of the inning with only his 2nd run allowed and I felt, in game 1 of the year, I would have taken him out. I believe is pitch total was just about 90 and I would have turned it over to a very deep and rested bullpen. As it turned out, Joe left him out there to start the 6th and after walking Pedrioa I would have most certainly taken him out. If I had targeted a number of pitches at the start of the game 90 would have been my number. I was very surprised CC stayed in to allow another double and triple after the walk and also to throw 104 pitches in game 1 of the year. You can ride your horse, but why push it in game 1?
Now the outcome of the game may not have changed as the bullpen was ineffective at almost every turn, but perhaps things would have been different if Robertson started the inning?
A couple of other notes:
• Posada did a poor job defensively which contributed to the go ahead run. He was a hitting star though.
• I like having 2 lefties out of the pen. I can’t say I know how good Boone Logan is, but the threat can be important.
• Boston used Showenweis (Kind of like their Boone Logan as he was the last guy to make their team) against Granderson with 2 guys on and 2 outs and Granderson struck out. Granderson did work out a walk against Okajima later, but did not look good in doing so (0-1 with a walk against lefties)
• Gardner had an errant throw, but had a very good game offensively while stealing home. Man, he is blazing
• Chan Ho Park was the big goat though as he allowed 3 hits, including the bog blow the 2 run HR to Pedroia. I thought the ump missed a breaking ball to Dustin which made him come in with a fastball that was deposited over the fence, but either way a poor job.
• Marte didn’t do the job either (with some help from Posada). Marte is really a key guy for us in the pen. I hope his shoulder holds up.
• Nick Johnson will fit in perfectly into this team. He hit the ball well twice (for outs) and worked 2 walks.
It is only game 1 and doesn’t mean too much, but when you are up 5-1 with your best pitcher on the mound and a rested bullpen, you should win the game!
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Pre Game 1 Regular Season
A lot of ground to cover and I still owe everyone my year in review predictions (last year). For this year, I will make some but I am a little behind.
I will look forward first so that I can get these in before game 1. Here are some of the questions I have received:
1) Why didn’t the Yankees just re-sign Matsui and Damon
I covered this a few times before, but my belief was I would have resigned Matsui for the 5-6 mil it would have cost because he would have paid for himself in marketing to Japan. That being said, I think the Yankees did a terrific job in getting Nick Johnson once the Yankees made the mistake of letting Matsui go. I would not be surprised if NJ had a better OPS than Matsui and NJ might even be healthier, but dollar wise I think Matsui was less expensive. Overall, I am not too concerned though.
As for Damon, I also have chronicled that I think Gardner’s overall value is on par with Damon’s when you take Gardner’s extra bases with SB’s and his stellar defense into account. But, the truth is Granderson is replacing Damon and outside of me being one of the only people who seems to think Granderson should be platooned and will not be able to play against lefties, I would rather Granderson on my team instead of Damon.
2) Who should play CF?
I would rather play Gardner is CF and Granderson in LF. However, I am not strong in my opinion. Granderson will end up being platooned after awhile so I believe Gardner will end up in CF 20% of the time anyway (assuming Granderson does play against lefties he has a good matchup against). Maybe they don’t want to move Granderson back and forth but don’t mid if Gardner does? I just think Gardner’s elite speed is better in CF, but Granderson is no slouch so it is not worth losing sleep over.
3) Can Gardner really be our starting LF?
Well, his weak offense does not look as good in CF, but again I am hopeful he can slightly improve on his .724 OPS (not sure I would predict it though) and with his defense he saves a lot of runs. If you figure he can save 3 bases a week in CF he should be able to save 2 bases a week in LF and along with his SB’s that would make his OPS the equivalent of around .825 compared to an average defensive LF.
4) Who will win the right handed hitting platoon role and will this be good?
Marcus Thames has won the job. He has very good power and should have a solid OPS against lefties, but his defense is very poor. I would expect him to either start against tough lefties or pinch hit at key moments late in the game when we are down. He could also DH if needed against lefties.
5) What did you think of the Bruney trade?
I liked Bruney a little more than most, but I trusted Cashman had someone he liked in the rule 5 draft. Something tells me a guy he thought would be there was not and then the Yanks took Jamie Hoffman. Jamie was an interesting guy as his defense was excellent everywhere, but I guess they felt he can’t hit as the Yanks offered him back to the Dodgers who took him back. Overall, Cashman made a mistake here as Bruney was given away for nothing.
6) What did you think about the Randy Winn signing?
I didn’t really understand this signing. It was only a little over a mil, but with Hoffman already on the roster, we had a good defensive player who doesn’t hit so I didn’t get it. Wynn is not better against lefties so I am not really sure of the fit. Now it is possible that last year was just a down year for him, but at his age down years are not usually an aberration. I don’t expect much from Wynn, but the signing was worse because of Hoffman. Once Hoffman was released I guess Wynn could be used in RF to spell Swisher, possibly play for Gardner or possibly platoon for Granderson, but not a great move IMO.
7) What did you think of the Vazquez trade?
Really liked it! Vazquez is a very good #4 and if he did really learn in Atlanta could be an absolute finding of gold! I expect somewhere in the middle and would hope he could give us an ERA around 4 and hopefully just south of it. I am drinking the Kool-Aid that he did learn something in Atlanta as he did pitch really well. Yes, it was the NL and I am very guarded about that; especially from a guy who never showed that ability in all of his AL years. He won’t duplicate what he did in Atlanta, but I would not be surprised if he was better than he has been in the AL. I also think Boone Logan may be able to support us in the bullpen as I like having 2 lefties in the pen.
8) Who should be our 5th starter?
From the start I felt Hughes would win the job and Joba would be in the pen. The Yankees felt the same way I believe. I like Aceves and think he could start as well, but Hughes will be given a great opportunity and I think he will show good promise this year.
9) Is Joba the setup guy/will he ever start?
Joba is a tough one. I don’t think we will see those 98-100 MPH days anymore. I am saddened about that because he was VERY exciting too watch. I do think he can be a good setup guy, but he better throw 95+ to go along with the great slider. I think his mindset is better suited for a bullpen guy. I know starters are worth a lot more, but I think he settles into the bullpen role and I really hope he is good enough to grab the setup role because we have some good arms out there.
10) Is Chan Ho Park going to help?
This was interesting because the Yankees players said he was very tough to hit. The numbers showed that he was a guy who did very well out of the pen but struggled as a starter. People are saying he is the setup guy, but I am not sold that he is better than Robertson, Ace or Joba for that matter. The good part is those are some pretty good righty arms to go along with Marte is getting the ball to the Genius Maker
My quick Vegas prediction…
The Yanks will win more than 95 games (that is the over under in Vegas) as long as they stay in “normal” health for a major league team
I will look forward first so that I can get these in before game 1. Here are some of the questions I have received:
1) Why didn’t the Yankees just re-sign Matsui and Damon
I covered this a few times before, but my belief was I would have resigned Matsui for the 5-6 mil it would have cost because he would have paid for himself in marketing to Japan. That being said, I think the Yankees did a terrific job in getting Nick Johnson once the Yankees made the mistake of letting Matsui go. I would not be surprised if NJ had a better OPS than Matsui and NJ might even be healthier, but dollar wise I think Matsui was less expensive. Overall, I am not too concerned though.
As for Damon, I also have chronicled that I think Gardner’s overall value is on par with Damon’s when you take Gardner’s extra bases with SB’s and his stellar defense into account. But, the truth is Granderson is replacing Damon and outside of me being one of the only people who seems to think Granderson should be platooned and will not be able to play against lefties, I would rather Granderson on my team instead of Damon.
