Wednesday, October 28, 2009

WORLD SERIES pre game 1

Well we made it to the big show! I know if we don’t win we will all be very disappointed, but it has been a very good year and the moves made to get here were good ones. The Phillies made some great moves as well getting Ibanez and their ace Cliff Lee.

I thought I would take a look at the matchups a little bit so that everyone could have a feel for why moves are made and what to expect based on the yearly totals as well looking at past years to make sure trends are real and not just a one year aberration.

The most important piece of information to know is that Ryan Howard is MUCH better against righties than lefties. In fact, he has one of the larger discrepancies you will find in a star player. His OPS against righties is a superb 1.088 and his OPS against lefties is a weak .654! The Yankees should have Marte and Coke face him every single time.

Cliff Lee is better against lefties in a similar way that Saunders was better against lefties, but Lee is a better pitcher.

Cole Hamels had an average year with a .708 OPS against lefties and a .765 against righties.

Brad Lidge is their closer and he was awful this year, including blowing saves against us in 3 games. But he has picked it up in the postseason and has been tough on righties in his career with an excellent slider.

The other relievers are Madsen and Park. Madsen is the better guy with a .634 OPS against righties and a .710 against lefties, but he is not great. Park is similar with a .678 against righties and a .752 against lefties.

Utley (Lefty) is better against lefties over the last 3 years, but not very significant. A guy like Coke who isn’t as lopsided as Marte in terms of platooning is probably not the best matchup. However, a guy like Rivera and Robertson, who are both better against lefties are good matchups. Utley is a very good player.

Rollins (s) Rollins got off to a terrible start but then hit his usual career .800 OPS from that point on. Pretty equal overall over the years. He is their best base stealer

Ibanez (lefty) has a .900 OPS and is pretty equal

Catcher Carlos Ruiz. (Righty) .780 OPS – His OPS against lefties is very good at .894 and is mediocre against righties at .742.

Shane Victorino (Switch) hits lefties better .844 compared to .787.

Werth – Crushes lefties and 1.08 and still is fairly solid against righties at .805

Dobbs and Stairs are the lefties off the bench and they both hit righties better, but neither is a particularly good hitter and would not scare me with any matchup. Being lefties Robertson and Rivera matchup the best.

Ben Francisco LF – is a righty who is better against lefties.

As you can tell, the Phillies are a better hitting team against lefties almost down the line with the one huge exception of Howard.

As for the Yankees there are a couple of surprises you may not be aware of.

CC is very tough on lefties at .560 against and a still very good .679 against righties.

Burnett is surprisingly much better against lefties with an OPS against of .655 against lefties and .815 against righties. I know he got hit for 5 HR’s during the regular season (although we were not rolling yet) against the Phillies, but on paper he should matchup well against them. Now the righty lefty trends are very real, but sometimes one player just sees the ball well off of a pitcher. After one bad start I don’t think that means anything and if Burnett is on he should be able to pitch well to this very good lineup.

I mentioned this before but Robertson is .601 against lefties and .751 against righties. He is a guy we should be using more in this series.

Joba is fairly equal against both

Hughes is much better against righties and should be used against Ruiz and Werth. Hughes is .546 against righties and .740 against lefties.

Rivera is .511 against lefties and .586 against righties

Aceves has been good against lefties and decent against righties. His matchup is better than Gaudin's

Gaudin is .667 against righties and .823 against lefties. I don’t really like his matchup as a starter, but he could be used like Hughes or if we really need him to start.

As for our hitters, the guys who are worth noting as having any significant differences against lefties and righties are Damon who is .776 against lefties and .889 against righties (Not the best matchup against Lee) and Jeter, 1.01 against lefties and .816 against righties. The rest of the team is pretty much the same although Posada is a little better against righties and Matsui has hit lefties better this year.

There has been some talk about what rotation the Yankees should go with. I think there is no question what we do the first 4 games. CC, Burnett, Pettitte and CC again. At that point, I would see how things have gone and who has pitched well etc…Depending on the situation I might start Aceves. I know he has not pitches well, but I like his matchup better than Gaudin’s. Most likely I would pitch Burnett on 3 days rest and Pettitte on 3 days rest. This is the World Series and it is not that big a deal for one start. The way I see it none of our pitchers will have to pitch more than once on 3 days rest J

The Phillies are a very good hitting team and they are the defending World Champs so there is no intimidation. However, I think our pitching is better than theirs. After Cliff Lee there is nobody who scares me (including their pen) and it is up to our offense to put up solid production 5+ runs should happen if they are doing their job.

The Philly offense is really good, but I like our team a lot and I would hope we handle them just as we did Anaheim . There should be some more great games.

Either way, let’s enjoy the ride...
The Genius Maker tm is a tribute to Mariano Rivera who makes coaches look a like a genius...

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