I called my brother after the 1st inning as I was really impressed with Masterson. He had great movement and velocity throwing a 94-96 MPH fastball along with a 92/93 sinker and he also ran his fastball at 93-94. Great movement. His breaking ball is not very good, but those are some very good fastballs. As it turned out he stymied us and got some terrific defense by Asdrubal Cabrera at SS that ended our threat in the later part of the game. He made 2 very good plays and if he missed both, we probably would have won the game. He made both and they even got ARod out on a grounder up the middle that happened because of good positioning (playing him up the middle).
The real important part of this game was Hughes and how he looked. My opinion is that he was VERY fortunate he didn’t get knocked out before the 5th ended. He started throwing about 93 with his cutter at 91, but by the 5th inning he had nothing and we were lucky he left the bases loaded and only allowed 2 runs in 5 innings. He was throwing 91 with an 88-89 MPH cutter and didn’t have anything at that point. In 5 innings he allowed 6 hits, 2 walks and 2 HBP’s. he did work in a change which I thought was good and his curve was thrown a little harder than in the past at about 75 instead of low 70’s. He used to be able to throw fastballs and get them by guys, now they are teeing off on his fastball; he had ZERO swing and misses on his fastball and I believe only 2 all game on everything (my unofficial tally); that is not good. He will need to be a crafty righty. It is his first game back and he does have enough of a repertoire to be effective, but I was not encouraged. He really seems like a guy who needs to be able to reach 94 consistently to set everything else up better. I will chalk up the reduced velocity in the 5th as only a stamina item that will be corrected.
One other item on Hughes; he seemed much more upright to me rather than driving and reaching toward home like he used to. That may or may not be good, but I noticed a change in his delivery
Other comments:
Mitre let the game get out of hand with a terrible performance allowing 2 runs in one inning; they ended up being the game losing runs. Ayala allowed 2 hits in 2/3 of an inning, but they were very cheap grounders that found the hole each time. Logan did a good job, but then allowed a solo HR in his 2nd inning or work (he only record 3 outs).
Cano had one of those AB’s where you just want to grab him and shake him and say, get your head out of your … and see the ball and hit it! He took a strike and then after a very bad pitch that he couldn’t swing at, he swung at 4 straight pitches where the first was close, the 2nd was a clear ball he swung at as was the 3rd and then he swung at the last pitch that was not even close. He is frustrating because of his elite talent.
Michael Kay had a terrible day of announcing; he constantly had no ability to judge a ball off the bat. While he usually says a ball is driven or hit deep when it is nothing of the sort, when a ball was driven deep by Swisher, he didn’t say anything as he thought it was just a routine fly and it ended up being caught at the wall. He also made a few other comments that I just shook my head about. The only comment he made that was appropriate (well I am sure there were more) was when he said that the ump shouldn’t have given Hafner his base when Logan hit him as he didn’t move at all until after contact and it went off his elbow pad. I am of the belief that if you are going to wear body armor then you must make a legit effort to get out of the way, otherwise you could where a Kevlar arm pad and lean over the plate…just silly they allow that.
BTW, Am I the only one who has ever seen that called by the ump where they did not award a base on a HBP because the batter didn’t get out of the way?
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
The Genius Maker #52
Some of you asked about my comments regarding Rivera and the pitch selection with Martin. In my haste I write things and do not always flush them out so that many of you can follow my logic (or lack of) The main issue with the pitch selection I have seen is that as much as I think Cervelli is a waste of a roster spot, he calls a good game with Rivera. He does this because he calls for the running fastball inside to a righty hitter. In fact, one of the reasons I was so excited about Rivera continuing to pitch at a high level was that he now had a cutter and a running fastball to add to the in and out and something that could really mess up righties. In fact, last year was the first year Rivera was better against righties than lefties since 2004 where he was barely better against righties. The running fastball (tails into the righty) was the main reason in my opinion. For some reason Martin just didn't call that pitch and while I may be wrong about this, Rivera does not seem to call off any pitches from catchers…or rarely does. He feels that if he makes his pitch he will get an out. Posada called for it last year and Cervelli did as well. In terms of the other pitch selection, they are just part of the game and many times mistakes are made and of course I may be wrong in my opinion as well. There are many times where I would be OK with 2 different calls and it is a matter of preference at that point, but other times there are calls that I feel are just wrong. For example, I may feel a slider low and away or a fastball up and in would both be fine to throw, but the change would not be a good call. Usually when you have your choice of good pitches to throw, it is because the previous pitch or pitches were the correct ones to set you up well. Like a lot of the decisions I get angry with, it is the first one that leads to a chain reaction of bad decisions…the same with pitch selection. Last comment, when I say pitch selection, I am referring also to location. Sometimes the actual pitch is the right one and it is the location that is wrong.
As for last night’s game, every Yankee had 2 hits except Cervelli, who had none.
CC did his thing and picked up his 12th win.
Boston got a lucky break as Papelbon came on to protect a 3-0 lead in the 9th inning. He allowed 4 hits and a walk but the game ended on a single with the tying run coming to the plate where the runner beat the throw but slid right into Varitek’s leg but still got hit other leg in as Varitek did not tag him until very late. It was a bad call as the runner was safe and it would have been sweet for him to blow that save and maybe the game.
Posada solidified his status as the worst base runner in the game after a he ripped a double he was caught standing 9literally standing) as he didn’t know whether to run or go back to 2nd base on a hit kind of at him. He needs to continue to hit well because he has lost about 4 hits with pathetic base running…he is swinging the bat well though.
Is anyone else a little upset Nova was sent down for Hughes? Nova has a respectable 4.12 ERA; the same as Burnett and Nova was also 8-4 and we won the last 5 starts he had. I know his WHIP is high and he has not been an innings eater, but he was pitching well enough to stay. The problem is who else should be dropped? Nobody really and with the options left he was the right choice. The question should be “is Hughes better than Nova?” If Hughes is not throwing a consistent 93 and hopefully 94, the answer is probably no.