2) Who should play CF?
I would rather play Gardner is CF and Granderson in LF. However, I am not strong in my opinion. Granderson will end up being platooned after awhile so I believe Gardner will end up in CF 20% of the time anyway (assuming Granderson does play against lefties he has a good matchup against). Maybe they don’t want to move Granderson back and forth but don’t mid if Gardner does? I just think Gardner’s elite speed is better in CF, but Granderson is no slouch so it is not worth losing sleep over.
3) Can Gardner really be our starting LF?
Well, his weak offense does not look as good in CF, but again I am hopeful he can slightly improve on his .724 OPS (not sure I would predict it though) and with his defense he saves a lot of runs. If you figure he can save 3 bases a week in CF he should be able to save 2 bases a week in LF and along with his SB’s that would make his OPS the equivalent of around .825 compared to an average defensive LF.
4) Who will win the right handed hitting platoon role and will this be good?
Marcus Thames has won the job. He has very good power and should have a solid OPS against lefties, but his defense is very poor. I would expect him to either start against tough lefties or pinch hit at key moments late in the game when we are down. He could also DH if needed against lefties.
5) What did you think of the Bruney trade?
I liked Bruney a little more than most, but I trusted Cashman had someone he liked in the rule 5 draft. Something tells me a guy he thought would be there was not and then the Yanks took Jamie Hoffman. Jamie was an interesting guy as his defense was excellent everywhere, but I guess they felt he can’t hit as the Yanks offered him back to the Dodgers who took him back. Overall, Cashman made a mistake here as Bruney was given away for nothing.
6) What did you think about the Randy Winn signing?
I didn’t really understand this signing. It was only a little over a mil, but with Hoffman already on the roster, we had a good defensive player who doesn’t hit so I didn’t get it. Wynn is not better against lefties so I am not really sure of the fit. Now it is possible that last year was just a down year for him, but at his age down years are not usually an aberration. I don’t expect much from Wynn, but the signing was worse because of Hoffman. Once Hoffman was released I guess Wynn could be used in RF to spell Swisher, possibly play for Gardner or possibly platoon for Granderson, but not a great move IMO.
7) What did you think of the Vazquez trade?
Really liked it! Vazquez is a very good #4 and if he did really learn in Atlanta could be an absolute finding of gold! I expect somewhere in the middle and would hope he could give us an ERA around 4 and hopefully just south of it. I am drinking the Kool-Aid that he did learn something in Atlanta as he did pitch really well. Yes, it was the NL and I am very guarded about that; especially from a guy who never showed that ability in all of his AL years. He won’t duplicate what he did in Atlanta, but I would not be surprised if he was better than he has been in the AL. I also think Boone Logan may be able to support us in the bullpen as I like having 2 lefties in the pen.
8) Who should be our 5th starter?
From the start I felt Hughes would win the job and Joba would be in the pen. The Yankees felt the same way I believe. I like Aceves and think he could start as well, but Hughes will be given a great opportunity and I think he will show good promise this year.
9) Is Joba the setup guy/will he ever start?
Joba is a tough one. I don’t think we will see those 98-100 MPH days anymore. I am saddened about that because he was VERY exciting too watch. I do think he can be a good setup guy, but he better throw 95+ to go along with the great slider. I think his mindset is better suited for a bullpen guy. I know starters are worth a lot more, but I think he settles into the bullpen role and I really hope he is good enough to grab the setup role because we have some good arms out there.
10) Is Chan Ho Park going to help?
This was interesting because the Yankees players said he was very tough to hit. The numbers showed that he was a guy who did very well out of the pen but struggled as a starter. People are saying he is the setup guy, but I am not sold that he is better than Robertson, Ace or Joba for that matter. The good part is those are some pretty good righty arms to go along with Marte is getting the ball to the Genius Maker
My quick Vegas prediction…
The Yanks will win more than 95 games (that is the over under in Vegas) as long as they stay in “normal” health for a major league team
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Predictions of Players
2010 predictions – My apologies for not getting this out earlier. If you would like to view this throughout the year it will be tagged as 2010 Predictions in the labels or Predictions of Players and you can find it in the archive section. I will be adding to this as I get them done.
Jorge Posada – Last year Jorge had an OPS of .885, a little above his career OPS of .860. For a catcher that is an outstanding number because of all the bruises you accumulate throughout the year at the most physically demanding position in baseball (spoken like a catcher). Jorge has been one of the best hitting catchers in MLB history. That being said, I would expect father time to wear Jorge down a little and expect a reduction in OPS of somewhere around 40 points. He is still a very productive hitting catcher, but there is a reason why catchers don’t stay behind home plate that long and hit well. Jorge’s defense has slipped as his throwing since his surgery is not as good as his prime (he actually was very good at throwing runners out for most of his career and was much better than Girardi at it). Jorge also calls a very good game. His major weakness is his receiving ability as he is not smooth at catching the ball as he fights it frequently. He blocks balls about average when he moves his feet, but he has been getting lazy of late (Molina was lazy) and because of that his blocking ability is below average. He is also below average at plays at the plate. Overall, he is still an above average catcher because of his excellent offense out of the catcher’s position. At this age, Posada is a similar player to Victor Martinez for Boston.
Mark Texiera – Mark is very consistent and I would expect that to continue for us this year. He had a .948 OPS last year and I would expect an OPS in the same neighborhood, possibly a tick lower (.940), but he could just as easily be a little above. He also is part of the guys who can wear down the pitchers. His defense is really good, but I don’t think it is in the Mattingly/Hernandez area that many talk like it is. He makes plays look a little harder than they are by swinging his arms and over playing it a little (I guess the opposite of Cano), but he is still one of the better defensive 1st basemen in the league. Mark also throws well for a 1st baseman. The only part of his game that is below average is his speed. Who cares, he has locked down our 1st base situation until his contract is up!
Robinson Cano – As many of the loyal readers know, I am a huge fan of Cano’s. When there was talk about Cano being traded I was against it. Last year I put my entire reputation on the line as I predicted an enormous increase of over 100 points in his OPS and he came through with an increase of an amazing 152 points. Cano has some of the quickest wrists in baseball. He also has great hand eye coordination. His biggest issue is his plate discipline and his plan at the plate. This off season this was the training for him and I expect Cano to take his game to an even higher level this year. Cano has a career OPS of .820 and I expect him to go over .900 this year and I would not be surprised if he is right there with ARod and Texiera either. Cano has that much ability; he just needs to mature as a hitter. My prediction will be .910 and if this wasn’t already almost 100 points above his career mark I would probably make it higher. Plate discipline is all he needs! Robbie’s defense is silky smooth and graceful. His hands around the bag are extremely quick and I have mentioned numerous times that we would get more outs at 2nd base if Cano took the throws instead of Jeter; the difference in quickness is dramatic. Cano also turns 2 much faster than Jeter. Robbie finishes off his game with a very strong arm. He runs pretty well, but he is not a great base stealer.
Alex Rodriguez – Arod has been persecuted by the fans and media unfairly and I have been one of the few that was steadfast in stating the lack of being clutch was a bunch of crap. Well, he finally showed up in the postseason and was enormous for us, being the key cog in carrying us to the title! I hope people will use him as an example of the mistake people make when they label people on a small sample size. ARod has hit 30 homers and 100+ RBI’s for the past 12 years. Even last year, while missing 38 games he still hit those numbers. ARod is a fantastic all around player who has excellent base running instincts. His contract makes him a target, but let’s remember that he wanted to play for us and I like that about players (read that Greg Maddux). I think his contract will be an albatross by the end, but hopefully we will have 3 more titles by that time. I am going to say ARod will be right at his career OPS of .965. ARod’s defense is still good even though he was very stiff last year. He is a solid defender with a strong arm; I would expect his defense to be a little better this year.
Nick Johnson DH – As you read in my free agent analysis previously, I thought the Yankees screwed up letting both Matsui and Damon go. My main point was Matsui would pay for himself in Japanese money and he would still be productive. I stated that I was fine with Damon being let go, but I would have kept Matsui and at the time I stated we will regret this decision. That being said, the Yankees reacted very well in signing Nick Johnson. He fits into the wearing out philosophy we have as a team and I expect he will be a big part of us knocking out pitchers early and then creaming their middle relief. I also expect a little more power than he had the last 2 years as he had a combined 13 homers in the last 2 years. I would expect him to hit that total if he gets 500 AB’s. Health is always a concern with Nick and he did have some back stiffness in spring training, but hopefully he will be fine come the regular season. Assuming reasonable health an OPS near his career OPS of .844 seems a good guess. His ability to get on base at above a .400 clip in front of Texiera and ARod will be very valuable in the 2 spot…and yes that is where I would bat him. People have said he is too slow, but you don’t need to run too fast when Texiera and ARod are hitting 80 homers behind you.
Brett Gardner LF – Again, I will be repeating myself in items that I wrote defending my position that Gardner is as valuable as Damon as an overall player (I took a lot of abuse about this). I also want to point out that Gardner is really only replacing Melky and Granderson is replacing Damon, but because the Yankees have decided that Gardner will be playing LF I am using this comparison. I also want to state that I felt Gardner should be in CF and Granderson should be in LF, but it is not that big a deal to me. Defensively, Gardner’s arm is better than Damon’s worst in the league and Gardner will get to about 2 balls that Damon could not reach. Conservatively I will assume that between the arm and the balls Damon could not get to, the difference in bases is 1.75 a week with Gardner. Assuming Damon has an OPS of .820 (a little above his career of .794 and a little below what he did for us last year) and adjusting it to include SB’s to .835 and we assume that Gardner’s OPS will be about the same as last years with a small bump (.724 last year) up to .735 with a SB adjustment to .795. I used 60 SB’s with 15 caught (the CS is a little high but I am trying to be conservative). Once the 1.75 bases a week for defense is added into the equation you can add another 75 points to the OPS which puts Gardner as a more valuable player than Damon overall…or at least close if you don’t like my math. Gardner is not a great ballplayer at 26, but his skills have a lot more value than people account for and defense is one large part of that. He can save a double with his feet and this is the same thing I used to say about Melky in that Melky was just too slow to be a CF’r. Bottom line is that if Gardner can give us an OPS of .735 and steal bases and play good defense this will work great. I expect Gardner to give up some AB’s to Thames or a platoon partner, but I also expect the same from Granderson and I would not be surprised if he will hit lefties better than Granderson, although neither will be a great option. As many of you know, I think Gardner will do the above and be a good part of our team. If he were in CF his lack of traditional OPS would not be seen as big a deal, but in LF where OPS is usually higher people will be a little more critical.
Curtis Granderson CF – Outside of the comments I stated in the write-up about Curtis, I am very happy with his pickup. I don’t see why so many people think he will all of a sudden become a good hitter let alone an average hitter against lefties, but he is a legitimate stud against righties and playing solid defense makes him very valuable and more valuable than Damon IMO. Over the last 3 years Granderson has an OPS against righties of .940 and an OPS against lefties of .570. I am not sure why I would expect much of a change off of that and in fact, I would be fine with that. Add in SB’s of approximately 20 while getting caught at a reasonable 5 times and he should do just fine. His defense is very solid in CF and while many say he has a weak arm, I think his arm is fine for CF or LF. I would still put Gardner in CF to take advantage of his elite speed, but I am not going to get crazy about the decision as Granderson is still an upgrade over Melky.
Nick Swisher RF – The crazy Nick brings some personality to the team, but also is a pretty good fundamental player. He can sacrifice and while is not a great tracker of balls gets a very good jump on balls. His weakness in RF is mostly his arm as it is not strong for a RF. He played CF at times with Chicago to show you that he is not a bad fielder, but he is not a great defender overall either. One of the extra OF’rs that play good defense could be used as a defensive replacement if needed. As an offensive player Swisher is part of our wearing down of pitchers philosophy and this is a good thing. We got about as much as one could expect form Swisher last year as he finished with an OPS that was barely his best at .869. His career OPS of .817 represents a fair number if you were going to make predictions. I would expect an OPS somewhere in the middle at about .840 or so, but just as important is that he will see a lot of pitches and does know how to sac if needed. Expect high K’s and low batting average to go along with 25+ homer power and 90 walks. He is a productive hitter and player overall.
Randy Winn – I was not a fan of this pickup as it just didn’t seem to be in line with our philosophy of getting younger. Winn may have upside compared to last year’s terrible performance, but after the Yanks traded away Bruney for Hoffman (since released) and Hoffman was supposed to be an excellent defender, the deal just didn’t make sense. The Yanks also have a guy like Golston in the minors who should be able to do what Winn does. Now, I could be wrong on Winn as I have not watched him play very much, but from a few pre season AB’s he has a little hitch in his swing and I don’t see a player that will be that helpful. He did have 2 years in a row with an OPS of .795, but then in 2009 at the age of 35 he had the worst OPS he has had in 10 years when he finished with a .671 OPS. That could be an aberration, but becoming a part time player it is hard to see Winn get much more than a .725 OPS. His defense is solid so that has value, but I just don’t the signing…hopefully he won’t be pushed into duty. I would not be surprised if he is released in the 2nd half of the year
Marcus Thames – Thames is in line with what the Yanks need and that is some OF’rs who can hit lefties. This is especially important when we have 2 potential guys who are in need pinch hitters against lefties late in the game. Thames can hit lefties and this is more in line with what I was looking for out instead of the Winn signing. Don’t expect Thames to do too much; he is 33 so the upside is limited and he will strike out a lot and he will not play well defensively. However, if you just let him play against lefties he will be a productive player in the mid .850’s in OPS. This would represent a huge upgrade over Granderson or Gardner against lefties. Thames also is not an auto out against righties, with an OPS of .742 over the last 3 years. Most of his OPS comes from very good power. Over the last 3 years in 843 AB’s he has hit 56 homers. This is roughly 40 homer power in a 600 AB season. This was a smart pickup as one could expect him to be enough of a threat against a lefty specialist or a platoon starter at DH or LF. He also was signed for less than a mil.
Francisco Cervelli – Cervelli played well in limited time last year and as I said before he is at least as good as Molina all around, with upside. Molina threw extremely well and framed pitches well, he also called a decent game, but he was slow with is footwork and lazy in blocking balls. Molina also could not hit at all as he had a putrid OPS of .560 last year. Cervelli did not show any walking ability and also did not show much power, but he did show the ability to make contact and actually hit a weak .298. With some improvement of more playing time I would expect him to increase his .681 OPS to the low .720 range and hopefully he can be better. His plate discipline will have to get better, but he could make a jump. His defense is pretty solid all around so this is an upgrade over Molina.