As for last night’s game, every Yankee had 2 hits except Cervelli, who had none.
CC did his thing and picked up his 12th win.
Boston got a lucky break as Papelbon came on to protect a 3-0 lead in the 9th inning. He allowed 4 hits and a walk but the game ended on a single with the tying run coming to the plate where the runner beat the throw but slid right into Varitek’s leg but still got hit other leg in as Varitek did not tag him until very late. It was a bad call as the runner was safe and it would have been sweet for him to blow that save and maybe the game.
Posada solidified his status as the worst base runner in the game after a he ripped a double he was caught standing 9literally standing) as he didn’t know whether to run or go back to 2nd base on a hit kind of at him. He needs to continue to hit well because he has lost about 4 hits with pathetic base running…he is swinging the bat well though.
Is anyone else a little upset Nova was sent down for Hughes? Nova has a respectable 4.12 ERA; the same as Burnett and Nova was also 8-4 and we won the last 5 starts he had. I know his WHIP is high and he has not been an innings eater, but he was pitching well enough to stay. The problem is who else should be dropped? Nobody really and with the options left he was the right choice. The question should be “is Hughes better than Nova?” If Hughes is not throwing a consistent 93 and hopefully 94, the answer is probably no.
Monday, July 4, 2011
The Genius Maker #51
Garcia was pitching great all night painting the corners and changing speeds. He had 82 pitches…82! Why did Girardi feel the need to take him out in a 1 run game? I was watching with my father in law and I said this is the type of decision that Girardi makes that drives me crazy. We have a good chance of winning the game with Robertson and Rivera closing it out but in a 1 run game anything can happen so why go to the bullpen where it is possible one of them won’t have “it” this night…or maybe one just allows a run somehow and then you have a weak bullpen for extra innings. Why not let Garcia pitch the 8th and maybe he even goes the distance? If he uses too many pitches in the 8th you can go directly to Rivera for the 9th and if Rivera blows the save you then have Robertson for the 10th.
In the last 3 innings, Garcia faced the minimum 9 batters. You simply do not take him out pitching so well and with such a small amount of pitches. What is the reason to take him out after 82 pitches? Robertson struggled walking 2 batters, but got through the 8th. Rivera actually had good movement, but I didn’t like the location Martin was using with Rivera. He walked Bay with 2 outs by not throwing a single pitch inside. Then after a single that was fought off into RC there was 1st and 3rd. Here is where I was really ticked off at the pitch selection. Rivera got ahead 0-2 after an outside fastball was taken for a strike. I wanted another pitch in the same location but another 5 inches outside. Instead they decided to come inside. I hated the call and said so at the time. As it turned out Rivera made a good pitch that was just low but was taken for a ball. Then he went outside again but for a strike and the batter went with it for an easy single. I think they blew their chance to throw the same pitch and then they could have come inside. Hard to know how it would work, but I was sure enough I made a big deal about it (as my father in law was probably looking at me like I was crazy).
Then came the odd situation where Pena decided to all of a sudden forget he was a good defensive player (and probably sealed his minor league trip Monday). He simply missed a groundball and luckily completely missed it, but instead of the game being over Gardner charged hard and made a good throw home and Martin made a very good tag keeping the game alive.
The offense didn’t get it done and with Robertson already spent we had our only lefty in the pen left and our secondary relievers. Girardi decided to go to Ayala who committed the crime of walking the leadoff hitter. After a sacrifice, Ayala hit the next batter. Girardi made his first correct move since starting Garcia and that was to bring in Logan who has pitched well of late. Logan didn’t disappoint as he struck out Beltran, looking very sharp throwing a 95 MPH heater and some breaking balls to keep him off balance. Logan then turned his attention to Murphy. Again Logan was looking good and Murphy defensively hit a weak ball to SS that Pena goofed up again loading up the bases. Very odd for Pena, but he simply messed it up.
Now Girardi went to the mound and my comment was if he takes Logan out Girardi deserves to lose this game. Why take out a guy who is looking very sharp? I like Noesi and think he will have a good future, but he is the 2nd to last guy in our pen right now (mitre), why take Logan out? Even if Noesi gets out of it, now you have nobody left? Just stupid.
Just to see if there was something crazy I was not aware of I looked at the splits and while Bay has been much better against righties this year, he is almost dead on even for the previous 3 years so probably not a difference. However, Noesi has been torched by righties this year and been good against lefties, so there was no logic, just idiocy. Bay knocks in the winning run and Steve ends up being ticked off all night.
Let’s recap (just as I did all night). Taking Garcia out…stupid and this causes the chain of events to unfold…Then Pena screwed up…then Girardi pressed the wrong button in Ayala, but did take him out after a walk and a HBP to bring in Logan who was razor sharp…so Girardi took him out so we could lose the game.
A couple other points:
I have no idea why Izzy threw Granderson a fastball after 2 straight curves and allowed Grandy to hit a sac fly and get Gardner home after his triple. I was glad though.
I still think Martin has not called good games with Rivera and I have not seen the numbers but I wonder if Rivera has done better with the other catchers?
The strike zone box seemed like it was too far to the left most of the night; meaning a fastball to the lefty that was inside looked like a strike on the box. It seemed better in the later innings.