Ramiro Pena – I like Pena and I stated I liked him better than Hairston last year. Obviously, I am glad Hairston was not kept around. Pena is a very slick defender so he can play any infield position except first and play it well. His best position is at SS and he is a better defender than Jeter. Hard to say if he is better at 3rd or 2nd base than ARod or Cano, but I would guess no to Cano and maybe to ARod. Either way he is a good utility infielder who can give you good AB’s from the left side of the plate when you need a hit. He is not an OPS machine, but his .700 OPS last year was respectable. He also had an OPS of .818 against righties! That is very impressive but also shows you how weak he was against lefties (.274 OPS). Basically he should play against righties to give Jeter and ARod a day off and probably against righties to give Cano a day off as well. He is also 24 so maybe he develops a little more power, although his frame and swing does not lend itself to too much power. Either way, he is a very good utility guy and may be our future at SS?
Pitchers
CC Sabathia – I am a big fan of CC’s. He was the prize a year ago and he will anchor our staff. He is not as dominating as Halladay, but CC is an absolute ace. His ERA of 3.37 last year was in line with what you could expect from him. I would expect and ERA of just under 3.50 from him again and getting his 230 innings we should expect him to win in the same area of wins he had the last few year…about 18 give or take a few. His changeup allows him to get through games when everything else is out of kilter. He also is a good athlete (and hitter) for a huge man who is probably close to 300 pounds.
AJ Burnett – Burnett really has dynamite stuff. Sometimes throwing upper 90’s with sick movement. He also has a plus breaking ball. The issue is he falls apart many times and can’t control that great stuff and teams get big innings off of him. He is one of those guys that you hope one day he could put it all together, but surprisingly has only won more than 13 games once in his career. Last year his ERA was a respectable 4.04, but he was only able to win 13 games and I would like to see him get that ERA below 4. This may not be some crazy prediction, but I think Burnett will do what he has only done once in his career and he will break that 13 barrier again. I am hoping he will give us that around 4 ERA and win 16+ games. He may be maturing as a pitcher…I hope so.
Andy Pettitte – Talk about the guy who seems to be getting better with age. Andy was one of the more surprising stories for me last year. I never predicted him to be so solid and consistent because he seemed like he wanted to retire. He is not 40 years old, but at 37 one would expect to see some more issues with him. However, he has learned to be a lot more than just a cutter pitcher as he throws his breaking ball at 2 different speeds, turns over his fastball and now throws a change once in awhile. His velocity is still around 90 which is enough. He had an ERA of 4.16 last year and a 4.54 the year before. As long as Andy can keep his shoulder healthy, I think he can give us an ERA in that 4.25 range which would be very good with our offense.
Javier Vazquez – Let me first say that I was for this trade. Mostly because I think Gardner will be able to do what Austin Jackson may be able to do. Let me also say that anyone expecting an ERA below 3.00 from him is really wishing. Yes, he was great last year with a 2.87 ERA and yes he might have learned how to be an amazingly craft righty, but in the AL you can’t get away from mistakes as easy. His ERA in the AL has been about 4.50, but I am hopeful that he might have learned something last year and he can take that and better that 4.50 ERA and get it down to a 4.30 or so. He has always been a streaky pitcher so hopefully he will be going well for the postseason.
Phil Hughes – I have received more questions about the Hughes Joba situation than any other (Gardner was close). I was in favor of getting both players ready to be starters last year. However, in the postseason I felt better about Joba in the pen and felt that Hughes was better suited to start. Joba has the mentality of a short reliever and I think Hughes has the makeup and pitches as a starter. Hughes is still only 23 and I believe will pitch very well this year and will be backing CC before within the next year or 2. He will run into some speed bumps, but I am really looking forward to watching him this year.
Mariano Rivera (The Genius Maker) - What can you say about the greatest closer the game has ever seen? Every year you think this is the year you expect to see him be ineffective and over the last 2 regular seasons he has blown only 3 saves while saving 83 games! One chink in the armor was that last year he allowed 7 homers, outside of his rookie year when he started 10 games; he has not allowed more than 5 in any year. I expect, sadly, that this is the type of fall from grace we will see. I don’t think he will just lose it, but I expect more inconsistency as the age of 40 starts to wear him down some. I still think he will be good for us, but every year with him will be one where we hope he can hold on and give us just enough. His great motion and incredible cutter will still be effective, but his control and his arm need to hold up as well…I guess I am hoping for 2 more effective years; not as great as the last 2 but good years where we can count on him…The best of all time deserves a nice ride off into the sunset!
Joba Chamberlain – Perhaps he will be the heir to the job? His stuff is not what it used to be and that is alarming, but I am hopeful he can get to 95+ where his excellent breaking stuff will be more effective. I had goose bumps watching him throw 98+ before he hurt his arm; I can only hope his mental game, his work ethic and his arm can get back on track. There is still a lot unknown from him, but I do think being in the pen is the right thing.
Damarso Marte – I like Marte better than most people, in fact I was pimping him hard all year last year and was going crazy when there was a question whether he would make the post season roster. Well thank God he did as he was outstanding in the postseason. He can get righties out as well, but he has not been as consistent as I would like and has struggled with shoulder issues since we got him. When healthy he can be nasty with a low to mid 90’s fastball and a sharp slider. As our only real lefty he is very important to the bullpen.
Aceves – I am a big fan of his as well. I think he could step in and be a solid starter, but right now he is a guy who could work the 8th, or be middle relief. He is another crafty righty where the ball moves all the time and he can throw strikes with any pitch. I also think he has a good mental approach to the game…Very good guy to have on the team.
Robertson – Robertson showed some ability last year and if he can continue to work on his cutter and more importantly throw strikes, he can be a huge boost as well to the team. He has an excellent curve, but doesn’t have that 3rd pitch and this is why the cutter is so important for him.
Chan Ho Park – The Yankees were impressed with him last year, but I usually like guys who have some more success in the AL. CHP is pretty good against righties and mediocre against lefties, although as a reliever he did a good job. Hopefully he can take it over with us, but this talk about him being the setup guy scares me…I hope he surprises me because I expect a guy who can be helpful but is not a guy who you count on every game.
We will make the playoffs again unless we get barraged with injuries; we are deep and talented.
Jorge Posada – Last year Jorge had an OPS of .885, a little above his career OPS of .860. For a catcher that is an outstanding number because of all the bruises you accumulate throughout the year at the most physically demanding position in baseball (spoken like a catcher). Jorge has been one of the best hitting catchers in MLB history. That being said, I would expect father time to wear Jorge down a little and expect a reduction in OPS of somewhere around 40 points. He is still a very productive hitting catcher, but there is a reason why catchers don’t stay behind home plate that long and hit well. Jorge’s defense has slipped as his throwing since his surgery is not as good as his prime (he actually was very good at throwing runners out for most of his career and was much better than Girardi at it). Jorge also calls a very good game. His major weakness is his receiving ability as he is not smooth at catching the ball as he fights it frequently. He blocks balls about average when he moves his feet, but he has been getting lazy of late (Molina was lazy) and because of that his blocking ability is below average. He is also below average at plays at the plate. Overall, he is still an above average catcher because of his excellent offense out of the catcher’s position. At this age, Posada is a similar player to Victor Martinez for Boston.
Mark Texiera – Mark is very consistent and I would expect that to continue for us this year. He had a .948 OPS last year and I would expect an OPS in the same neighborhood, possibly a tick lower (.940), but he could just as easily be a little above. He also is part of the guys who can wear down the pitchers. His defense is really good, but I don’t think it is in the Mattingly/Hernandez area that many talk like it is. He makes plays look a little harder than they are by swinging his arms and over playing it a little (I guess the opposite of Cano), but he is still one of the better defensive 1st basemen in the league. Mark also throws well for a 1st baseman. The only part of his game that is below average is his speed. Who cares, he has locked down our 1st base situation until his contract is up!
Robinson Cano – As many of the loyal readers know, I am a huge fan of Cano’s. When there was talk about Cano being traded I was against it. Last year I put my entire reputation on the line as I predicted an enormous increase of over 100 points in his OPS and he came through with an increase of an amazing 152 points. Cano has some of the quickest wrists in baseball. He also has great hand eye coordination. His biggest issue is his plate discipline and his plan at the plate. This off season this was the training for him and I expect Cano to take his game to an even higher level this year. Cano has a career OPS of .820 and I expect him to go over .900 this year and I would not be surprised if he is right there with ARod and Texiera either. Cano has that much ability; he just needs to mature as a hitter. My prediction will be .910 and if this wasn’t already almost 100 points above his career mark I would probably make it higher. Plate discipline is all he needs! Robbie’s defense is silky smooth and graceful. His hands around the bag are extremely quick and I have mentioned numerous times that we would get more outs at 2nd base if Cano took the throws instead of Jeter; the difference in quickness is dramatic. Cano also turns 2 much faster than Jeter. Robbie finishes off his game with a very strong arm. He runs pretty well, but he is not a great base stealer.
Alex Rodriguez – Arod has been persecuted by the fans and media unfairly and I have been one of the few that was steadfast in stating the lack of being clutch was a bunch of crap. Well, he finally showed up in the postseason and was enormous for us, being the key cog in carrying us to the title! I hope people will use him as an example of the mistake people make when they label people on a small sample size. ARod has hit 30 homers and 100+ RBI’s for the past 12 years. Even last year, while missing 38 games he still hit those numbers. ARod is a fantastic all around player who has excellent base running instincts. His contract makes him a target, but let’s remember that he wanted to play for us and I like that about players (read that Greg Maddux). I think his contract will be an albatross by the end, but hopefully we will have 3 more titles by that time. I am going to say ARod will be right at his career OPS of .965. ARod’s defense is still good even though he was very stiff last year. He is a solid defender with a strong arm; I would expect his defense to be a little better this year.
Nick Johnson DH – As you read in my free agent analysis previously, I thought the Yankees screwed up letting both Matsui and Damon go. My main point was Matsui would pay for himself in Japanese money and he would still be productive. I stated that I was fine with Damon being let go, but I would have kept Matsui and at the time I stated we will regret this decision. That being said, the Yankees reacted very well in signing Nick Johnson. He fits into the wearing out philosophy we have as a team and I expect he will be a big part of us knocking out pitchers early and then creaming their middle relief. I also expect a little more power than he had the last 2 years as he had a combined 13 homers in the last 2 years. I would expect him to hit that total if he gets 500 AB’s. Health is always a concern with Nick and he did have some back stiffness in spring training, but hopefully he will be fine come the regular season. Assuming reasonable health an OPS near his career OPS of .844 seems a good guess. His ability to get on base at above a .400 clip in front of Texiera and ARod will be very valuable in the 2 spot…and yes that is where I would bat him. People have said he is too slow, but you don’t need to run too fast when Texiera and ARod are hitting 80 homers behind you.
Brett Gardner LF – Again, I will be repeating myself in items that I wrote defending my position that Gardner is as valuable as Damon as an overall player (I took a lot of abuse about this). I also want to point out that Gardner is really only replacing Melky and Granderson is replacing Damon, but because the Yankees have decided that Gardner will be playing LF I am using this comparison. I also want to state that I felt Gardner should be in CF and Granderson should be in LF, but it is not that big a deal to me. Defensively, Gardner’s arm is better than Damon’s worst in the league and Gardner will get to about 2 balls that Damon could not reach. Conservatively I will assume that between the arm and the balls Damon could not get to, the difference in bases is 1.75 a week with Gardner. Assuming Damon has an OPS of .820 (a little above his career of .794 and a little below what he did for us last year) and adjusting it to include SB’s to .835 and we assume that Gardner’s OPS will be about the same as last years with a small bump (.724 last year) up to .735 with a SB adjustment to .795. I used 60 SB’s with 15 caught (the CS is a little high but I am trying to be conservative). Once the 1.75 bases a week for defense is added into the equation you can add another 75 points to the OPS which puts Gardner as a more valuable player than Damon overall…or at least close if you don’t like my math. Gardner is not a great ballplayer at 26, but his skills have a lot more value than people account for and defense is one large part of that. He can save a double with his feet and this is the same thing I used to say about Melky in that Melky was just too slow to be a CF’r. Bottom line is that if Gardner can give us an OPS of .735 and steal bases and play good defense this will work great. I expect Gardner to give up some AB’s to Thames or a platoon partner, but I also expect the same from Granderson and I would not be surprised if he will hit lefties better than Granderson, although neither will be a great option. As many of you know, I think Gardner will do the above and be a good part of our team. If he were in CF his lack of traditional OPS would not be seen as big a deal, but in LF where OPS is usually higher people will be a little more critical.
Curtis Granderson CF – Outside of the comments I stated in the write-up about Curtis, I am very happy with his pickup. I don’t see why so many people think he will all of a sudden become a good hitter let alone an average hitter against lefties, but he is a legitimate stud against righties and playing solid defense makes him very valuable and more valuable than Damon IMO. Over the last 3 years Granderson has an OPS against righties of .940 and an OPS against lefties of .570. I am not sure why I would expect much of a change off of that and in fact, I would be fine with that. Add in SB’s of approximately 20 while getting caught at a reasonable 5 times and he should do just fine. His defense is very solid in CF and while many say he has a weak arm, I think his arm is fine for CF or LF. I would still put Gardner in CF to take advantage of his elite speed, but I am not going to get crazy about the decision as Granderson is still an upgrade over Melky.
Nick Swisher RF – The crazy Nick brings some personality to the team, but also is a pretty good fundamental player. He can sacrifice and while is not a great tracker of balls gets a very good jump on balls. His weakness in RF is mostly his arm as it is not strong for a RF. He played CF at times with Chicago to show you that he is not a bad fielder, but he is not a great defender overall either. One of the extra OF’rs that play good defense could be used as a defensive replacement if needed. As an offensive player Swisher is part of our wearing down of pitchers philosophy and this is a good thing. We got about as much as one could expect form Swisher last year as he finished with an OPS that was barely his best at .869. His career OPS of .817 represents a fair number if you were going to make predictions. I would expect an OPS somewhere in the middle at about .840 or so, but just as important is that he will see a lot of pitches and does know how to sac if needed. Expect high K’s and low batting average to go along with 25+ homer power and 90 walks. He is a productive hitter and player overall.