Boston won so we are 1.5 up
In the last 3 innings, Garcia faced the minimum 9 batters. You simply do not take him out pitching so well and with such a small amount of pitches. What is the reason to take him out after 82 pitches? Robertson struggled walking 2 batters, but got through the 8th. Rivera actually had good movement, but I didn’t like the location Martin was using with Rivera. He walked Bay with 2 outs by not throwing a single pitch inside. Then after a single that was fought off into RC there was 1st and 3rd. Here is where I was really ticked off at the pitch selection. Rivera got ahead 0-2 after an outside fastball was taken for a strike. I wanted another pitch in the same location but another 5 inches outside. Instead they decided to come inside. I hated the call and said so at the time. As it turned out Rivera made a good pitch that was just low but was taken for a ball. Then he went outside again but for a strike and the batter went with it for an easy single. I think they blew their chance to throw the same pitch and then they could have come inside. Hard to know how it would work, but I was sure enough I made a big deal about it (as my father in law was probably looking at me like I was crazy).
Then came the odd situation where Pena decided to all of a sudden forget he was a good defensive player (and probably sealed his minor league trip Monday). He simply missed a groundball and luckily completely missed it, but instead of the game being over Gardner charged hard and made a good throw home and Martin made a very good tag keeping the game alive.
The offense didn’t get it done and with Robertson already spent we had our only lefty in the pen left and our secondary relievers. Girardi decided to go to Ayala who committed the crime of walking the leadoff hitter. After a sacrifice, Ayala hit the next batter. Girardi made his first correct move since starting Garcia and that was to bring in Logan who has pitched well of late. Logan didn’t disappoint as he struck out Beltran, looking very sharp throwing a 95 MPH heater and some breaking balls to keep him off balance. Logan then turned his attention to Murphy. Again Logan was looking good and Murphy defensively hit a weak ball to SS that Pena goofed up again loading up the bases. Very odd for Pena, but he simply messed it up.
Now Girardi went to the mound and my comment was if he takes Logan out Girardi deserves to lose this game. Why take out a guy who is looking very sharp? I like Noesi and think he will have a good future, but he is the 2nd to last guy in our pen right now (mitre), why take Logan out? Even if Noesi gets out of it, now you have nobody left? Just stupid.
Just to see if there was something crazy I was not aware of I looked at the splits and while Bay has been much better against righties this year, he is almost dead on even for the previous 3 years so probably not a difference. However, Noesi has been torched by righties this year and been good against lefties, so there was no logic, just idiocy. Bay knocks in the winning run and Steve ends up being ticked off all night.
Let’s recap (just as I did all night). Taking Garcia out…stupid and this causes the chain of events to unfold…Then Pena screwed up…then Girardi pressed the wrong button in Ayala, but did take him out after a walk and a HBP to bring in Logan who was razor sharp…so Girardi took him out so we could lose the game.
A couple other points:
I have no idea why Izzy threw Granderson a fastball after 2 straight curves and allowed Grandy to hit a sac fly and get Gardner home after his triple. I was glad though.
I still think Martin has not called good games with Rivera and I have not seen the numbers but I wonder if Rivera has done better with the other catchers?
The strike zone box seemed like it was too far to the left most of the night; meaning a fastball to the lefty that was inside looked like a strike on the box. It seemed better in the later innings.
Boston won so we are 1.5 up
Sunday, July 3, 2011
The Genius Maker #50
The main item I wanted to see was how Colon came back…he was still pumping 95, had decent control and didn’t walk anybody; YES! That was so important to see. Colon has an ERA of 1 over his last 4 starts.
Nunez has had an incredible offensive performance against the Mets going 7 for 8 with a HR and 3 doubles in the two games. He also was robbed of a line drive for his only out that probably would have been at least a double. When Girardi was asked about what he will do at SS he laughed and responded Jeter is our SS and then gave his usual BS answer about how Jeter has been our SS forever and he will be our SS when he comes back. Now, I am not ready to give Nunez our SS starting job because of a few games, but not because Jeter deserves to hold it, but because Nunez simply is not a professional defensive SS at this point of his career and I have concerns he isn’t fluid enough to be there on an everyday basis. It is possible that he has played so many positions he can’t get comfortable, but the fluidity is still an issue. Jeter is not a good defensive SS, but he is a SS who makes the plays within his lack of range area at a very high rate. When you combine average defense (at best) with sub .700 OPS that is NOT a valuable player. The issue is we have nobody better right now. Of course, if Nunez would hit .339 with some power (as he has during Jeter being gone) one could make a case that he deserves to play over Jeter. I am fine playing Jeter for now, but I would get Nunez AB’s and rest the starters; he should be playing against every lefty. Oh and Jeter should not bat leadoff against righties…no way I would lead him off against righties. I believe there is little chance Girardi will be smart about this and agree with me though. Make the move now so you don’t have to do it after he breaks 3000 hits.
Not sure if anyone is aware but Cory Wade has now pitched 8 scoreless innings for us allowing only 5 hits while walking only 1. He is not overpowering, but he throws strikes and switches up the speeds and planes he throws. His career ERA in limited innings (107) is 2.97 and looks like a decent middle guy. BTW, his career WHIP is 1.03 so he doesn’t allow a lot of base runners and really limits his walks. I have not analyzed his pitching too much as of yet, but he has done a nice job and the limited history shows he is deserving of a spot. He just turned 28 and had a very good year with the Dodgers in 2008, pitched only 28 innings in 2009 and got injured without pitching at all in 2010. We really need to give Cashman and his team a lot of credit this year. I also believe that Larry Roethschild deserves a lot of credit as the pitching has been excellent all year.
Those of you who have read this blog remember me talking about one of the things ARod just does not do well and that is his feel for tagging runners. Many times he fields the ball too far in front (like Jeter) or is stiff on the tag (also like Jeter) and Friday night you saw him come up on the throw and miss the tag on Reyes. Fortunately the home plate umpire who covered on the play could not see the missed tag. BTW, ARod is still not great on popups (even though he hasn't missed any this year), but outside of that he is remarkably really aware about everything else in the game and has fantastic instincts.