Randy Winn – I was not a fan of this pickup as it just didn’t seem to be in line with our philosophy of getting younger. Winn may have upside compared to last year’s terrible performance, but after the Yanks traded away Bruney for Hoffman (since released) and Hoffman was supposed to be an excellent defender, the deal just didn’t make sense. The Yanks also have a guy like Golston in the minors who should be able to do what Winn does. Now, I could be wrong on Winn as I have not watched him play very much, but from a few pre season AB’s he has a little hitch in his swing and I don’t see a player that will be that helpful. He did have 2 years in a row with an OPS of .795, but then in 2009 at the age of 35 he had the worst OPS he has had in 10 years when he finished with a .671 OPS. That could be an aberration, but becoming a part time player it is hard to see Winn get much more than a .725 OPS. His defense is solid so that has value, but I just don’t the signing…hopefully he won’t be pushed into duty. I would not be surprised if he is released in the 2nd half of the year
Marcus Thames – Thames is in line with what the Yanks need and that is some OF’rs who can hit lefties. This is especially important when we have 2 potential guys who are in need pinch hitters against lefties late in the game. Thames can hit lefties and this is more in line with what I was looking for out instead of the Winn signing. Don’t expect Thames to do too much; he is 33 so the upside is limited and he will strike out a lot and he will not play well defensively. However, if you just let him play against lefties he will be a productive player in the mid .850’s in OPS. This would represent a huge upgrade over Granderson or Gardner against lefties. Thames also is not an auto out against righties, with an OPS of .742 over the last 3 years. Most of his OPS comes from very good power. Over the last 3 years in 843 AB’s he has hit 56 homers. This is roughly 40 homer power in a 600 AB season. This was a smart pickup as one could expect him to be enough of a threat against a lefty specialist or a platoon starter at DH or LF. He also was signed for less than a mil.
Francisco Cervelli – Cervelli played well in limited time last year and as I said before he is at least as good as Molina all around, with upside. Molina threw extremely well and framed pitches well, he also called a decent game, but he was slow with is footwork and lazy in blocking balls. Molina also could not hit at all as he had a putrid OPS of .560 last year. Cervelli did not show any walking ability and also did not show much power, but he did show the ability to make contact and actually hit a weak .298. With some improvement of more playing time I would expect him to increase his .681 OPS to the low .720 range and hopefully he can be better. His plate discipline will have to get better, but he could make a jump. His defense is pretty solid all around so this is an upgrade over Molina.
Ramiro Pena – I like Pena and I stated I liked him better than Hairston last year. Obviously, I am glad Hairston was not kept around. Pena is a very slick defender so he can play any infield position except first and play it well. His best position is at SS and he is a better defender than Jeter. Hard to say if he is better at 3rd or 2nd base than ARod or Cano, but I would guess no to Cano and maybe to ARod. Either way he is a good utility infielder who can give you good AB’s from the left side of the plate when you need a hit. He is not an OPS machine, but his .700 OPS last year was respectable. He also had an OPS of .818 against righties! That is very impressive but also shows you how weak he was against lefties (.274 OPS). Basically he should play against righties to give Jeter and ARod a day off and probably against righties to give Cano a day off as well. He is also 24 so maybe he develops a little more power, although his frame and swing does not lend itself to too much power. Either way, he is a very good utility guy and may be our future at SS?
Pitchers
CC Sabathia – I am a big fan of CC’s. He was the prize a year ago and he will anchor our staff. He is not as dominating as Halladay, but CC is an absolute ace. His ERA of 3.37 last year was in line with what you could expect from him. I would expect and ERA of just under 3.50 from him again and getting his 230 innings we should expect him to win in the same area of wins he had the last few year…about 18 give or take a few. His changeup allows him to get through games when everything else is out of kilter. He also is a good athlete (and hitter) for a huge man who is probably close to 300 pounds.
AJ Burnett – Burnett really has dynamite stuff. Sometimes throwing upper 90’s with sick movement. He also has a plus breaking ball. The issue is he falls apart many times and can’t control that great stuff and teams get big innings off of him. He is one of those guys that you hope one day he could put it all together, but surprisingly has only won more than 13 games once in his career. Last year his ERA was a respectable 4.04, but he was only able to win 13 games and I would like to see him get that ERA below 4. This may not be some crazy prediction, but I think Burnett will do what he has only done once in his career and he will break that 13 barrier again. I am hoping he will give us that around 4 ERA and win 16+ games. He may be maturing as a pitcher…I hope so.
Andy Pettitte – Talk about the guy who seems to be getting better with age. Andy was one of the more surprising stories for me last year. I never predicted him to be so solid and consistent because he seemed like he wanted to retire. He is not 40 years old, but at 37 one would expect to see some more issues with him. However, he has learned to be a lot more than just a cutter pitcher as he throws his breaking ball at 2 different speeds, turns over his fastball and now throws a change once in awhile. His velocity is still around 90 which is enough. He had an ERA of 4.16 last year and a 4.54 the year before. As long as Andy can keep his shoulder healthy, I think he can give us an ERA in that 4.25 range which would be very good with our offense.
Javier Vazquez – Let me first say that I was for this trade. Mostly because I think Gardner will be able to do what Austin Jackson may be able to do. Let me also say that anyone expecting an ERA below 3.00 from him is really wishing. Yes, he was great last year with a 2.87 ERA and yes he might have learned how to be an amazingly craft righty, but in the AL you can’t get away from mistakes as easy. His ERA in the AL has been about 4.50, but I am hopeful that he might have learned something last year and he can take that and better that 4.50 ERA and get it down to a 4.30 or so. He has always been a streaky pitcher so hopefully he will be going well for the postseason.
Phil Hughes – I have received more questions about the Hughes Joba situation than any other (Gardner was close). I was in favor of getting both players ready to be starters last year. However, in the postseason I felt better about Joba in the pen and felt that Hughes was better suited to start. Joba has the mentality of a short reliever and I think Hughes has the makeup and pitches as a starter. Hughes is still only 23 and I believe will pitch very well this year and will be backing CC before within the next year or 2. He will run into some speed bumps, but I am really looking forward to watching him this year.
Mariano Rivera (The Genius Maker) - What can you say about the greatest closer the game has ever seen? Every year you think this is the year you expect to see him be ineffective and over the last 2 regular seasons he has blown only 3 saves while saving 83 games! One chink in the armor was that last year he allowed 7 homers, outside of his rookie year when he started 10 games; he has not allowed more than 5 in any year. I expect, sadly, that this is the type of fall from grace we will see. I don’t think he will just lose it, but I expect more inconsistency as the age of 40 starts to wear him down some. I still think he will be good for us, but every year with him will be one where we hope he can hold on and give us just enough. His great motion and incredible cutter will still be effective, but his control and his arm need to hold up as well…I guess I am hoping for 2 more effective years; not as great as the last 2 but good years where we can count on him…The best of all time deserves a nice ride off into the sunset!
Joba Chamberlain – Perhaps he will be the heir to the job? His stuff is not what it used to be and that is alarming, but I am hopeful he can get to 95+ where his excellent breaking stuff will be more effective. I had goose bumps watching him throw 98+ before he hurt his arm; I can only hope his mental game, his work ethic and his arm can get back on track. There is still a lot unknown from him, but I do think being in the pen is the right thing.
Damarso Marte – I like Marte better than most people, in fact I was pimping him hard all year last year and was going crazy when there was a question whether he would make the post season roster. Well thank God he did as he was outstanding in the postseason. He can get righties out as well, but he has not been as consistent as I would like and has struggled with shoulder issues since we got him. When healthy he can be nasty with a low to mid 90’s fastball and a sharp slider. As our only real lefty he is very important to the bullpen.
Aceves – I am a big fan of his as well. I think he could step in and be a solid starter, but right now he is a guy who could work the 8th, or be middle relief. He is another crafty righty where the ball moves all the time and he can throw strikes with any pitch. I also think he has a good mental approach to the game…Very good guy to have on the team.
Robertson – Robertson showed some ability last year and if he can continue to work on his cutter and more importantly throw strikes, he can be a huge boost as well to the team. He has an excellent curve, but doesn’t have that 3rd pitch and this is why the cutter is so important for him.
Chan Ho Park – The Yankees were impressed with him last year, but I usually like guys who have some more success in the AL. CHP is pretty good against righties and mediocre against lefties, although as a reliever he did a good job. Hopefully he can take it over with us, but this talk about him being the setup guy scares me…I hope he surprises me because I expect a guy who can be helpful but is not a guy who you count on every game.
We will make the playoffs again unless we get barraged with injuries; we are deep and talented.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
2010 off season #8
Ahh, some news that is worthy of having some substance to a blog. Well, not exactly breathtaking, but Johnny Damon not coming back does have some emotion to it for many people. I am not one of them though. Nothing against Damon, he is worth about the same as Gardner and possibly even a little more if you project the same year for an aging Damon and a younger Gardner. It is probably a wash if you take the slight increase one would project for Gardner and a decrease for Damon, especially with his defense.
The real question is whether the yanks were better off taking the 2 mil for Randy Winn (just signed), and another 4 mil for Gaudin and Mitre and offered a one year 6 mil dollar deal?
Without any injuries, I will say probably not. Gaudin and Mitre may be middle relief and nothing else, but if they pitch well or if one of them pitches well it could be a nice chip for a deal.
I also want to see what Gardner has because even with what he did last year, it is more productive than Melky and what if he improves.
“Will you get to the Randy Winn deal, what do you think?”
At 2 mil the deal can’t be horrible, but I am not excited by it either. Winn was atrocious against lefties last year and a little below average against righties last year. However, Winn is coming off one of his worst seasons with an OPS of .671 and he was even worse against lefties with a .384 (yes that was his OPS). This is even more curious considering the Yanks need some help against lefties with Granderson and Gardner?
Obviously the Yankees are hoping that last year was an aberration as Winn was pretty good the 2 previous years and actually hit lefties very well over the last 2 years with an OPS against lefties around .870.
His defense is supposed to be very solid as he runs well and gets good breaks on the ball. He can also play all 3 OF positions so he can help in RF as needed, perhaps coming in to pinch run for Posada or even Nick Swisher and staying to play RF. He could also pinch run for Nick Johnson, but you would lose the DH. He is not blazing but even as he gets older he is a guy who can steal 15 bases and get caught only a few times.
Overall, at 36 in June, I am not expecting a huge turnaround, but last year did seem like a bit of a sharp decline and perhaps it was just one of those years. I see him as a guy who gives a little late flexibility in defense and speed while also providing a little better OF depth in case of an injury. He probably would not be much worse than Melky overall. I still would have liked a lefty bopper, but we will need to hope that Jamie Hoffman can provide some help in that area. Overall, when a team brings in a lefty specialist to face Curtis G or Brett G we won’t have a good answer.
On a minor note, not sure if anyone noticed, the Yanks also signed Greg Golson. He is a 24 year old fast outfielder with a good arm. He has not developed much as a hitter yet (.703 OPS) but when Texas couldn’t keep him on their 40 man roster when they signed Khalil Green, the Yanks grabbed some depth with the hopes he could develop. Last year was his first at AAA. He had 20 SB’s only getting caught a few times in about 400 AB’s
I still owe a recap of my thoughts last year. Overall, the off season was OK. Not as exciting as last year, but not bad either. We replaced Damon with Granderson, Matsui with Nick Johnson, Melky with Winn and Hoffman for Hairston. We also added Vazquez and Logan for Coke and Bruney. If you think about it, the only one that is not a win is the Matsui one, but Nick could be better as an every day player compared to Matsui. 100 wins with normal health should happen.
The Genius Maker tm is a tribute to Mariano Rivera who makes coaches look a like a genius...
The real question is whether the yanks were better off taking the 2 mil for Randy Winn (just signed), and another 4 mil for Gaudin and Mitre and offered a one year 6 mil dollar deal?
Without any injuries, I will say probably not. Gaudin and Mitre may be middle relief and nothing else, but if they pitch well or if one of them pitches well it could be a nice chip for a deal.
I also want to see what Gardner has because even with what he did last year, it is more productive than Melky and what if he improves.
“Will you get to the Randy Winn deal, what do you think?”
At 2 mil the deal can’t be horrible, but I am not excited by it either. Winn was atrocious against lefties last year and a little below average against righties last year. However, Winn is coming off one of his worst seasons with an OPS of .671 and he was even worse against lefties with a .384 (yes that was his OPS). This is even more curious considering the Yanks need some help against lefties with Granderson and Gardner?
Obviously the Yankees are hoping that last year was an aberration as Winn was pretty good the 2 previous years and actually hit lefties very well over the last 2 years with an OPS against lefties around .870.
His defense is supposed to be very solid as he runs well and gets good breaks on the ball. He can also play all 3 OF positions so he can help in RF as needed, perhaps coming in to pinch run for Posada or even Nick Swisher and staying to play RF. He could also pinch run for Nick Johnson, but you would lose the DH. He is not blazing but even as he gets older he is a guy who can steal 15 bases and get caught only a few times.
Overall, at 36 in June, I am not expecting a huge turnaround, but last year did seem like a bit of a sharp decline and perhaps it was just one of those years. I see him as a guy who gives a little late flexibility in defense and speed while also providing a little better OF depth in case of an injury. He probably would not be much worse than Melky overall. I still would have liked a lefty bopper, but we will need to hope that Jamie Hoffman can provide some help in that area. Overall, when a team brings in a lefty specialist to face Curtis G or Brett G we won’t have a good answer.
On a minor note, not sure if anyone noticed, the Yanks also signed Greg Golson. He is a 24 year old fast outfielder with a good arm. He has not developed much as a hitter yet (.703 OPS) but when Texas couldn’t keep him on their 40 man roster when they signed Khalil Green, the Yanks grabbed some depth with the hopes he could develop. Last year was his first at AAA. He had 20 SB’s only getting caught a few times in about 400 AB’s
I still owe a recap of my thoughts last year. Overall, the off season was OK. Not as exciting as last year, but not bad either. We replaced Damon with Granderson, Matsui with Nick Johnson, Melky with Winn and Hoffman for Hairston. We also added Vazquez and Logan for Coke and Bruney. If you think about it, the only one that is not a win is the Matsui one, but Nick could be better as an every day player compared to Matsui. 100 wins with normal health should happen.
The Genius Maker tm is a tribute to Mariano Rivera who makes coaches look a like a genius...
Sunday, December 27, 2009
2010 off season #7
Let’s analyze the trade:
The Yankees traded Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn (L) and 19 year old minor league pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino (and $500k) for Javier Vazques and Boone Logan (L).
I have received a lot of questions about why we would bring a retread back, such as Vazquez, who was part of the biggest collapse we have seen and someone who had an ERA over 4.65 in 2 of his last 3 years in the AL (with the White Sox)? In his one year with us he had an ERA of 4.91. “He is a classic NL pitcher” are the comments I received.
The above is hard to argue with as the numbers do speak for themselves.
I must say that back in 2004, (I didn’t have an official blog back then) I was a fan of getting Javier. He was young and coming off some impressive seasons for the Expos, I thought he would be a nice piece of our puzzle. He had a very good 1st half of the year going 10-5 with an ERA of 3.56! Unfortunately, the wheels came off the bus as he was so bad in the 2nd half that the Yankees didn’t start him in the playoffs. His ERA in the 2nd half was 6.92 as he allowed a ton homers. You may have the bad memory of him making sure the Yankees wouldn’t come back n game 7 against the Red Sox when he allowed a grand slam to Damon in the early innings (I think 2nd?).
Some people said that he was pitching through an arm injury that year as his total innings was below 200 innings for the only time in his career since 2000. This is one of the reasons the Yankees like him…he is an absolute innings eater. Of course, quality innings are important, but as a number 4 starter he is a really good one (or at least we should think he is a really good one).