Boston caught an easy matchup on Saturday and won…Tampa also keeps hanging in there playing better than I anticipated after losing Soriano, Carlos Pena and Matt Garza (who looked great pitching a complete game 1-0 loss for the Cubs).
Nunez has had an incredible offensive performance against the Mets going 7 for 8 with a HR and 3 doubles in the two games. He also was robbed of a line drive for his only out that probably would have been at least a double. When Girardi was asked about what he will do at SS he laughed and responded Jeter is our SS and then gave his usual BS answer about how Jeter has been our SS forever and he will be our SS when he comes back. Now, I am not ready to give Nunez our SS starting job because of a few games, but not because Jeter deserves to hold it, but because Nunez simply is not a professional defensive SS at this point of his career and I have concerns he isn’t fluid enough to be there on an everyday basis. It is possible that he has played so many positions he can’t get comfortable, but the fluidity is still an issue. Jeter is not a good defensive SS, but he is a SS who makes the plays within his lack of range area at a very high rate. When you combine average defense (at best) with sub .700 OPS that is NOT a valuable player. The issue is we have nobody better right now. Of course, if Nunez would hit .339 with some power (as he has during Jeter being gone) one could make a case that he deserves to play over Jeter. I am fine playing Jeter for now, but I would get Nunez AB’s and rest the starters; he should be playing against every lefty. Oh and Jeter should not bat leadoff against righties…no way I would lead him off against righties. I believe there is little chance Girardi will be smart about this and agree with me though. Make the move now so you don’t have to do it after he breaks 3000 hits.
Not sure if anyone is aware but Cory Wade has now pitched 8 scoreless innings for us allowing only 5 hits while walking only 1. He is not overpowering, but he throws strikes and switches up the speeds and planes he throws. His career ERA in limited innings (107) is 2.97 and looks like a decent middle guy. BTW, his career WHIP is 1.03 so he doesn’t allow a lot of base runners and really limits his walks. I have not analyzed his pitching too much as of yet, but he has done a nice job and the limited history shows he is deserving of a spot. He just turned 28 and had a very good year with the Dodgers in 2008, pitched only 28 innings in 2009 and got injured without pitching at all in 2010. We really need to give Cashman and his team a lot of credit this year. I also believe that Larry Roethschild deserves a lot of credit as the pitching has been excellent all year.
Those of you who have read this blog remember me talking about one of the things ARod just does not do well and that is his feel for tagging runners. Many times he fields the ball too far in front (like Jeter) or is stiff on the tag (also like Jeter) and Friday night you saw him come up on the throw and miss the tag on Reyes. Fortunately the home plate umpire who covered on the play could not see the missed tag. BTW, ARod is still not great on popups (even though he hasn't missed any this year), but outside of that he is remarkably really aware about everything else in the game and has fantastic instincts.
Boston caught an easy matchup on Saturday and won…Tampa also keeps hanging in there playing better than I anticipated after losing Soriano, Carlos Pena and Matt Garza (who looked great pitching a complete game 1-0 loss for the Cubs).
Saturday, July 2, 2011
The Genius Maker #49
I have not been able to watch the last few games due to travel and only saw highlights so I will comment on a few trends and some questions people have sent as well as some random thoughts…in no order…
We are now at the 80 game mark; only one game shy of the half way mark…this will help with some trends.
The Yanks are 12-3 since Jeter went on the DL. Before we throw Jeter under the bus, I think it is a little coincidence, a little more having Gardner lead off rather than Jeter against righties and mostly the competition. Unfortunately, Jeter is our best SS right now, which is sad, especially against righties. Pena is the best player defensively, but hits even less than Jeter (although against righties he may be on par right now) and Nunez just isn’t getting it done defensively and more important just looks a little too stiff defensively at SS. His offense is also nothing to write home about with an OPS under .700 (even after his 4 hit game). I am not saying Nunez might not have a bright future, the guy has just turned 24, but it might be more utility or at a non SS position. He could also improve defensively, but some guys just look more fluid than he does at SS. Nunez has done well against lefties this year with an OPS of .830.
The Yanks should do what I have been saying for a year and that is leading Gardner off against righties and Jeter against lefties. If the Yanks don’t make the switch when Jeter comes back now, they will struggle with doing it later (and my entire issue with Girardi is it takes him FAR too long to see the obvious things).
I was reading the paper and looked at the disabled list. The Yanks had 11 guys on it and the closest team, the Pirates, had 9.
Colon is scheduled to pitch today. I am sure you are like me and are really hoping he just continuous what he was doing. If you remember in pre-season I said I really liked his stuff well before he had done anything and in fact was statistically doing worse than others. His stuff shouldn’t have suffered from the hamstring, but a guy with past arm problems gives one pause when a hamstring can impact the leg lift and stride which causes the arm to either lag or be out in front of where you want it to be…and thus put too much pressure on it. Hopefully, he is locked on his mechanics and he doesn’t compensate with them.
The Yanks picked up Mitre for Cash and dropped Buddy Carlyle. Not sure Mitre will stay with Colon and then Hughes coming off the DL (hopefully followed by Soriano, Feliciano and Marte), but as I said from the moment they picked Carlyle up, I had no idea why they bothered? Either way, Mitre for Carlyle is a good move.
Considering the Yanks are 1-8 against the Red Sox and the injuries to the pitchers, it is pretty encouraging we are 2.5 games in first place. The Red Sox have gained 7 games on us in h2h play yet are 9.5 games behind us for every other game.
I have written this in the past, but wanted to bring up the Expected win total (Bill James’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage) and how it relates toward the standings. The basic idea is that for every 10 runs you score more than you allow the expected win total should be 1 over .500. For example, the Yanks have scored 119 more than they have allowed and have played 80 games. Therefore at “120” the Yanks should have 12 games above .500 or 12 games greater than 40 and their expected win total should be 52 (we have 49 wins). This is a positive in that one could argue the Yanks are a little unlucky because the expected win totals give a better future predictor than the actual win totals. Of course other trends such as are your players playing above or below expectations are an even larger predicting gauge in my view. There are a few more complicated %’s that are used in the actual stat that can change the win/loss but almost all the time it stays the same or adjusts by only 1 so the above method works well. The Yanks Expected win loss did move by 1 as it shows them at 53 (or 4 off)...which is also rare in that only 3 teams have an expected win loss that varies more than 3 off their actual. Let’s look at a few other teams:
Boston has won 47 and should have 49.
Tampa has won 45 and should have won 44
Minnesota has won 35 and should have won 31
San Fran has won 47 and should have won 42(this could make that race very tight in the 2nd half)
Tex is on pace for 50 homers and 130 RBI (OPS of .897)
Granderson ‘s OPS is .938 and is the only Yankee above .900
Gardner is on pace for only 40 SB’s. I felt he was a lock for 50 if he played every day. I still think he could have a shot at 50 if he leads off.
It may surprise some people but Posada has a higher OPS than Russell Martin .746 - .730 and they have the same amount of AB’s. If you take the SB’s Martin has his OPS would be ever so slightly higher. It would be better if they each were about .800.
Andrew Jones has not been very good this year, but he does have an OPS of .811 against lefties (a pathetic .311 against righties in 17 AB’s). With Nunez doing well against lefties, he may be better off playing LF instead of Jones and this would free up a spot when Chavez comes back. Jones has not been good, but has been adequate against lefties only. Overall, not as valuable as one would want for a roster spot; Jones is an old 34.
Colon can make us make us feel real good today!
We are now at the 80 game mark; only one game shy of the half way mark…this will help with some trends.
The Yanks are 12-3 since Jeter went on the DL. Before we throw Jeter under the bus, I think it is a little coincidence, a little more having Gardner lead off rather than Jeter against righties and mostly the competition. Unfortunately, Jeter is our best SS right now, which is sad, especially against righties. Pena is the best player defensively, but hits even less than Jeter (although against righties he may be on par right now) and Nunez just isn’t getting it done defensively and more important just looks a little too stiff defensively at SS. His offense is also nothing to write home about with an OPS under .700 (even after his 4 hit game). I am not saying Nunez might not have a bright future, the guy has just turned 24, but it might be more utility or at a non SS position. He could also improve defensively, but some guys just look more fluid than he does at SS. Nunez has done well against lefties this year with an OPS of .830.
The Yanks should do what I have been saying for a year and that is leading Gardner off against righties and Jeter against lefties. If the Yanks don’t make the switch when Jeter comes back now, they will struggle with doing it later (and my entire issue with Girardi is it takes him FAR too long to see the obvious things).
I was reading the paper and looked at the disabled list. The Yanks had 11 guys on it and the closest team, the Pirates, had 9.
Colon is scheduled to pitch today. I am sure you are like me and are really hoping he just continuous what he was doing. If you remember in pre-season I said I really liked his stuff well before he had done anything and in fact was statistically doing worse than others. His stuff shouldn’t have suffered from the hamstring, but a guy with past arm problems gives one pause when a hamstring can impact the leg lift and stride which causes the arm to either lag or be out in front of where you want it to be…and thus put too much pressure on it. Hopefully, he is locked on his mechanics and he doesn’t compensate with them.
The Yanks picked up Mitre for Cash and dropped Buddy Carlyle. Not sure Mitre will stay with Colon and then Hughes coming off the DL (hopefully followed by Soriano, Feliciano and Marte), but as I said from the moment they picked Carlyle up, I had no idea why they bothered? Either way, Mitre for Carlyle is a good move.
Considering the Yanks are 1-8 against the Red Sox and the injuries to the pitchers, it is pretty encouraging we are 2.5 games in first place. The Red Sox have gained 7 games on us in h2h play yet are 9.5 games behind us for every other game.
I have written this in the past, but wanted to bring up the Expected win total (Bill James’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage) and how it relates toward the standings. The basic idea is that for every 10 runs you score more than you allow the expected win total should be 1 over .500. For example, the Yanks have scored 119 more than they have allowed and have played 80 games. Therefore at “120” the Yanks should have 12 games above .500 or 12 games greater than 40 and their expected win total should be 52 (we have 49 wins). This is a positive in that one could argue the Yanks are a little unlucky because the expected win totals give a better future predictor than the actual win totals. Of course other trends such as are your players playing above or below expectations are an even larger predicting gauge in my view. There are a few more complicated %’s that are used in the actual stat that can change the win/loss but almost all the time it stays the same or adjusts by only 1 so the above method works well. The Yanks Expected win loss did move by 1 as it shows them at 53 (or 4 off)...which is also rare in that only 3 teams have an expected win loss that varies more than 3 off their actual. Let’s look at a few other teams:
Boston has won 47 and should have 49.
Tampa has won 45 and should have won 44
Minnesota has won 35 and should have won 31
San Fran has won 47 and should have won 42(this could make that race very tight in the 2nd half)
Tex is on pace for 50 homers and 130 RBI (OPS of .897)
Granderson ‘s OPS is .938 and is the only Yankee above .900
Gardner is on pace for only 40 SB’s. I felt he was a lock for 50 if he played every day. I still think he could have a shot at 50 if he leads off.
It may surprise some people but Posada has a higher OPS than Russell Martin .746 - .730 and they have the same amount of AB’s. If you take the SB’s Martin has his OPS would be ever so slightly higher. It would be better if they each were about .800.