So what do I think? I have to admit I didn’t see too much of him this last year and I know with the White Sox that we hit him very well. In fact, when I looked it up it was very surprising to see that the Yankees have hit Vazquez MUCH better than any other team. The Yankees OPS against him is a whopping .996 (that is sick) with an ERA of 7.09. Surprisingly, every other team had an OPS below .800. Against Boston his ERA is 4.23.
Back to what I see… I always liked the way he pitched in that he does not give free passes and throws a lot of different pitches. For the most part he was a fastball and 12-6 curveball type pitcher and he worked in his change as well. He always let up a lot of homers and that most likely will not change. However, he obviously made some great changes to his game in Atlanta as he had the best ERA of his career, an impressive 2.87 ERA, was 4th in the CY young award voting and once again threw a lot of innings (219). The other good indicator was that he struck out a career high 238 batters against only 44 walks. Last year he was awesome. Supposedly he threw his slider a lot more last year and worked in more changeups as well and had excellent results.
One could say that Atlanta sold high on Vazquez, although their first choice was to trade away Derek Lowe, but they had no takers. Javier has one year left before he is a free agent and he is making 11 mil.
So what did we give up? Dunn is a decent lefty arm, but I don’t see him as being some great pitcher and was not dominant against lefties so that is something expendable. Those of you know that I think Melky is very expendable as he is a backup player who doesn’t hit well enough for a corner OF spot and doesn’t play defense well enough to be a CF’r. He is still young and could develop, but, while I am in the minority, I believe Gardner is better than he is. We also gave up a good pitching prospect in Arodys Vizcaino. He is ranked in the top 3 of Yankee prospects according to a few sources. He is 19 and has a lot of work to do, but he can throw 94 and has some good ability, although is still raw (these are from what I have read and not my own opinions).
Conclusion: Basically, we gave up some depth and a very good prospect who is years away and may never be anything, or may be very good, for an established innings eater (has started 32 games for 10 straight years) with one year left on his contract, who is coming off an excellent year. I think this was a good trade for the Yanks. The downside of Vazquez should still be decent for a 4th starter and the upside is that he could very well be the 2nd best pitcher on our staff.
I hope this sets us up for Hughes to be in the rotation and Joba to be in the pen. While a starter is worth far more than a reliever and I may be pulling the plug on Joba as a starter too soon, he seems to have the mentality of a closer to me. Maybe as he matures that would change, but I would leave him in the pen.
The Yankees will probably get some more OF depth, but I hope they let Gardner possibly develop into Jacoby Ellsbury as they are similar players. I am not in favor of signing Damon for LF and unless the Yanks decide to break their budget, they most likely won’t get Bay or Holliday either.
One last note, Rivera and Jeter are both in the last years of their contracts. Surprisingly, they both are still going strong. I wonder how this will play out? Cashman has said that winning is all that he cares about and he has let others go (as I think he should), however, certain players get the benefit for me and these two guys would be at the top of the list for paying them as a thanks. Neither should ever wear another uniform.
The Genius Maker tm is a tribute to Mariano Rivera who makes coaches look a like a genius...
The Yankees traded Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn (L) and 19 year old minor league pitching prospect Arodys Vizcaino (and $500k) for Javier Vazques and Boone Logan (L).
I have received a lot of questions about why we would bring a retread back, such as Vazquez, who was part of the biggest collapse we have seen and someone who had an ERA over 4.65 in 2 of his last 3 years in the AL (with the White Sox)? In his one year with us he had an ERA of 4.91. “He is a classic NL pitcher” are the comments I received.
The above is hard to argue with as the numbers do speak for themselves.
I must say that back in 2004, (I didn’t have an official blog back then) I was a fan of getting Javier. He was young and coming off some impressive seasons for the Expos, I thought he would be a nice piece of our puzzle. He had a very good 1st half of the year going 10-5 with an ERA of 3.56! Unfortunately, the wheels came off the bus as he was so bad in the 2nd half that the Yankees didn’t start him in the playoffs. His ERA in the 2nd half was 6.92 as he allowed a ton homers. You may have the bad memory of him making sure the Yankees wouldn’t come back n game 7 against the Red Sox when he allowed a grand slam to Damon in the early innings (I think 2nd?).
Some people said that he was pitching through an arm injury that year as his total innings was below 200 innings for the only time in his career since 2000. This is one of the reasons the Yankees like him…he is an absolute innings eater. Of course, quality innings are important, but as a number 4 starter he is a really good one (or at least we should think he is a really good one).
So what do I think? I have to admit I didn’t see too much of him this last year and I know with the White Sox that we hit him very well. In fact, when I looked it up it was very surprising to see that the Yankees have hit Vazquez MUCH better than any other team. The Yankees OPS against him is a whopping .996 (that is sick) with an ERA of 7.09. Surprisingly, every other team had an OPS below .800. Against Boston his ERA is 4.23.
Back to what I see… I always liked the way he pitched in that he does not give free passes and throws a lot of different pitches. For the most part he was a fastball and 12-6 curveball type pitcher and he worked in his change as well. He always let up a lot of homers and that most likely will not change. However, he obviously made some great changes to his game in Atlanta as he had the best ERA of his career, an impressive 2.87 ERA, was 4th in the CY young award voting and once again threw a lot of innings (219). The other good indicator was that he struck out a career high 238 batters against only 44 walks. Last year he was awesome. Supposedly he threw his slider a lot more last year and worked in more changeups as well and had excellent results.
One could say that Atlanta sold high on Vazquez, although their first choice was to trade away Derek Lowe, but they had no takers. Javier has one year left before he is a free agent and he is making 11 mil.
So what did we give up? Dunn is a decent lefty arm, but I don’t see him as being some great pitcher and was not dominant against lefties so that is something expendable. Those of you know that I think Melky is very expendable as he is a backup player who doesn’t hit well enough for a corner OF spot and doesn’t play defense well enough to be a CF’r. He is still young and could develop, but, while I am in the minority, I believe Gardner is better than he is. We also gave up a good pitching prospect in Arodys Vizcaino. He is ranked in the top 3 of Yankee prospects according to a few sources. He is 19 and has a lot of work to do, but he can throw 94 and has some good ability, although is still raw (these are from what I have read and not my own opinions).
Conclusion: Basically, we gave up some depth and a very good prospect who is years away and may never be anything, or may be very good, for an established innings eater (has started 32 games for 10 straight years) with one year left on his contract, who is coming off an excellent year. I think this was a good trade for the Yanks. The downside of Vazquez should still be decent for a 4th starter and the upside is that he could very well be the 2nd best pitcher on our staff.
I hope this sets us up for Hughes to be in the rotation and Joba to be in the pen. While a starter is worth far more than a reliever and I may be pulling the plug on Joba as a starter too soon, he seems to have the mentality of a closer to me. Maybe as he matures that would change, but I would leave him in the pen.
The Yankees will probably get some more OF depth, but I hope they let Gardner possibly develop into Jacoby Ellsbury as they are similar players. I am not in favor of signing Damon for LF and unless the Yanks decide to break their budget, they most likely won’t get Bay or Holliday either.
One last note, Rivera and Jeter are both in the last years of their contracts. Surprisingly, they both are still going strong. I wonder how this will play out? Cashman has said that winning is all that he cares about and he has let others go (as I think he should), however, certain players get the benefit for me and these two guys would be at the top of the list for paying them as a thanks. Neither should ever wear another uniform.
The Genius Maker tm is a tribute to Mariano Rivera who makes coaches look a like a genius...
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