Andrew Jones has not been very good this year, but he does have an OPS of .811 against lefties (a pathetic .311 against righties in 17 AB’s). With Nunez doing well against lefties, he may be better off playing LF instead of Jones and this would free up a spot when Chavez comes back. Jones has not been good, but has been adequate against lefties only. Overall, not as valuable as one would want for a roster spot; Jones is an old 34.
Colon can make us make us feel real good today!
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The Genius Maker #48
The Yanks offense did its job against Greinke. Remember there were some people who wanted the Yanks to get Greinke. His record is good this year, but he has not pitched well.
Freddie Garcia did a good job allowing 8 hits in 6 innings but only 2 runs because of no walks. He is 7-6 for us, but his ERA is better than we could have hoped at 3.28.
Don’t look now but Swisher has his OPS up to .800!
The Yanks are 13-4 since their last beating by Boston. After Boston got shut out on a 2 hitter by Cliff Lee last night, the Yanks are now 1.5 games in first place. Imagine where we would be if we didn’t lose 7 games in a row to Boston (1-8 this year)?
Freddie Garcia did a good job allowing 8 hits in 6 innings but only 2 runs because of no walks. He is 7-6 for us, but his ERA is better than we could have hoped at 3.28.
Don’t look now but Swisher has his OPS up to .800!
The Yanks are 13-4 since their last beating by Boston. After Boston got shut out on a 2 hitter by Cliff Lee last night, the Yanks are now 1.5 games in first place. Imagine where we would be if we didn’t lose 7 games in a row to Boston (1-8 this year)?
Sunday, June 26, 2011
The Genius Maker #47
The Yanks found themselves down 3-0 after Wiggington homered on a fastball that was supposed to be outside but it leaked over the plate and then on an 0-2 pitch a fastball that was supposed to be outside for a ball ended up leaking into the middle of the plate. The 3rd run came in after a walk, as SB, a GB to move the runner over and a sac fly.
The yanks were getting no hit until the 5th inning when Cano lined a hard single to left. This was important because their pitcher Nicasio had yet to pitch from the stretch. He fell behind Swisher 3-0 and Swish was given the green light, but unfortunately pulled the pitch foul. Fortunately, the next pitch was right down the middle and Swisher didn’t miss it to close the gap to 3-2. Posada then followed with a solo shot to tie the score.
Interestingly, those were the two guys I singled out yesterday as swinging well…and it continued.
The tie was short lived as Martin/Nova didn’t learn their lesson as they gave Wigginton another fastball that he cleared the fence with. I was upset here as I felt a slider was the best pitch based on the swings that Wiggington had. In fact, they went to the slider in a previous AB and he dribbled one down to ARod. I thought with 2 outs and nobody on this was a poor decision and it cost us.
The Yanks responded with Gardner beating out his 2nd bunt this series and then stole 2nd leading to a run after ARod knocked him in.
Logan did a really nice job in the 7th coming in with a runner on 1st and getting 2 outs before Martin threw one into CF moving the runner to 3rd. Logan then was able to get Helton to ground out to end the threat. On the bounced throw form Martin, Flaherty made the perfect comment when he said, “Martin is mad at himself as he had the runner with a normal throw, but he would have liked to have his SS pick that play.” Nunez has shown to not be reliable at SS and his play around the bag has not been that solid either. Earlier in the game, he let a groundball go right under his glove on an easy DP.
In the bottom of the 7th Posada worked a great walk seeing 8 pitches before getting to first. I would have pinch run right there, but Girardi decided to wait until Posada got to 2nd. Fortunately for us, Posada got there as Martin crushed a ball that ate up Tulowitsky at SS. Girardi then made his move to Dickerson, who easily scored on Nunez’ ground ball. Posada might have scored on the play, but with Posada’s glacier like speed, I am glad we didn’t get to see the outcome.
With a 5-4 lead Robertson pitched a clean 8th with 2 K’s, Teixeira added a solo HR (his league leading 23rd), and the Rivera closed out Old Timer’s Day by striking out the side to end the game.
Boston and TB won as well.
The yanks were getting no hit until the 5th inning when Cano lined a hard single to left. This was important because their pitcher Nicasio had yet to pitch from the stretch. He fell behind Swisher 3-0 and Swish was given the green light, but unfortunately pulled the pitch foul. Fortunately, the next pitch was right down the middle and Swisher didn’t miss it to close the gap to 3-2. Posada then followed with a solo shot to tie the score.
Interestingly, those were the two guys I singled out yesterday as swinging well…and it continued.
The tie was short lived as Martin/Nova didn’t learn their lesson as they gave Wigginton another fastball that he cleared the fence with. I was upset here as I felt a slider was the best pitch based on the swings that Wiggington had. In fact, they went to the slider in a previous AB and he dribbled one down to ARod. I thought with 2 outs and nobody on this was a poor decision and it cost us.
The Yanks responded with Gardner beating out his 2nd bunt this series and then stole 2nd leading to a run after ARod knocked him in.
Logan did a really nice job in the 7th coming in with a runner on 1st and getting 2 outs before Martin threw one into CF moving the runner to 3rd. Logan then was able to get Helton to ground out to end the threat. On the bounced throw form Martin, Flaherty made the perfect comment when he said, “Martin is mad at himself as he had the runner with a normal throw, but he would have liked to have his SS pick that play.” Nunez has shown to not be reliable at SS and his play around the bag has not been that solid either. Earlier in the game, he let a groundball go right under his glove on an easy DP.
In the bottom of the 7th Posada worked a great walk seeing 8 pitches before getting to first. I would have pinch run right there, but Girardi decided to wait until Posada got to 2nd. Fortunately for us, Posada got there as Martin crushed a ball that ate up Tulowitsky at SS. Girardi then made his move to Dickerson, who easily scored on Nunez’ ground ball. Posada might have scored on the play, but with Posada’s glacier like speed, I am glad we didn’t get to see the outcome.
With a 5-4 lead Robertson pitched a clean 8th with 2 K’s, Teixeira added a solo HR (his league leading 23rd), and the Rivera closed out Old Timer’s Day by striking out the side to end the game.
Boston and TB won as well.
The Genius Maker #46
Before the game started I said to my daughter that this was a Yankee game they should win 75% of the time. Coming off a loss with CC going against a weak pitcher sounded very good to me. Not only that, the Rockies are vulnerable against lefties as they start a lot of them. The only non starter playing was Cervelli and I felt good about this game. I even checked the line which was -240 to win 100…so why not put a few doughnuts down based on my feelings?
CC came out firing hitting 97 in the first inning. When he is pumping like that, he is really tough. He threw both his harder and softer breaking ball well, but still didn’t have his “A” changeup. Either way, he flew threw their lineup pitching a great game. He only threw 103 pitches and could have easily had a complete game, but Girardi decided to let Buddy Carlyle allow 2 runs in the 9th to make the score look a little closer than the 8-3 blow out was.
ARod had a really good game, but looked hobbled on a standup double. I was worried but he did score on a very shallow fly ball (pop up) by Swisher so he is probably just a little banged up. Posada swung the bat well and now has his OPS up to a still low .718…but in the month of June his OPS is .900. His bad start will pull the numbers down all year, but lately he has been good. Swisher has had an excellent June also with a 1.052 OPS.
Cano had another rough game…I think he needs to work on his mental game; the guy has the ability to be the best in the game, but he gets himself out. His .840 OPS is still solid, but he should be above .900 with his talent. He is basically on his career OPS and at 28 he should be having his prime years now and through the next few years. Surprisingly, he has hit lefties well this year (.934 OPS) compared to righties (.797). He will be OK, but we could use the Cano I expect him to be.
Old Yankee Jeff Karstens picked up the win against Boston last night and combined with the Yankees win flipped the standings with us back in 1st. BTW, I do list the standings on the website on the top right. It is a 3 team race so I am only listing NY, Boston and TB.
I am a few doughnuts richer this morning!
CC came out firing hitting 97 in the first inning. When he is pumping like that, he is really tough. He threw both his harder and softer breaking ball well, but still didn’t have his “A” changeup. Either way, he flew threw their lineup pitching a great game. He only threw 103 pitches and could have easily had a complete game, but Girardi decided to let Buddy Carlyle allow 2 runs in the 9th to make the score look a little closer than the 8-3 blow out was.
ARod had a really good game, but looked hobbled on a standup double. I was worried but he did score on a very shallow fly ball (pop up) by Swisher so he is probably just a little banged up. Posada swung the bat well and now has his OPS up to a still low .718…but in the month of June his OPS is .900. His bad start will pull the numbers down all year, but lately he has been good. Swisher has had an excellent June also with a 1.052 OPS.
Cano had another rough game…I think he needs to work on his mental game; the guy has the ability to be the best in the game, but he gets himself out. His .840 OPS is still solid, but he should be above .900 with his talent. He is basically on his career OPS and at 28 he should be having his prime years now and through the next few years. Surprisingly, he has hit lefties well this year (.934 OPS) compared to righties (.797). He will be OK, but we could use the Cano I expect him to be.
Old Yankee Jeff Karstens picked up the win against Boston last night and combined with the Yankees win flipped the standings with us back in 1st. BTW, I do list the standings on the website on the top right. It is a 3 team race so I am only listing NY, Boston and TB.
I am a few doughnuts richer this morning!
Saturday, June 25, 2011
The Genius Maker #45
The offense did a poor job again…getting to be a broken record as guys just simply are not performing the way they should. We had some very tough ump calls, specifically Nick Swisher who had 3 very bad pitches called strikes on him, one to put him into a 2 strike hole, one where he struck out on a high changeup and one where the pitch actually barely touched the (inside part) of the opposite batters box. Yes, it was on the “left” side, on the over head angle, of the batters box line for a righty. If it touches the line it is clearly a ball but it crossed over and barely touched the other side. It would have been nice if Burnett got the benefit of a few calls or even calling some pitches that looked good.
In a 4-2 loss every play is important and the Yanks made too many mistakes.
AJ and martin did a very poor job early on throwing way too many fastballs. It was so obvious they should have been using the change and curve more. Almost all the damage was done on fastballs. Later in the game, the Yanks made the adjustment but the 4 runs were in already. Burnett struck out 3 guys in the 6th, but one of them got past Martin as he needed to block and smother the swinging strike. Burnett came back and struck out the next batter (breaking ball) to tie a major league record with 4 strikeouts in one inning.
BTW, I have an NCAA Division I record that is similar to that…meaning it is one that is shared by many. I went an entire year without committing an error. The only difference is that mine could never be broken and someone could strike out 5 batters. I would bet mine has a lot more people in the not so exclusive club though.
Cano, had an awful approach at the plate. It would be really nice if he could actually get to the plate and recognize a pitch as a ball and not swing rather than going up to the plate saying I will not swing at this pitch no matter what. Key spot early on, he swung at a first pitch change out of the strike zone…of course he did hit a line drive that doubled ARod off, but still we had the pitcher with a high pitch count and he was throwing balls…take a pitch or only swing at a pitch you want. Later he did the same thing swinging at a first pitch change out of the zone. Very frustrating.
Tex just didn’t see the ball well as he swung at about 6 changes and curves out of the strike zone.
The team missed some hittable pitches and simply didn’t get the job done…with some help from the umps. We also got a bad call at second base on throw out by Martin. Nunez scooped the ball but in doing so took his mitt up and then had to bring it back down to tag the runner. He did tag him in time and should have been called out as the throw beat him (which usually gives you the benefit of the doubt) and he did tag him before the runner touched the base (which usually means he should be called out). Very frustrating…
I was mentioning how poor I think Cervelli is and I decided to back my comment up with some stats. Defense – He receives the ball well and blocks balls well, but he is erratic with his throws. He has only thrown out 2 guys out of 21 (worst in baseball for any catcher that has thrown out anyone this year) and he has the 2nd lowest fielding % of catchers in baseball with 5 errors (3rd most) in limited play. The guy with lowest fielding % has thrown out 40% of SB attempts though. His .501 OPS is 69th for catchers…yeah, that is pretty horrible... For comparison, Jose Molina who left us because his offense was so bad, has a career OPS of .627. Martin has thrown out 30% of the runners as a comp with the same pitchers.
Back on the horse today with CC going!
In a 4-2 loss every play is important and the Yanks made too many mistakes.
AJ and martin did a very poor job early on throwing way too many fastballs. It was so obvious they should have been using the change and curve more. Almost all the damage was done on fastballs. Later in the game, the Yanks made the adjustment but the 4 runs were in already. Burnett struck out 3 guys in the 6th, but one of them got past Martin as he needed to block and smother the swinging strike. Burnett came back and struck out the next batter (breaking ball) to tie a major league record with 4 strikeouts in one inning.
BTW, I have an NCAA Division I record that is similar to that…meaning it is one that is shared by many. I went an entire year without committing an error. The only difference is that mine could never be broken and someone could strike out 5 batters. I would bet mine has a lot more people in the not so exclusive club though.
Cano, had an awful approach at the plate. It would be really nice if he could actually get to the plate and recognize a pitch as a ball and not swing rather than going up to the plate saying I will not swing at this pitch no matter what. Key spot early on, he swung at a first pitch change out of the strike zone…of course he did hit a line drive that doubled ARod off, but still we had the pitcher with a high pitch count and he was throwing balls…take a pitch or only swing at a pitch you want. Later he did the same thing swinging at a first pitch change out of the zone. Very frustrating.
Tex just didn’t see the ball well as he swung at about 6 changes and curves out of the strike zone.
The team missed some hittable pitches and simply didn’t get the job done…with some help from the umps. We also got a bad call at second base on throw out by Martin. Nunez scooped the ball but in doing so took his mitt up and then had to bring it back down to tag the runner. He did tag him in time and should have been called out as the throw beat him (which usually gives you the benefit of the doubt) and he did tag him before the runner touched the base (which usually means he should be called out). Very frustrating…
I was mentioning how poor I think Cervelli is and I decided to back my comment up with some stats. Defense – He receives the ball well and blocks balls well, but he is erratic with his throws. He has only thrown out 2 guys out of 21 (worst in baseball for any catcher that has thrown out anyone this year) and he has the 2nd lowest fielding % of catchers in baseball with 5 errors (3rd most) in limited play. The guy with lowest fielding % has thrown out 40% of SB attempts though. His .501 OPS is 69th for catchers…yeah, that is pretty horrible... For comparison, Jose Molina who left us because his offense was so bad, has a career OPS of .627. Martin has thrown out 30% of the runners as a comp with the same pitchers.
Back on the horse today with CC going!
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
The Genius Maker #44
On Monday night the Yanks scored 4 runs in the first inning and like a lot of the games, they didn't do much the rest of the game. They held on to win 5-3 as Rivera showed why he is a Genius Maker by not allowing the poor move by Girardi in taking out Nova to cost the Yanks a win. 105 pitches and 7 straight scoreless innings after allowing 1 in the first was a time to let the kid finish the game…at the least let him face the righty leading off the inning. Then after Logan hit the lefty on the first pitch, I thought he would leave Logan in to face another lefty…instead whistle for the Genius Maker to save the day.
As for the game, outside of the excellent first inning, the Yanks only run scored came in the 8th inning on a gift by the SS who failed to catch a throw form the catcher where Granderson was dead to rights. Not only was Grandy safe on the error, but he went to 3rd on the error and then scored on a wild pitch. That was painful, if you were a Reds fan.
Andrew Jones didn’t run out a DP where he must have thought there were two outs. After the play they showed Girardi checking on Jones’ ankle, but Jones stayed in the game. I think that was all BS because if his ankle was bad he would be out of a 4-1 game for defensive replacement. I think he just had a brain cramp that was pretty sad.
The final piece saw Nunez picked off. Nunex also made a very nice dive in the 9th inning, but should have tried to get the out at 3rd instead of throwing very late to first…but he might have been safe at 3rd anyway.
It was great to see Nova go 8 innings and not walk a batter. He worked his slider more than usual and it was effective. If he doesn’t walk batters he will do very well!
Crazy stat – On the Yanks pitching staff right now, Nova has the highest ERA…it is only 4.13. That is pretty darn great.
As for the game, outside of the excellent first inning, the Yanks only run scored came in the 8th inning on a gift by the SS who failed to catch a throw form the catcher where Granderson was dead to rights. Not only was Grandy safe on the error, but he went to 3rd on the error and then scored on a wild pitch. That was painful, if you were a Reds fan.
Andrew Jones didn’t run out a DP where he must have thought there were two outs. After the play they showed Girardi checking on Jones’ ankle, but Jones stayed in the game. I think that was all BS because if his ankle was bad he would be out of a 4-1 game for defensive replacement. I think he just had a brain cramp that was pretty sad.
The final piece saw Nunez picked off. Nunex also made a very nice dive in the 9th inning, but should have tried to get the out at 3rd instead of throwing very late to first…but he might have been safe at 3rd anyway.
It was great to see Nova go 8 innings and not walk a batter. He worked his slider more than usual and it was effective. If he doesn’t walk batters he will do very well!
Crazy stat – On the Yanks pitching staff right now, Nova has the highest ERA…it is only 4.13. That is pretty darn great.
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